Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180750
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
250 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED OVERNIGHT...ORIENTED IN A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST MANNER FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG A
900-800MB FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THETA-E
GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THINKING THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-135 DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
QUARTER TO POTENTIALLY GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN STORMS TRAINING IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MANOR. HOWEVER...IF A MASSIVE COLD POOL CAN
MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THE CONSOLIDATING STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS 60 MPH WINDS.
NEVERTHELESS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY EAST
OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. STOUT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PHASING WITH A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS SURROUNDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD DRASTICALLY LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
CONTINUE ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD FAVOR MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...THOUGHT IT
PRUDENT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
GENERALLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH...AS
A LUMBERING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AS ECMWF AND GFS DIG A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AM...TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AIDED BY WEAK FORCING AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. VCTS IS BEING CARRIED FOR MOST TERMINALS.

LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      88  69  89  69 /  20  10  10  30
NEWTON          85  68  87  69 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        86  68  88  70 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  69  87  70 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         84  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      88  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  40
SALINA          81  68  90  70 /  30  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       84  68  88  68 /  30  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     88  68  86  69 /  50  10  10   0
CHANUTE         81  67  86  68 /  50  10  10   0
IOLA            80  66  85  68 /  50  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  68  86  68 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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