Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1140 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Water vapor imagery continues to show the main upper circulation
situated over eastern SD/southeast ND with one vort lobe
approaching the eastern Great Lakes with another piece of energy
stretching from the southern Rockies into the southern high
Plains.

Upper pattern will remain mostly unchanged today and tonight as
the large upper low slowly migrates into MN with nw flow aloft
remaining over the central Plains. Wintry precip will stay north
of the forecast area, closer to the upper low. Even though temps
will be a few degrees cooler than Mon, good mixing and downslope
will still allow highs to be above normal.

By Wed, this system will finally be lifting off into the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley and by Thu both the GFS and ECMWF start to bring
additional energy onshore over the Pacific NW. Temps on Wed and
Thu will be slightly cooler but will still be close to seasonal
normals.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Medium range models are in good agreement through Fri in diving
the shortwave energy into the desert SW with additional northern
stream energy tracking over the northern Mississippi Valley.
However, beyond this time frame, the GFS and ECMWF are still
showing different solutions. The ECMWF continues its more
progressive solution while the GFS stays stubborn in closing off
the southern stream energy over Sonora Mexico. Per WPC, the ECMWF
is starting to gain agreement from the UKMET with the Canadian
even starting to trend that way. So not completely ready to
discount the faster solution yet.

This faster solution would spread precip chances north into our
area Sat into Sat night with the slower GFS solution keeping
precip further south. Even if the wetter solution verifies, a
quick look at low level thermal profiles shows it might be tough
to get a long period of wintry precip. So will still not hit
wintry precip potential that hard in products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A cold air advection pattern will continue as the mean northwest
flow aloft deepens across central and eastern Kansas tonight thru
Wednesday morning behind the passage of a mid/upper level trof.
Some increase in altocu and stratocu can be expected with a period
of VFR cigs at or above 5k ft as far south as the I-70 corridor.
Some virga is possible, though any snow flurries that might reach
the ground should remain further north closer to the Nebraska
border tonight. Diurnally gusty northwest winds will continue over
central Kansas thru the forecast valid period.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  32  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      54  31  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          55  29  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        57  31  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   58  31  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         49  26  48  22 /   0  10   0   0
Great Bend      50  27  48  22 /   0  10   0   0
Salina          52  29  48  24 /   0  10   0   0
McPherson       53  28  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     59  32  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         59  31  48  27 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            58  32  47  28 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    59  32  49  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED



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