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000
FXUS63 KICT 130817
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unseasonably warm through about Wednesday. Near record high
  temperatures possible Sunday. Below average temperatures possible
  late week through next weekend.

* Strong winds fueling very high to extreme grassfire danger across
  mainly central and south-central Kansas today, then again Monday
  and Tuesday. Red Flag Warning today portions of central and north-
  central Kansas.

* Thunderstorm chances and associated severe thunderstorm potential
  Monday evening-night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

TEMPERATURES...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports high
chances for above average temperatures today through Wednesday. The
warmest days look to be this weekend through Monday, when forecast
high temperatures well into the 80s to near 90 degrees are probable.
Russell may flirt with a record high today (92 in 2006), with
additional record highs being threatened Sunday (Wichita 93 in 1936,
Salina 93 in 2002, Russell 91 in 2002). By Thursday of next week,
model consensus is in fairly good agreement supporting a significant
cool down through next weekend, with some solutions supporting
daytime highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s. Stay tuned
for later forecasts, as details are refined the next several days.

WIND...A fleet-footed shortwave will induce deepening low pressure
and associates stout/gusty south to southwest winds today, with
gusts likely approaching 35 mph from mid-late morning into the early
evening. Even stronger south-southwest-west winds will continue
Monday and Tuesday, as unseasonably strong/deep low pressure moves
through the Central Plains, as progged by ensemble climatologies.
Wind gusts exceeding 40-50 mph both days appears likely. Wind
advisories will likely eventually be needed.

PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...Lift and mid-level
moistening associated with a fast-moving shortwave may support a
few isolated high-based showers/thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening across central Kansas. Coverage should be
fairly sparse, rain amounts very light, and severe weather is
not expected.

As has been advertised the past several days, there remains
potential for increasing thunderstorm chances Monday evening-night
across the region, as a deep/strong western CONUS upper trough and
associated upper speed max approaches from the west, overspreading a
moist/unstable airmass in place across the Central and Southern
Plains. The overall synoptic setup in conjunction with an
anomalously high CAPE/shear combination supports a threat for severe
thunderstorms across the region, some of which could produce higher-
end severe weather. However, latest model trends have continued a
somewhat slower and deeper solution, which is increasing confidence
that storm initiation and associated higher-end severe weather
potential (i.e. better chances for discrete supercells) could be
further west over the High Plains. If this scenario does indeed
verify, by the time strong large-scale forcing and associated
thunderstorms reach central and eastern Kansas sometime Monday
night, storm mode could be rather messy, which would tend to reduce
the higher-end severe threat over central and eastern Kansas. All-in-
all, uncertainty remains with the evolution of late Monday`s
severe potential. Stay tuned, as forecast details continue to be
refined through the weekend.

Additional rain chances are possible Wednesday night through
Thursday, within a west-northwest flow aloft regime, but strong or
severe storms are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Concerns:
1) Low level wind shear early today & in E KS tonight

2) Gusty winds starting mid morning

An increase in the low level jet will lead to low level wind
shear early today and earlier than previously anticipated; this
should subside by around 15Z which is just in time for stronger
sustained winds. Southerly winds are expected to have to speeds
of 20 to 25kts with gusts of 30 to 35 kts through the afternoon
thanks to mixing. These should subside around sunset. Low level
wind shear may move in again especially in southern and eastern
Kansas around 3Z lasting for about six hours. There may be
changes in the coverage and timing of the latter low level wind
shear with the next issuance. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Increasing south-southwest winds in conjunction with very warm
temperatures and humidity in the teens percent prompted a Red Flag
Warning this afternoon into early evening for Barton, Rice,
Ellsworth, Russell, and Lincoln counties. For Monday and Tuesday,
very high to extreme grassland fire danger is once again probable
across central and south-central Kansas, due to continued well above
average temperatures, strong/gusty south to southwest winds, and low
humidity. Stay tuned, as forecast details are refined this
weekend.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...ADK