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000
FXUS63 KICT 150010
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
710 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
ADVECT THE MOIST PLUME OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE 1.6-1.9 INCH RANGE OR 170+
PERCENT OF NORMAL. BOTH NAM/GFS INDICATE INCREASING H9-H8 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 09Z AND EXPECTED WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ IMPACTING A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STABILITY PROGS ARE LESS THAN
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A BUOYANT AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS.
MAINTAINED SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY
DRIFTS EASTWARD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS THEME AS A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
1-2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...A POST-FRONTAL STABLE REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

RISING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ANOTHER
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WHILE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 90S TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

MWM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

ALL 5 TERMINALS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE NGT & EARLY
SAT MORNING WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS THAT`LL
THICKEN WHILE SPREADING NE ACROSS KS. SLY WINDS ~20KTS SUSTAINED
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE REGION ON SAT AS A WEAK MID-LVL TROF SCOOTS E OVER WRN KS
THEREBY PUSHING A COLD FRONT E/SE TOWARD CNTRL KS. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCES (ESPECIALLY THE 15/12Z & 15/18Z EDITIONS) WILL COVER THE
PERIODS IN MUCH GREATER DETAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  87  71  89 /  30  40  30  20
HUTCHINSON      74  86  69  91 /  30  40  30  30
NEWTON          74  86  70  88 /  30  40  40  20
ELDORADO        73  87  70  88 /  30  40  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  87  72  90 /  30  40  40  30
RUSSELL         72  87  68  89 /  20  40  30  40
GREAT BEND      72  87  68  89 /  20  40  30  30
SALINA          73  86  69  89 /  20  40  40  30
MCPHERSON       74  86  69  90 /  20  40  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     75  87  72  88 /  20  50  50  40
CHANUTE         74  86  70  87 /  20  50  50  40
IOLA            73  86  70  86 /  20  50  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    75  87  71  88 /  20  50  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES