Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 130432
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1132 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Southwest flow will lead to a warming trend across most of the
forecast area into Fri, and for areas east of the Turnpike on Sat.
This southwest flow will lead to strong warm advection across the
forecast area for tonight through the day on Saturday. As this
warm advection increases, a mid level shortwave over the northern
Rockies will help push a frontal boundary into nw Ks with the
front stalling across portions of central and south central KS by
Friday afternoon, as the front becomes parallel to the mid level
flow. Not alot of convergence along the front, with the main
concern being a wind shift for portions of central KS, as the mid
level baroclinic zone lags well north of the boundary.

Low temps will be warmer overnight, given the increased mixing
associated with the warm advection.  Max temps on Friday will be a
little tricky, given the uncertainty of the frontal location
expected to be draped across the area with quite a temp gradient
north of the front to south of the front. Temps across central KS
will only climb into the middle 60s, with a stubborn stratus deck
possibly lasting most of the day, while temps south of the front,
in mostly clear skies, may soar into the middle 80s. 850h temps
around 20-21 deg C, seem to support the middle 80s for areas
generally southeast of the KS Turnpike.

Warm advection and low level moisture transport continues over the
top of the stalled frontal boundary late Fri night. This moisture
advection will probably be enough to trigger widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop north of the boundary, across
most of central KS, where the mid level baroclinic zone will be
located for late Friday night thru Sat morning. As this warm
advection continues, some of the short range models even suggest
the front may waffle back to the north somewhat for the morning
hours on Sat as a warm front, which will make low temps late Fri
kinda tricky as well.

A more potent shortwave looks to move across the northern plains for
Sat afternoon and Sat evening.  As this shortwave moves across the
plains, the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to push
back southeast again across the forecast area, with convergence
and instability increasing ahead of the front for showers and
thunderstorms to develop for Sat afternoon/evening. An increasing
moisture rich environment will be located ahead of the front, with
bulk shear increasing enough for a severe storm threat for Sat
afternoon/evening, especially for areas along and east of the KS
Turnpike.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

The cold front will push southeast of the forecast area late Sat
night or early Sunday with rain chances tapering off across
southeast Kansas by Sunday morning in the wake of the shortwave.
Passage of this cold front will lead to temps again almost 10
degrees below normal with some patchy frost again possible by Mon
morning.

Dry and quiet weather conditions will prevail for Mon-Wed, as rich
gulf moisture is shoved well south of the region by this weekend`s
system. This will lead to seasonal temps across the area.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Moderate to weak southerly winds and low level wind shear are
expected to prevail across the area in the early morning hours
ahead of a cold front that is forecast to begin moving in from the
northwest early Friday. Around 12Z, the front will begin to dip
into central KS, bringing with it some clouds with low cigs and
decreased visibility. Wind shear should dissipate around this
time. The main challenge with the forecast is the exact timing of
the front, which will dictate the timing of increasing cloud
coverage and changing wind direction. The front is expected to
stall and then lift northward as a warm front, which could lower
cigs in northern portions of central Kansas near the end of the
forecast period (~06Z Saturday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  81  64  83 /   0  10  20  60
Hutchinson      61  71  60  79 /   0  10  30  50
Newton          61  77  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
ElDorado        62  84  65  82 /   0  10  20  60
Winfield-KWLD   62  85  66  85 /   0  10  10  50
Russell         56  65  55  74 /   0  10  40  40
Great Bend      57  66  55  76 /   0  10  40  40
Salina          61  67  58  77 /   0  10  50  60
McPherson       60  68  59  78 /   0  10  40  60
Coffeyville     62  87  69  87 /   0   0   0  30
Chanute         61  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  40
Iola            61  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  50
Parsons-KPPF    62  86  69  86 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...Vaughan



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