Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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240
FXUS63 KICT 192117
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Potential for dense fog late tonight and cloud trends through Friday
and then precip chances Saturday night are the main challenges. Most
of the area was shrouded in stratus this afternoon with perhaps a
few breaks near the Oklahoma border. Upper trof/low will continue to
lift northeast across the area this evening followed by shortwave
ridging in its wake later tonight. A few showers were beginning
to develop just east of the low and will remain possible, mainly
along and east of I-135 through early this evening. Otherwise,
the boundary layer airmass will remain moist in the easterly
component flow tonight which should promote stratus build-down
with areas of dense fog. Forecast consensus supported an advisory
across the entire area tonight until mid-morning Friday. The next
upper trof will quickly approach and move across the area Friday
through Friday night. The development and movement of the
associated surface low will determine if southern portions of
Kansas can break out into some sunshine by Friday afternoon and
warmer temperatures. For now will stay a bit more optimistic for
south central and southeast Kansas which is close to MOS
consensus. A more vigorous upper trof/low is still progged to
deepen as it moves into and across the southern Plains Saturday
night. The current track still keeps the better precip chances and
QPF just south of the area. However some light precip/mainly rain
could affect the southern row or two of counties in southern
Kansas so will maintain modest PoPs there. Otherwise, breezy and
only subtle cooling Sunday with temperatures still well above
seasonal climo.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Latest ECMWF has trended closer to the GFS from what it showed
yesterday. This supports the idea of the main upper trof/low
developing and tracking east across the central Plains during
Tuesday with an elongated mean longwave gradually shifting east
from the western across the central CONUS through mid-week. If the
current synoptic evolution holds sway, then central and southeast
Kansas will stay on the relatively mild side of this system with
the attendant surface cyclone passing just north of the area. Plan
to continue carrying only modest chances for measurable precip
Monday night through Tuesday night. Chances for some light wintry
precip/mainly snow will remain possible as colder air wraps in
behind the low Tuesday night across central Kansas. However this
system is still 5 to 6 days away, and a slower/deeper solution is
still possible and would increase chances for impactful Wintry
weather.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday morning)
Issued at 1230 pM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Widespread low ceilings will remain in place through the 24-hr
period within a light southeasterly upslope flow regime. IFR/LIFR
will prevail after 03-05z with visibilities dropping to 1/4 or less
at times tonight before conditions begin to improve by 14-16z on
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    41  56  33  59 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      38  54  32  57 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          40  55  33  57 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        41  57  34  59 /  20  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   42  59  34  60 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         36  49  31  55 /  10  30  10   0
Great Bend      36  49  30  55 /  10  20  10   0
Salina          39  53  33  57 /  20  20  10   0
McPherson       39  53  33  57 /  20  10  10   0
Coffeyville     45  63  38  63 /  20  10   0   0
Chanute         42  60  36  60 /  20  10   0   0
Iola            43  60  36  60 /  20  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    44  61  37  62 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM



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