Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 112308
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
608 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Cold front that pushed through KS late last night is currently
situated down along the Red River with a slightly cooler and drier
airmass spilling into the region. Water vapor imagery shows an
impulse embedded in the moonsonal flow over the desert sw and
lifting to the northeast.

Made some fairly significant changes to precip chances for
tonight and Sat to basically decrease chances. Best storm chances
tonight now look to remain southwest of the forecast area where
better 850-700mb moisture transport will be situated. Models also
in good agreement that shower/storm chances associated with the
moonsonal impulse, will be very slow to work back to the northeast
for Sat, keeping the bulk of the activity down in OK. So feel
that most of the area will remain dry Sat with the exception of
southwest portions of the forecast area. Will hold onto some storm
chances Sat night but confidence is much higher for locations
across far southern KS and especially OK.

For Sun there is good model agreement that shortwave energy will
be tracking across the northern Mississippi Valley and approaching
the western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, the Plains will remain
in unseasonably strong west/nw flow with a series of weak
perturbations sliding through. Will maintain some small precip
chances for Sun into Sun night but confidence is very low at this
time and would not be surprised if precip chances are removed for
Sun with later forecasts.

The GFS is much more aggressive than the ECMWF, and somewhat the
NAM, in tracking upper energy out of the Rockies and across KS Mon
into Mon evening. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and NAM keep the bulk of
the precip south of the forecast area. Once again, will hold onto
storm chances Mon-Mon night with low confidence in this occurring.

Confidence is much higher with regards to temps as they will
remain well below seasonal averages as they top out in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least mid week
before upper ridging starts to strengthen over the southern Plains
which will push the stronger westerlies north. So at this time
feel the better precip chances will be through Wed night, before
we enter a less progressive pattern. Should also see a return to
more seasonal temps by the end of the work week as we get highs
back to the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

High pressure ridging into the area will continue this evening.
Overnight, several of the latest runs of the HRRR have produced an
MCS moving into the region overnight. Arrival will be at GBD by
10z and areas east of there (HUT/ICT) by 12z. Introduced a VCTS
for GBD but will hold off until more confident for TAFs east of
there.

What happens with this convection will drive much of Saturday. Any
precipitation will be south of I-7o in eastern KS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  80  66  82 /  10  20  30  20
Hutchinson      65  79  64  82 /  10  20  30  20
Newton          64  78  64  81 /  10  10  20  20
ElDorado        65  79  64  81 /  10  10  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   67  80  66  82 /  10  20  30  20
Russell         62  81  64  83 /  10  30  30  20
Great Bend      63  80  64  83 /  20  40  30  20
Salina          63  82  64  84 /  10  10  20  30
McPherson       64  80  63  82 /  10  20  20  30
Coffeyville     64  82  67  80 /  10  10  40  60
Chanute         63  81  65  80 /  10  10  20  40
Iola            63  81  65  80 /  10  10  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    63  82  67  80 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CWH



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