Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 021736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED JUST OFF
OF SOUTHERN CA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH TROUGHING STRENGTHENING IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. HOWEVER...FEEL THE MORE LIKELY
PRECIP TYPE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
DRIZZLE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO STRONG WARM ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
280-285K LAYER WHICH WILL BE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME ADVECTION FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL
NOT BE DENSE. THE CHALLENGING PART OF TONIGHTS FORECAST WILL IF
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DRIZZLE TO FREEZE. AT THIS
POINT WILL GO WITH THE THINKING THAT THE WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY MAY EVEN RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE NEAR I-70
WHERE TEMPS MAY OVER NEAR FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE-TUE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
WED MORNING. HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS ON TUE AS THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING. THE NAM IS SLOWER COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND FOR NOW HAVE A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE GFS BASED ON
RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KS...WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TUE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE THE COLDEST THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THESE
EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN A FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...WHICH IS THE LOW 50S. WHILE A
FEW IMPULSES DIVE DOWN IN THE NW FLOW...NONE OF THEM LOOK TO HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. THIS HAS CAUSED
SURFACE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL ALSO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400. CEILINGS AROUND 800 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH
MVFR VSBYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT IN THE AREAS WHERE DRIZZLE IS FORECAST.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH 20 TO 30
KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN KRSL. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

KRC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

HIGHER RH`S AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THE FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL KS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER 1 PM.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT TUE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS...WHERE GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE WED
WHICH WILL KEEP RH`S ON THE HIGH SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  34  48  19 /  20  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      35  34  45  17 /  10  20  10  20
NEWTON          35  34  47  17 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        36  34  49  19 /  20  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  35  50  20 /  20  20  20  30
RUSSELL         34  32  38  14 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      34  33  40  15 /  10  20  10  20
SALINA          36  33  42  15 /  10  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       35  34  45  16 /  10  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     39  36  53  22 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         38  35  52  20 /  20  30  30  30
IOLA            38  35  52  19 /  20  30  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    39  36  53  21 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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