Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222327
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Trough that brought the rain yesterday has moved southeast to
southern CONUS. Flooding is still occurring in southeast Kansas.
Please see the Hydrology section for more information. A ridge is
situated over the Plains which will remain for the rest of the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

After the trough fully exited the Plains, there is still residual
moisture and cloud cover which has left the southeast quadrant of
Kansas with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Cloud cover has
begun to break through the day and will continue to do this evening
as drier air moves in with the above mentioned ridge. Its axis over
the area and no cloud cover with the cooler air temperatures could
result in patchy frost across central Kansas as mentioned in the
previous few decisions. The cap to the weekend will be another 10
degrees higher than today on its upward swing through Monday.

A following system tracks to the Rockies on Sunday and to the Plains
on Monday with the first part of the wave which stays further north.
Wind speeds will increase with this system on Monday. The second
part of this wave lags slightly to move through on Tuesday.
Depending on the selected model, there are hints of 1-1.5k J/kg
of surface CAPE with ~40-50 kts of bulk shear in the far
southeast corner of the state on Tuesday evening to bring a return
of thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The latter part of the forecast still has a trough moving through
the Plains at the end of the week which will return greater chances
of thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of considerable model
differences in timing, location and even strength. Now the greater
instability and moisture transport stays in Oklahoma and Texas.
Overall the forecast was left fairly intact from the previous
issuance with only adjustments in the precipitation fields based on
the latest model guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A mid-upper level shear axis will shift southeast out of southern
Kansas this evening. The mid-level cloud deck will translate
southward out of southeast Kansas by mid-late evening, leaving
clear skies across Kansas. A surface ridge axis over the High
Plains will move slowly southeastward, and by late Sunday should
extend from Missouri to eastern Oklahoma. Light northerly winds
will become light/variable as the ridge moves over, then southerly
on the backside of the ridge Sunday. Afternoon gusts of 20-26
knots are expected west of I-135.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Following the heavy rains from the past 48 hours that brought ~2
inches to southeast Kansas into Oklahoma, there is still flooding
over some low water crossings in Montgomery County and along the
Neosho River in Labette County. A break in precipitation should
bring an end to flooding conditions by around noon on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    38  67  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      37  68  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          37  66  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        38  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   38  68  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         36  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      35  69  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          38  69  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       37  67  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     39  68  43  73 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         39  67  44  72 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            38  67  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    39  68  44  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...JMC
HYDROLOGY...VJP


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