Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 061740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH KEEPING UP WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS
TODAY OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN BY A
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THINKING THAT PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE IT DOWN TO WICHITA UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 4 PM WITH SE KS
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH KSLN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND KICT AFTER 21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVER CENTRAL KS(KRSL-
KSLN) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...IT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  65  74  62 /  60  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      93  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          94  63  73  61 /  70  90  40  40
ELDORADO        95  65  73  62 /  50  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  65  74  63 /  40  90  60  60
RUSSELL         85  61  77  57 /  70  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          93  64  77  60 /  80  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  30  90  80  90
CHANUTE         90  67  73  65 /  30  90  80  80
IOLA            90  67  72  64 /  40  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    90  68  74  65 /  30  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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