Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 140432
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1132 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

This afternoon a cold front extending from along the IA/MO border,
thru central KS, to the OK Panhandle was applying the brakes as it
ventured into central KS. The front will play a key role in the
forecast this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

This weekend:
The nearly stationary front may advance slowly SE this eve as a
deepening mid to upper deck trof digs while crossing the Great
Basin. But as the upper-deck trof digs further as it approaches
the Rockies, the front would transition into a warm variant late
this eve. The onsetting southerly flow would enable greater
moisture to spread across most of central & all of eastern KS
throughout the night & Sat. The approaching mid-level trof would
induce increasing lift to generate scattered thunderstorms that`ll
increase as tonight progresses. As the continually strengthening,
positively-tilted mid-upper trof pushes further over the Northern
& Central Plains, the front would transition back into a cold
variant Sat afternoon. The front would surge SE into central KS
late Sat afternoon, then across south-central & southeast KS Sat
evening. SE of the front, the very warm/hot, moisture-rich airmass
would team with the mid- upper trof to generate thunderstorms
across all of KICT Country Sat & Sat eve. SE of the front,
instability would greatly increase & with the approaching mid-
upper trof, strong-severe thunderstorms are still anticipated Sat
afternoon & evening. The accelerating cold front should confine
most thunderstorms SE of the turnpike by early Sat evening. While
both large hail, perhaps as large as ping pong balls & damaging
winds are expected Sat afternoon, damaging 60 to 70 mph winds
would become the primary severe mode early Sat evening. All
thunderstorms should vacate southeast KS by mid-night Sat with
only post-frontal showers across primarily Southeast KS late sat
night. Another major concern is that of strong northwest winds.
The high pressure pushing toward the Southern Plains would produce
a rapidly tightening pressure gradient Sat eve. Winds from 35-45
kts will be just off the deck & should easily reach the deck Sat
eve, especially along & W of the I-35/I-135 corridor. As such have
increased winds across these areas with winds reaching advisory
criteria from ~7-10PM. Skies will clear quickly Sun morning.

Mon & Mon Night:
Quiet weather dominates as strong high pressure spreads SE across
KS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Southerly flow quickly returns by Tue morning which would allow
temps to slowly rebound as the work-week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Light north-northeasterly winds are expected behind a stalled
front tonight, with light southerly winds in southeast Kansas at
CNU. Scattered, elevated thunderstorms should develop in the early
hours of Saturday morning across south-central and northeast
portions of Kansas. This convection is most likely to impact KHUT,
KICT, and KSLN, with a lesser chance at the other airports. The
front is forecast to lift slowly northward to central Kansas
Saturday morning, but may be delayed somewhat by elevated
convection tonight, depending on the extent of convection
coverage. LIFR is expected for KRSL and KGBD around 10Z Saturday
morning, with areas of patchy fog possible. Showers and
thunderstorms could impact airports Saturday afternoon and
evening, especially at KICT, KHUT, and KSLN. Wind gusts in excess
of 25kt are expected at area airports, with strongest gusts of
near 40kt near KRSL and KGBD around 22Z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  81  47  63 /  30  70  70   0
Hutchinson      59  77  44  62 /  50  70  50   0
Newton          61  79  44  61 /  40  70  70   0
ElDorado        63  83  46  62 /  20  70  80   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  87  47  63 /  20  60  90  10
Russell         54  68  40  63 /  50  50  20   0
Great Bend      54  73  41  62 /  50  50  20   0
Salina          57  75  44  62 /  60  70  30   0
McPherson       58  77  44  61 /  50  70  40   0
Coffeyville     69  89  51  63 /  10  30  90  20
Chanute         67  88  49  62 /  10  50  90  10
Iola            66  88  49  62 /  10  50  90  10
Parsons-KPPF    68  89  51  63 /  10  40  90  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...TAV



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