Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 190845
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER WESTERN
MANITOBA TO EASTERN NM IS TEAMING WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO PRODUCE WEAK SE-S FLOW ACROSS KANSAS. THE SE FLOW
IS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN KS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING:
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL PRIMARILY ALONG & EAST OF I-135
WHERE THE SE FLOW WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS SUCH HAVE
EXTEND PATCHY FOG FURTHER WEST TO JUST ACROSS I-135 WITH AREAS OF FOG
ASSIGNED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS THE WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHES
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER THE LOWER-DECK FLOW WOULD BECOME S/SW OVER
ALL AREAS WHICH WOULD SCOUR THE FOG FROM ALL AFFECTED AREAS BY 9AM.

THIS AFTERNOON:
DESPITE THE RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES THAT WON`T BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
NEAR 90 WEST OF I-135 TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

TONIGHT:
CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL AREAS AS REMNANTS OF "ODILE" BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE & TAKE A TRACK TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS
BORDER EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
NEIGHBORHOOD.

SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AFORE-MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL KANSAS SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH
THE GREATER CHANCES OCCURRING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO THE MISSOURI/
IOWA BORDER WHERE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER WAVE. WITH THE
MID-UPPER WAVE MUCH LESSER DEFINED OVER KANSAS THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
IN AN EAST-WEST MANNER THROUGH KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH
SCATTERED-WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FESTER OVER KICT COUNTRY THRU SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-UPPER WAVE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT SURGES SE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRENGTHENING NW FLOW ALOFT WOULD KICK THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHICH WOULD SHIFT ANY CHANCES OF RAINFALL
SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AFTER A BRIEF INTERMISSION THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT MID-UPPER WAVE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
WAVE SHOULD GET FORCED NE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG MID-UPPER HIGH
COVERING THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WEAKENING MID-UPPER SUPPORT WOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CHANCES
SHIFTING SLOW EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT IN A
COOLER PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL.

UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND LOWERING DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135. PATCHY FOG AND IFR
STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF I-135 LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AM...WITH A LESSER CHANCE WEST OF I-135. THEREFORE INCLUDED
MENTION AT SLN...ICT AND CNU TERMINALS AND HIT THE CNU SITE HARDER
WITH LIGHTER WIND AND RECENT RAINFALL. ANY LINGERING STRATUS
SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASED MIXING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  88  65 /   0  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      89  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          87  69  87  64 /   0  10  30  30
ELDORADO        87  69  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  69  87  66 /   0  10  20  20
RUSSELL         89  69  86  61 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      89  68  87  62 /   0  10  20  30
SALINA          89  69  88  63 /   0  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       88  69  88  63 /   0  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     84  67  87  66 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         82  66  86  65 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            81  66  85  64 /  10   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    84  66  87  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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