Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 162006
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern for most
of the work week. This will lead to the hot temps slowly returning
to most of the area by the middle of the week.  A weak vort
circulation underneath the upper ridge continues to meander across
NW KS at this time, with scattered showers associated with it, due
to the increased lift and upslope easterly flow.

The vort max over NW KS is expected to slowly lift NE into Neb, this
evening and tonight, with most of the showers/storms associated with
it staying well west of the forecast area.  An increasing warm
elevated mixed layer will also nullify any isolated storm chances,
for the forecast area, for the late afternoon into the evening
hours, with most of the diurnal Cu dissipating after sunset.

The impulse underneath the ridge is expected to stay well north of
the forecast area, across Neb for the beginning of the week, keeping
any shower/storm chances north of the area as well.  Plan on keeping
a small pop along and north of I-70, as mid level warm advection
with the warming elevated mixed layer may lead to some elevated
showers for Mon evening.

The big story for the week will be the return of the hot temps as
the upper ridge builds firmly across the region. The increased S-SW
flow will lead to max temps climbing into the upper 90s for most
locations and to 100-103 across central KS.  Expecting low level
mixing to increase for most of south central KS, which will lead to
hot and a little less humid.  But will have to keep an eye on ern
sections, as the combination of the hot temps and surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 may lead to heat index values around
105 to 108.  Certainly think heat type headlines may be needed for
some areas for Tue-Thu, with Wed-Thu expected to be the hottest
days.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Medium range models differ on how they want to the handle the ridge
for the end of the week.  Latest ECMWF, and to a lessor degree the
GEFS ensemble means, suggest the ridge will break down some for the
end of the week into the weekend.  This will allow a frontal
boundary to drop south into at least nrn KS and potentially across
the rest of KS for the weekend, with storm chances returning. GFS
keeps the ridge over the area, which would suggest a drier weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR is expected to prevail during the forecast valid period. The
brunt of convection potential with subtle wave over western KS, is
expected to remain just west-northwest of the central Kansas
terminals (RSL,GBD,SLN) through at least 12Z Monday.
Light/variable winds are progged to become light southeasterly
this afternoon into tonight, and more southerly Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  94  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      72  95  73  97 /  10   0  10   0
Newton          71  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        71  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  94  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         72  96  73 100 /  10  10  20  10
Great Bend      72  96  73  99 /  10  10  10   0
Salina          71  97  75  99 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       71  95  73  97 /  10   0  10   0
Coffeyville     71  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         71  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            71  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...JMC



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