Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN ISOLD -SHRA IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BUT THE ISOLD NATURE
OBVIOUSLY DICTATES LEAVING "VCSH" OUT THE KCNU TERMINAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS SC & SE KS BUT NO MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE BUT SPEEDS WOULD BE <10KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  52  77  55 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  50  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          75  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        76  51  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  54  77  55 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         74  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          74  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  52  75  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         75  49  73  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  73  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  50  74  50 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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