Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 182023
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES.
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY AS DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUE-WED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. A DRYLINE OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/H10-H85
MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM.
CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THU.

THU-FRI...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG A PAC FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE PAC FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S/LOWS IN THE 40S-50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FOG/HAZE WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS.
THIS WAS MORE THAN LIKELY A RESULT OF THE SMOKE AEROSOLS THAT WERE
LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. SKIES REMAIN SOMEWHAT HAZY AS
OF 18Z.

HAZE LASTING INTO THE LATE MORNING SEEMS TO HAVE CAUSED THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TO FORECAST MORE FOG TONIGHT AT
KSLN...KHUT...AND KICT. THINK THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LEFT OUT OF THE TAF
FORECASTS.

WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND BY 15Z...SHOULD BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 25G35 KNOTS...5-8 KNOTS LESS AT KCNU.

COOK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL CLIMB INTO THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INDEX WILL RETURN TO THE VERY HIGH AND EXTREME CATEGORIES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  80  56  76 /   0  10  30  50
HUTCHINSON      51  81  55  76 /   0  10  30  60
NEWTON          51  79  55  75 /   0  10  20  60
ELDORADO        50  78  56  75 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  78  56  77 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         53  82  56  76 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      52  80  55  75 /   0  10  40  60
SALINA          52  82  58  77 /   0  10  20  60
MCPHERSON       51  80  56  76 /   0  10  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     48  76  55  77 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         48  76  55  76 /   0  10  10  40
IOLA            48  76  55  76 /   0  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    48  76  56  77 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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