Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 130542
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1142 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Low level moisture transport will begin to ramp up taking aim
on southeast KS late tonight and into the morning hours on Friday.
As the column moistens...freezing drizzle or light freezing rain may
impact mainly southeast KS after 09z with the potential for all rain
across far southeast KS by 17-18z as temperatures rise above
freezing...however a tenth or two of ice will be possible across
much of southeast KS on Friday and an ice storm warning will be
issued.

Friday night-Saturday...periods of light freezing rain will remain
likely with increasing probabilities arriving late in the night
and as we move into Saturday. Precipitation will increase in
coverage on Saturday as rich moisture is transported into the area
ahead of the approaching mid/upper trough. Given the shallow
nature of the modified low level airmass, confidence in steady
and/or slow rising temperatures is beginning to increase as the
higher precipitation rates arrive during the afternoon hours on
Saturday. This may actually push the higher ice accumulations
further north and west of the Wichita metro area with the highest
impacts over portions of central KS Sat night into Sunday.
Locations over much of southern KS may see temperatures rise to
near or just above freezing on Sat afternoon or during the
overnight hours on Sat limiting icing potential over much of
southern KS. Uncertainty in how quickly the near sfc layer
temperatures begin to rise remains but recent trends from the
ECMWF would tend to favor the warmer GFS while the NAM appears to
be a compromise between the two.

A warm front will lift north across the area on Sunday with any
lingering freezing rain changing to rain across much of the area.
The only exception will be portions of central KS where a wintry mix
may linger and the ice storm warning was extended into Sunday night
over those locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

There may be some lingering mixed precipitation across portions
of central KS changing to light snow or a rain/snow mix before
ending. Depending on the exact path of the mid/upper low some
light snow accumulations may be possible across portions of
central KS. Seasonable temperatures will return early in the week
before moderating with highs toward the end of the period reaching
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Main Aviation Hazards: High potential for lowering stratus and
light freezing rain, mainly along and to the southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike Friday into Friday evening.

Low-mid level moisture advection and isentropic lift (280-305K
layer) will increase northward into south-central and southeast
Kansas very late tonight through Friday. A large warm layer aloft
(875-700 mb) with subfreezing surface temperatures is progged.
Therefore, expecting areas of light freezing rain to develop by
daybreak in far southeast Kansas, spreading further northwest
toward the KS Turnpike Friday pm/eve. MVFR/IFR stratus will also
become likely along/southeast of the KS Turnpike, with VFR lower
decks lowering to MVFR ceilings to the northwest of the Turnpike
during the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    22  29  26  32 /  10  30  50  80
Hutchinson      18  28  25  30 /   0  20  40  70
Newton          19  27  24  31 /  10  20  40  70
ElDorado        22  28  26  31 /  10  30  50  80
Winfield-KWLD   25  31  28  32 /  20  50  60  80
Russell         16  27  24  33 /   0   0  10  40
Great Bend      15  27  24  32 /   0  10  20  50
Salina          17  27  24  31 /   0  10  20  50
McPherson       17  27  25  31 /   0  10  30  60
Coffeyville     27  34  31  34 /  50  70  70  70
Chanute         24  31  29  33 /  30  60  60  70
Iola            24  29  28  32 /  20  60  60  80
Parsons-KPPF    26  33  30  33 /  40  70  70  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ096-
098>100.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
KSZ051>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ032-
033-047>050.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
KSZ070>072-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC



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