Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Forecast Headline: The Red Flags are hoisted for all of South-
Central & much of Central KS from 1-7PM Today.

Today:
A broad but intense mid-upper trof is moving east across Southern
Canada on "schedule". At 3 AM CDT, the trof was crossing the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border. As it continues to move east, lower-
deck troffing will stretch from the Northwestern Plains to the TX
Panhandle. This will induce strong warm advection on the strength
of S-SW winds that`ll flirt with Advisory criteria in most areas.
Both will combine to send the Grassland Fire Danger soaring, with
GFDIs likely reaching the lower-mid 70s across South-Central & much
of Central KS. As such, the Red Flags are being hoisted for all of
these areas. With highs from the mid 80s to around 90 records will
be set in most areas. A warm front draped across Nrn OK has produced
a sharp moisture gradient. Dewpoints across Southern KS are only in
the lower-mid 30s whereas south of the boundary mid 50s-lower 60s
cover OK. With the front lifting slowly north an isolated
thunderstorm is still possible over Southeast KS early this morning.

Tonight-Mon:
The afore-mentioned mid-upper trof will send a weak "cold" front
SE toward the CWA. With the mid-upper trof crossing Ontario, the
front will decelerate as it moves deeper into KICT Country. The
front is likely to stall close to the KS/OK on Mon. This`ll cause a
fairly sharp temperature gradient with OK-bordering areas likely to
reach the lower-mid 80s. More record highs are likely, especially at
KCNU. There`ll be enough moisture to warrant a continued 20-30% PoP
assignment Mon Night, but with lift lacking, only light rain would
result.

Tue & Tue Night:
With a modest zonal regime dominating the Great Plains on Tue the
front will remain positioned across OK but enough moisture may
spread across KS to produce scattered light rain. All will be quiet
Tue Night as an amplifying mid-upper ridge will move east across the
Northern & Central Plains Tue Night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Wed-Fri:
Rain & thunderstorm chances will increase considerably as a deep
mid-upper trof moves east across the Rockies Wed Night/early Thu
Morning. The greatest chances for thunderstorms would occur from
Thu thru Fri, several of which may reach severity. The increasing
southerly winds will present a pronounced grassland fire danger
Thu Afternoon.

Next Weekend:
All should be quiet as a broad mid-upper ridge spreads east over
the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Main aviation concern will be some wind shear this evening.

Lee troughing will continue to strengthen today allowing gusty
south winds to remain in place. Surface trough will remain just
west of the forecast area but capping will be too strong for
storms to develop along it. After sunset, should see some wind
shear with south winds just off of the surface gusting to around
40kts for areas along and southeast of the KS Turnpike. Cold
front is expected to make its way across KS late tonight into Mon,
flipping winds around to the north and northeast for central KS
by sunrise Mon. Confidence is high that vfr conditions will remain
in place through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

An Extreme Grassland Fire Danger will exist across all of South
Central & much of Central KS today as increasing S-SW winds to
around 25 mph with 30 to 35 mph gusts couple with a deepening dry
airmass to produce hot & windy weather across KS. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect from 1-7PM CDT. A Very High Grassland fire danger for
the rest of the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Record Highs for March 19th:

Wichita: 91 In 1907
Russell: 83 In 1972*
Salina:  86 In 1907*
Chanute: 83 In 1995*

*Denotes record high will likely be set.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  57  84  51 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      89  53  81  47 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          88  56  82  48 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        87  58  84  51 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   88  59  86  54 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         90  49  74  41 /   0   0   0  20
Great Bend      92  49  77  42 /   0   0   0  20
Salina          89  53  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       89  54  79  45 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     84  63  87  55 /  10   0   0  10
Chanute         83  61  85  54 /  10   0   0  10
Iola            83  61  85  52 /  20   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    84  62  86  55 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049>053-
067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...EPS
CLIMATE...EPS



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