Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271729
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Today-tonight:

Storms in central KS early this morning are being aided by
850MB jet overrunning surface/outflow boundary and upper wave
evident in water vapor loop. With passage of wave and decrease
in low level jet, precipitation should wane rather quickly around
daybreak. Once again, ARW model seems to be handling current
trends and was generally followed this period. It along with some
other models hint at a few/brief showers/thunderstorms developing
in southern sections of Flint Hills after sunrise, which in
current airmass is possible. This may also be aided by trailing
edge of upper wave. Other storms could develop in the afternoon
across the Flint Hills and linger until sunset. Given lack of
significant boundary/upper support only orographics/climatology
would further support this solution. ARW also develops storms in
Western KS this afternoon which then migrate into western
sections of forecast area tonight - most likely after sunset.

Sunday-Monday:
Upper trough weakens and remains hung up in the Southwest US,
leaving modest zonal flow and rising heights for the Central
Plains. This should result in slowly warming temperatures and the
pesky isolated-scattered afternoon-evening and also around
daybreak convection. Initialization grids were quite generous
with QPF and resultantly pops for Monday. This seems unlikely given
no real shortwave or boundary to overrun and only broad diffluent
upper flow to support it. Trended chances down, but likely not
enough. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

This period is really a continue of the Sunday-Monday timeframe
with heights continuing to rise and temperatures increasing. Pops
are likely overdone and a function of convective bullseyes in
optimistic QPF forecasts. Hard pressed to rule precipitation out
completely on any given period, but would hedge to the climatology
with a couple of afternoon-sunset storms and again towards
daybreak. Temperatures will remain a challenge with temperatures
aloft/upper ridge supporting near/above normal maxes, but
clouds/convective debris could result in significant errors on
some days/locations. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Aviation concern will be storm chances this afternoon and tonight.

A few afternoon storms will be possible late this afternoon into
the early evening over southeast KS where the higher instability
will be situated. Lack of surface focus will make it difficult to
pin down location, so for now will leave mention of convection out
of KCNU taf due to lack of confidence. Have higher confidence in
storms over SW KS this evening where a weak upper wave is
situated. This activity will try and work east overnight but
confidence remains low on how far east it will make it. So will
also leave mention of storms out of other TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  70  88  70 /  10  20  20  20
Hutchinson      87  69  87  69 /  10  20  20  20
Newton          86  69  86  69 /  20  20  20  20
ElDorado        86  69  86  70 /  20  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   88  70  88  70 /  10  20  20  20
Russell         87  67  87  67 /  10  20  20  30
Great Bend      87  67  87  67 /  10  20  20  30
Salina          87  69  88  70 /  10  20  20  30
McPherson       86  68  86  69 /  10  20  20  20
Coffeyville     90  70  91  69 /  10  20  20  10
Chanute         88  69  88  69 /  20  20  20  20
Iola            87  69  87  70 /  20  20  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    89  70  89  69 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL


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