Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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939
FXUS63 KICT 280803
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Rest Of The Memorial Day Weekend:
During the night, a nearly stacked cyclone has been centered over
Manitoba with its attendant mid-upper shortwave curving from MN &
IA, across Nebraska, to the Southeast CO/Northeast NM border. The
cold front associated with both characters is surging deeper into
the Southern Plains while a semi-inverted surface ridge extending
from the Northern Rockies to the OK/TX Panhandles is continuing to
punch SE. The above-mentioned stacked cyclone will move slowly SE,
crossing the Northern Great Lakes on Mon before lifting E/NE over
Southern Ontario. This would allow a high-amplitude mid-upper
ridge situated along the West Coast to move VERY SLOWLY east over
the Western U.S. where it`ll likely stall. This would keep the
Great Plains under a fast NW regime but with the semi-inverted
surface ridge shifting slowly east into the Great Plains, nice
weather would prevail the remainder of the holiday period.

Mon Night-Tue Night:
A couple of weak mid-level short waves will sprint SE from the
Western Dakotas that`ll kick a cold front S/SE into KS on Mon. The
weak shortwaves will combine with the cold front to produce
scattered showers & thunderstorms across KS all 3 periods. With
greatest lift targeting the Northern Plains & Upper Mississippi
Valley Tue & Tue Night, the thunderstorms occurring across KS
should behave.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Scattered/widely scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast
for the rest of the week. Chances for thunderstorms should
increase from Thu onward when a couple of stronger mid-level
shortwaves are scheduled to move east across the Central &
Southern Plains. These thunderstorms should be stronger, but there
are differences between the GFS & ECMWF which dictates keeping
probabilities conservative at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. A decaying cluster of
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will affect locations
mainly along/west of Salina to Wichita for 2-4 hours after
midnight. Covered this threat with VCSH. Brunt of showers/storms
will remain south of the KS/OK border overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  56  83  58 /   0   0  10  30
Hutchinson      80  55  80  55 /   0   0  10  30
Newton          80  56  80  56 /   0   0  10  30
ElDorado        80  56  81  57 /   0   0  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   81  56  84  58 /   0   0  10  20
Russell         80  53  78  53 /   0   0  10  20
Great Bend      80  53  79  54 /   0   0  10  30
Salina          81  55  79  55 /   0   0  10  20
McPherson       80  55  80  55 /   0   0  10  20
Coffeyville     81  55  84  57 /   0   0  10  20
Chanute         81  55  83  56 /   0   0  10  20
Iola            80  55  82  56 /   0   0  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    81  55  84  57 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ADK



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