Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 031128
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KANSAS TODAY WITH
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
ALSO THE AIRMASS WILL ACQUIRE SOME COLD ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE FRESH DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS
NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON
THURSDAY...AIDED BY DECENT DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS HELPING BOOST DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE 40S. MEANWHILE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND ACTUALLY BRING IT
ACROSS KANSAS FOR FRIDAY NOW COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS OF 24HRS
AGO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT
IT MIGHT HAVE THE ABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IF MODEL TRENDS FROM THIS LATEST SOLUTION ARE
MAINTAINED. WE WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HEADING INTO
SUNDAY LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT IT TOO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AT THIS
JUNCTURE. COLDER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN TO THE
HEARTLAND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
USHERS COLDER AIR INTO KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK APPEARS MAINLY CONFINED TO NEAR AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 135 EARLY THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ICT AND SLN SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
13-14 UTC...AND CNU AROUND 16 UTC BASED ON TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KNOTS TODAY...AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT WESTERLY TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  19  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  18  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  19  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  20  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  21  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  12  38  17 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      30  15  42  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          32  17  41  20 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  18  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         37  20  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            37  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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