Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH
WOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE RICHER/DEEPER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THUS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STRONGER
SHEAR ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR EARLY IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR
KANSAS THEREAFTER. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DRIER AIR INTO REGION ALONG WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY FOR THE FIRST
18 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY MORNING
CONCERN WILL BE SOME MORNING FOG OVER SE KS...THAT MAY RESTRICT
VSBYS TO THE 2-4 MILE RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA IN AND NEAR THE KRSL TAF AFTER 06Z AND AFTER
09Z FOR KSLN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  63  85  65 /   0  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      86  64  83  64 /  10  10  50  50
NEWTON          85  63  83  65 /   0  10  30  60
ELDORADO        86  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  62  84  66 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         85  63  81  59 /  10  50  60  40
GREAT BEND      85  63  82  60 /  10  50  60  40
SALINA          85  64  82  63 /  10  20  60  60
MCPHERSON       85  64  82  64 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     84  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30
CHANUTE         84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            84  60  83  63 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  84  63 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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