Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Early this morning, water vapor imagery depicted a large upper low
centered over the Great Basin, with a tropical connection from the
Eastern North Pacific and Mexico northward into the central High
Plains and Northern Plains. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary
extending from eastern Nebraska to northwest Kansas and southeast
Colorado. Much cooler air in the 40s/50s resides behind the front,
with warmer than normal temperatures in the 60s/70s out ahead of the
front. Batches of showers/thunderstorms were oriented south to north
across the central High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Main forecast challenges: rainfall probabilities/amounts through
Tuesday night, and temperatures behind the front.

The upper low will slowly move eastward to the Central Rockies by
late this afternoon, with showers/thunderstorms most concentrated
near the frontal convergence zone, aided by upper level diffluent
flow and anomalously high precipitable water. Most of the convection
will be over western Kansas into Nebraska, but could advance into
central Kansas by late this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will
vary from the upper 50s to lower 70s behind the front in northwest
Kansas, to the 80s to around 90 degrees in the warm sector
which will include our forecast area.

A large portion of the upper low will begin lifting northeastward
out over the northern Plains late tonight through Tuesday. This will
allow the frontal boundary to sink slowly southward as a cold front,
interacting with a very moist airmass with limited instability.
Periods of showers/thunderstorms will spread east into central/south-
central Kansas through Monday night, but may not reach far southeast
Kansas until Tuesday into Tuesday night. The more substantial
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches are possible across
central/south-central Kansas where the strongest combination of
upper level divergence and frontal convergence occur. Much lesser
amounts are expected in far southeast Kansas. Flash flood guidance
values are rather high given the dry past 30 days. So although
locally heavy rainfall is possible in central/south-central Kansas,
the flood threat appears slight at this time.

Much cooler air will spread into central Kansas Monday into Monday
night, and much of the forecast area by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The medium range models indicate an expansive surface high building
southward into the Central Plains for mid-late week, with fall-
like temperatures, including highs in the low-mid 70s and lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s. Some of the deterministic models
eject the remnant upper trough energy in the Southwest toward the
Central Plains, although the ECMWF weakens this feature with time.
Expecting mainly dry weather to prevail at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Clouds just above MVFR level will begin to increase from west to
east along with rain showers spreading into central Kansas for
this afternoon. The rain showers will increase and move further
eastward for late tonight into Monday across central/south central
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  68  82  62 /  10  30  60  70
Hutchinson      88  67  79  58 /  20  40  70  70
Newton          90  67  81  59 /  10  30  60  70
ElDorado        90  68  83  62 /  10  10  50  70
Winfield-KWLD   90  68  84  63 /  10  10  50  60
Russell         83  62  70  53 /  40  80  80  60
Great Bend      84  62  71  53 /  40  70  80  50
Salina          90  67  78  58 /  20  50  80  70
McPherson       88  66  78  57 /  20  40  70  70
Coffeyville     90  68  87  66 /  10   0  20  30
Chanute         89  67  85  65 /  10  10  20  30
Iola            88  67  85  65 /  10  10  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    90  68  86  66 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CDJ



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