Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 111125
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
525 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Impacts of snow, wind and potential for some ice are the main
concerns this morning into the early afternoon as the first
significant Winter event of the season affects the area. Satellite
water vapor shows the rather impressive vorticity swirl in the
shortwave upper trof moving over central Oklahoma at 08z. Timing is
everything this morning as the upper trof lifts northeast over the
area and strong cold advection to support the changeover to snow
slides southeast. Recent lightning across central Kansas supports
the weak elevated instability the models have been advertising.
Point forecast soundings and cross sections continue to show some
overlap of elevated frontogenesis and instability as it becomes
cold enough for snow across central Kansas centered either side of
12z as the vort max moves northeast across the area. This looks
to support an axis of heavier snow accum potential within the
lighter snow accum field through the morning. Latest short term
consensus would put this either side of a HUT-MPR-Abilene line
where locally 4 plus inch amounts will be possible.

The next concern is with some freezing rain/drizzle and ice accum
potential along and east of the KS turnpike corridor as the surface
cold front and colder sub-freezing surface air looks to outrun
the colder air aloft and cloud ice for a time. While light, there
could be enough ice to make travel slick and hazardous.

The scenario of the snow and ice combined with the strong north
winds will justify expanding the Winter Weather Advisory further
east into parts of southeast Kansas. Also plan to upgrade to a
Winter Storm Warning for a few counties in central Kansas where
confidence is higher now in attaining greater snow totals and a
greater weather impact.

Beyond today, it will just be flat out frigid as we go into the
start of the weekend, especially where there is significant snow
cover. A reinforcing shot of colder, Arctic air still looks to
plunge south Friday night into Saturday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The mean eastern NOAM upper longwave will send another shot of
reinforced Arctic air south across the central CONUS Sunday night
into Monday and will keep the region in the freezer through
Tuesday. Modest chances for light snow with the associated upper
trof/low dropping down across the Upper Midwest, though the main
impact will continue to be the cold and low wind chills.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

A strong weather system will be moving through the region this
morning and will bring a mix of rain, snow and some mixed
precipitation to most terminals this morning. RSL, GBD, SLN have
switched to all snow and will have IFR conditions for the first
part of the morning. These terminals will also be the first to
come out of IFR conditions and go VFR by late morning. ICT and HUT
will stay in the IFR conditions a little longer and will have a
mixed bag of rain and snow. Some brief periods of freezing rain
and sleet is also possible here. HUT and ICT are expected to
transition to VFR conditions by late morning and the early
afternoon. CNU will the stay in the IFR conditions the longest but
will also have the least wintry precip. VFR conditions are
expected in CNU by the late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  10  29  12 /  80   0   0  10
Hutchinson      27   7  26   8 /  90   0  10  10
Newton          27   7  26   9 /  90   0  10  10
ElDorado        31   9  29  11 /  80   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   34  11  31  13 /  60   0   0   0
Russell         25   6  25   6 /  80   0  10  10
Great Bend      27   6  27   7 /  90   0  10  10
Salina          26   6  22   7 / 100   0  20  10
McPherson       26   4  24   7 / 100   0  10  10
Coffeyville     49  12  31  15 /  50  10   0   0
Chanute         42  10  29  12 /  80  10   0  10
Iola            40   9  28  12 /  80  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    48  11  30  13 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-053-067>069-082-083-091.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ049-051-052.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for KSZ070>072-092>096-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ELM



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