Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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449
FXUS63 KICT 290804
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Storms should continue generally along and west of I-135 early
this morning in an area of decent mid level theta-e advection.
Should see an overall decrease in activity near or shortly after
sunrise, as the bulk of it pushes into OK. Not overly excited
about daytime convection with the better focus staying south of
the forecast area which is also where the better instability will
be situated. Should see another MCS tonight with the good 850-700mb
moisture transport over the southwest portions of the forecast
area and down into western OK. Shear isn`t nearly as good as it
was Thu evening but can`t rule out some 50-55 mph winds and small
hail with any of the stronger storms tonight.

A lot of what occurs on Sat will be dependent on boundaries
generated from tonight`s convection. Both GFS and NAM are hinting
at an instability axis thorough western KS and into western
portions of the forecast area. While there isn`t a more synoptic
boundary to focus on, feel storms should develop over the high
Plains Sat afternoon and try and work east into the evening hours.
Another night of mid level theta-e advection will setup for Sat
night with a slight eastward shift to any mcs activity.

Below normal temps can be expected for both today and Sat and with
saturated ground today, feel confident that most sites will not
make it out of the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Upper ridging will start to build east into the southern Plains
Sun into the start of the work week. This will push the better
storm chances east of the forecast area and return the area back
to above normal temps. With 850mb temps getting back into the
25-30 degree range, should see areas along and west of I-135 get
back to near the century mark by Mon with this pattern remaining
through most of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Elevated storms have redeveloped across central KS in the wake of
the initial MCS as a shortwave trough approaches in northwest
mid/upper flow. These storms may impact all TAF sites as we move
through the night with transient MVFR cigs/visibilities under the
heavier showers. Light and variable winds are anticipated through
much of the 24-hr period. Other storms may develop within a weakly
capped airmass as we move through the afternoon hours on Friday
but confidence remains too low to mention in TAFs at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  85  69  88 /  30  30  30  30
Hutchinson      66  84  68  88 /  30  20  30  30
Newton          67  84  67  87 /  30  20  30  30
ElDorado        68  84  68  86 /  30  20  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   70  86  70  88 /  30  30  30  30
Russell         64  84  66  88 /  30  20  30  20
Great Bend      65  84  66  88 /  30  20  30  30
Salina          67  86  67  87 /  30  20  30  20
McPherson       65  84  67  87 /  30  20  30  20
Coffeyville     70  87  70  86 /  50  30  30  30
Chanute         69  85  68  85 /  50  30  30  30
Iola            68  85  68  85 /  50  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    69  86  69  86 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM



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