Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 011746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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