Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 150443
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Main issue will be precipitation chances tonight and then again
towards the end of next week.

A upper ridge lies just to our west as a surface low spins around
Lincoln Kansas. A pretty weak boundary stretches across the mid
sections of the forecast area and has been the focus for some
thunder development due to some heating. Very little convergence
is noted. I anticipate the shower and thunder activity to migrate
south during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The weak
boundary looks to set up along the Kansas and Oklahoma border by
morning. This placement will keep chances for rain in the forecast
for the south central and southeastern sections. The boundary
hangs around just a bit Saturday morning so I will keep chances
for precipitation in the forecast as well.

Saturday night and Sunday...The weak boundary finally moves out
of the area and surface and high pressure aloft begin to fill in.
This setup will begin to slowly swing the winds around to the east
southeast albeit weak. This trend will continue through the day
on Sunday. Though I am a bit skeptical that the model winds might
be a bit to low during this time frame towards the latter part of
Sunday.

More seasonable weather is set to return Monday with increasing
highs each day. GFS packs the surface gradient down pretty good
Monday afternoon and we should see an increase in wind speeds
across the western periphery Monday and the whole area Tuesday.
Therefore, decent warm air advection will ensue and bring back the
warmer temps.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

The upper ridge remains entrenched through the remainder of the
extended, however, the GFS hints at a boundary draping along
interstate 70 on Friday. This frontal position along with some
weak convergence will bring a chance for storms into the forecast
again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Cannot rule out a few isolated showers/thunderstorms overnight.
Predictability is low so did not include in TAFs. Additionally,
could see lower ceilings and/or visibilities later tonight into
Saturday morning areawide, due to moist low-levels, diurnal
cooling and weak upslope flow. Covered this threat with 4-5 SM
BR for now. For tomorrow, could see afternoon and evening hit-or-
miss showers/storms areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  90  71  92 /  20  10  10  10
Hutchinson      71  91  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
Newton          71  90  69  91 /  20  10  10  10
ElDorado        70  89  68  90 /  20  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  91  70  92 /  30  20  10  10
Russell         70  90  67  93 /  20  10  10  10
Great Bend      70  91  68  92 /  20  20  20  10
Salina          71  92  69  95 /  20   0  10  10
McPherson       71  91  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
Coffeyville     71  90  69  92 /  30  30   0   0
Chanute         71  89  68  91 /  20  20   0   0
Iola            71  89  67  91 /  20  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  90  69  92 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...ADK



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