Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 110939
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SW ACROSS NW MO
INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME.  QUESTION TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE IT. LATEST HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT OVER ERN KS. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING....EXPECT A TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE....EVEN THOUGH THE
NE SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

EXPECT TEMPS ON FRI TO BE SIMILAR FRI...MUCH LIKE TODAY...AS AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS BRIEFLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.  THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW TO NE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR FRI.  MODELS
ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR
FRI AFTERNOON.  PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WERE THAT THIS COLD AIR WOULD NOT
MAKE INTO KS UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS
THAT A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A LEAD COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON.  SO NOT EXPECTING MAX TEMPS AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT CERTAINLY SEASONAL FOR MID FEB.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE COLDER AIR FROM THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OOZE INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR LATE SAT
NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. NOT ALOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...BUT MID LEVEL SATURATION DOES INCREASE ENOUGH
FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE
FOR EARLY SUN MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER SATURATION WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH IN THE LOW LAYERS FOR THIS PRECIP CHANCE TO
MATERIALIZE...SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.  THE SHALLOW
SUB FREEZING AIR...MAY MAKE THIS PRECIP CHANCE PROBLEMATIC...AS A
MID LEVEL WARM NOSE INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD LOW LEVELS...
TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO
WORRIED ABOUT LIGHT SNOW...AS SATURATION WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR
ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS TEMPS WARM
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF SUN...THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT WINTER PRECIP EVENT.

A PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS FOR LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST-SW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LATE
TONIGHT FM THE NW IN WAKE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOW LOW CLOUDS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF KS...SIMILAR
TO 00Z NAM AND LATEST RAP. THIS IS CLOSE TO 00Z TIMING AT
KRSL/KSLN AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS AT OTHER SITES. DOES APPEAR THAT
KHUT/KICT MAY BE GRAZED BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO BKN.
SOUTHERN END OF CLOUD BANK HAS BEEN VFR BUT...STILL THINK MVFR IS
MOST PROBABLE GIVEN UP SLOPE COMPONENT AND CLIMATOLOGY. SLOWED
BURN OFF SLIGHTLY GIVEN BOTH WEAK AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT KRSL/KSLN.
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THRU KRSL/KSLN/KGBD AND KHUT NEAR END OF
FCST. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TODAY THRU FRI AS A
CANADIAN AIRMASS OOZES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  31  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  30  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  30  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  31  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  29  42  19 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  30  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  30  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  30  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  28  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  28  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  27  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  28  47  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.