Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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799
FXUS63 KICT 260233
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
933 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The severe threat has waned across the forecast area, as all the
surface-based thunderstorms remained closely tied to the surface
front across Oklahoma. However, still expecting thunderstorm
chances to gradually increase from the south overnight, as the
frontal zone begins to shift north across the region in response
to the approaching upper trough across the southern Rockies.
Beginning to see signs of this as regional 850mb winds per radar
VWPs are backing to a more south/southeasterly direction. Latest
short-term hi-res guidance (i.e. HRRR, RAP) also supports a
gradual increase in convection overnight. Thinking strongest
activity will be capable of dime size hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall rates. While enthusiasm for the flash flood
watch currently in effect has waned, cannot rule out isolated
occurrences of flooding/flash flooding overnight, so will keep it
going through 7am Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A stalled frontal boundary will create an active weather pattern
for the next several days. PW values are rather high in the 1-1.5
inch range providing some high octane moisture for convection to
work with. Moisture transport and deep layer shear are present but
not great. This will make for the efficient rain makers overnight
tonight. Best chances are from the Turnpike to the East. An
isolated severe thunderstorm is also possible overnight with wind
being the primary threat. Localized flooding is possible in some
areas of South Central and Central Kansas. Based on the moisture
and the above mentioned atmospheric parameters and collaboration
with surrounding offices, issuing a Flood Watch for the overnight
time period for much of Central and South Central Kansas.

The next question is the amount of precipitation for Friday
afternoon through Saturday. The frontal boundary remains over the
CWA. Models still indicate high octane moisture present with PW
staying near 1.5 inches. Additionally, expect some waves moving
along the front Friday night which will allow for some more
convection to get going. Again, expect many of the thunderstorms
to be efficient rain produces with locally heavy rain likely.
Can`t rule out an isolated severe storm as well. Temperatures look
to remain just below normal due the increased cloud cover.
Overnight lows will likely be near or just above normal as there
just does not seem to be any good push of cooler drier air moving
into the area.

Sunday looks to be a little drier but moisture will remain high
which will keeping the clouds in the area. PW looks to drop to
around an inch keeping plenty of fuel for thunderstorms, just not
as much. This will keep the temperatures down some. Showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible with some locally heavy rain
but more scattered late afternoon Sunday and Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The extended forecast still looks active with scattered showers
and thunderstorms likely. Right now the chances for heavy rain
looks to be Monday and Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday looks a
little warmer and more isolated showers and thunderstorms. This
will allow temperatures to get a little warmer and possibility
just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across southern Kansas tonight. However since much of the
activity will occur after 06z, will limit mention to VCTS for now
and amend to include TEMPO or prevailing as needed before next
routine issuance or wait until the 06z forecast. Otherwise, some
lower MVFR CIGS are expected to develop late tonight across much
of the area. Light north to northeast winds will gradually veer
around to southeast during the forecast valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  84  69  88 /  60  50  40  30
Hutchinson      65  81  68  87 /  60  50  40  30
Newton          65  81  67  86 /  60  50  40  30
ElDorado        66  83  68  87 /  60  50  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   68  87  69  89 /  60  40  40  30
Russell         60  77  64  85 /  30  40  40  30
Great Bend      60  79  65  86 /  40  40  40  30
Salina          63  80  68  86 /  50  50  40  40
McPherson       64  80  67  86 /  60  50  40  40
Coffeyville     70  88  69  90 /  50  40  30  40
Chanute         69  86  69  87 /  60  40  40  40
Iola            69  85  69  87 /  60  40  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    69  86  69  88 /  50  40  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ051>053-067>072-
082-083-091>095.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KED



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