Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT
KSLN THROUGH 15Z OR SO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW/POOLING DEWPOINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER
08-10Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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