Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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453
FXUS63 KICT 161938
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
238 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Convective trends this evening is main concern then precip chances
with next cold front on Friday. A very unstable airmass and strong
deep layer shear resides along/ahead of the cold front moving into
southern Kansas. Towering cumulus were seen on visible satellite
roughly along/just south of the highway 50 corridor where some
deep convection was beginning to blossom on radar which is where
the latest HRRR/RAP develop strong/severe convection during the
late afternoon. Large hail and very efficient heavy rainfall are
expected with the most intense storms through the early evening
with down-burst damaging winds also possible. The going flash
flood watch seems reasonable for this evening/tonight for locales
generally east of greater Wichita. Drier, more stable air will
advect south in the wake of the front for Thursday, though
temperatures will remain rather warm with seasonable values. The
next upper trof will move across the Upper Midwest/western Great
Lakes Friday into Friday night. This will send another modest cold
front south across Kansas. The better chances for precip may come
in the form of elevated convection late Thursday night into
Friday morning for locations west of the Kansas turnpike with
modest chances for surface based storms with the front late Friday
across southern and eastern Kansas. Dry weather is still expected
for Saturday with temperatures remaining near or slightly above
seasonal climo.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Upper ridging will reside across the southern Plains Sunday into
Monday with the main belt of westerlies aloft along the northern
tier of states. There remains general consensus in amplification
of the upper flow regime with troughing across the Great Lakes
by Tuesday into Wednesday. This may allow another weak cold front
to sag south into Kansas with modest precip chances.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Main aviation concern will be late afternoon/evening storms.

Morning storms are finally pushing out of southeast KS. Cold front
currently stretches from just south of KSLN to between KGBD and
KHUT. This front is expected to continue tracking southeast this
afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front in a
couple hours, generally along the KS Turnpike, and track southeast
into the evening hours. If KICT does see storms, it is not
expected to last long, as the front should be southeast of the
area by 21z. KCNU will have the best chance to see more widespread
storms generally after 22z with some severe storms possible.

Some MVFR cigs are in place over central KS behind the front and
are expected to remain in place for at least a couple more hours.
Some of this may try to work into KHUT and KICT after the front
moves through. By 06z, confidence is high that only very far
southeast will have a chance at storms as drier air spills into
the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  89  67  90 /  40   0  20  20
Hutchinson      64  89  66  90 /  20   0  30  20
Newton          64  88  66  89 /  30   0  20  20
ElDorado        65  88  66  89 /  60   0  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   67  89  68  90 /  60   0  20  20
Russell         60  90  65  93 /  10   0  40  20
Great Bend      61  89  65  92 /  10   0  40  20
Salina          63  90  66  92 /  20   0  30  30
McPherson       63  88  65  90 /  20   0  30  20
Coffeyville     69  88  66  88 /  80  10   0  30
Chanute         68  87  65  87 /  80  10   0  30
Iola            68  86  64  86 /  80   0   0  30
Parsons-KPPF    69  87  66  87 /  80  10   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ070>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL



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