Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 121758
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Above normal temperatures will return to Kansas today as southerly
winds increase and bring warmer air into the region. Meanwhile
current early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper
level trough over the northwestern states, which move eastward for
Friday into the weekend across the central plains. This will become
the weather maker for Kansas and bring increasing rain chances
along with it. We could see rain chances beginning as early as
Friday night for central Kansas, however the better chances for
more widespread showers and storms will arrive on Saturday
afternoon/night. The models are in decent agreement with richer
moisture streaming into the region along with increasing winds
aloft which could set the stage for strong/severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A cold front will race southward across Kansas on Sunday with rain
chances tapering off across southeast Kansas Sunday morning in the
wake of the upper level system. Confidence is high that dry and
quiet weather conditions will prevail for Monday-Wednesday, as rich
gulf moisture is shoved well south of the region by this weekend`s
weather system. Will take some time before the better quality
moisture streams back northward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

There are 2 major concerns:
1) Low-level wind shear that`ll develop ~03Z in nearly all areas
with ~40kts likely. Direction to veer slightly from ~180 to ~210
at that time. 2) A high potential for LIFR cigs across C KS twd
12Z after a strong SE-moving cold front creeps into these areas.
Have sufficient confidence to intro 500-800cigs to all C KS TAF
sites as the passage of the front would set up a strong inversion
AOB 2,000ft. It doesn`t appear the front will make sufficient SE
advancement to place KHUT & KICT in IFR cig status twd the end of
the 18Z TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  62  85  63 /   0   0  10  20
Hutchinson      81  61  79  59 /   0   0  10  30
Newton          78  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  30
ElDorado        78  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   80  62  85  66 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         82  56  68  54 /   0   0  10  40
Great Bend      82  57  71  55 /   0   0  10  30
Salina          81  61  74  58 /   0   0  10  50
McPherson       80  60  77  58 /   0   0  10  40
Coffeyville     79  62  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         77  61  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            77  61  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    78  62  86  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...EPS



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