Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 212343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SMALL BUT POWERFUL IMPULSE
TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING OVER EXTREME SW TX INTO SOUTHERN NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN NM
TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHWEST EXTENT
OF THE SNOWFALL WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THE BULK OF IT WILL
STAY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS TX ON FRI
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRI NIGHT. STRONG NW
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SETTING UP A VERY STABLE PNA PATTERN. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE WELL ON DIVING A FAST MOVING PIECE OF ENERGY OUT OF
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS ON SUN WOULD SUPPORT
MID AND UPPER 60S AND IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DOWNSLOPE...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A COUPLE SITES APPROACH 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TO START THE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WOULD ONCE AGAIN
YIELD TEMPS IN THE 60S IF NOT LOW 70S FOR TUE. SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO SHOW UP BY MID WEEK WITH THE
GFS TRYING TO BRING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHILE THE ECMWF MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN WE ARE IN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  STORM SYSTEM IN THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER KS.
WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIN SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE TX/OK
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  42  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      27  42  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  41  24  48 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  41  24  47 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  44  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         23  41  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      26  42  22  50 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          25  41  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  41  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  45  24  46 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         28  42  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            27  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    29  43  23  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.