Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 250410
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL HELP
INITIATE STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT A SLOWER FROPA
COULD RESULT IN BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE BULK OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST IN
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
NO ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND SEASONABLE HIGHS AROUND 60 ANTICIPATED ON FRI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED PATTEN IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND A TROUGH ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS FCST IS A SFC CYCLONE THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES FROM ~09Z-12Z. THE CYCLONE WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES SE OVEER THE WRN RED RIVER WED
AFTN. WITH TIME WINDS THAT ARE GENERALLY LGT ELY WILL BACK TOWARD
THE NE & INCREASE CONSIDERABLY WED AFTN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM
17-22KT/20-25MPH WITH GUSTS ~30KTS/35MPH LKLY IN MOST AREAS. CNTRL
KS TERMINALS WOULD EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER NE WINDS WHERE THE NE
GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. SHRA & TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP OVER ALL OF SE KS
AND MUCH OF SC KS (ESPECIALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KEWK KICT) EARLY
IN THE AFTN. THE MOST SGFNT TSRA SHOULD OCCUR OVER KCNU WHERE HAIL
PERHAPS NICKEL-SIZED AND ~40KT GUSTS ARE BOTH POSSIBLE OVER KCNU
UNTIL ~26/00Z. YOU SHOULD MONITOR FCSTS COVERING THE 18Z TO 26/00Z
PERIOD CLOSELY AS THIS WOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY
FOR KCNU & KICT).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRIVE THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE RISE WITH COOLER AIR USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  70  35  57 /   0  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      41  67  32  57 /   0  30  20  10
NEWTON          44  66  34  54 /   0  40  20  10
ELDORADO        46  70  35  55 /   0  40  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  69  36  57 /   0  40  30  10
RUSSELL         37  59  29  59 /   0  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      39  64  30  59 /   0  20  10  10
SALINA          39  64  31  55 /   0  40  20  10
MCPHERSON       40  64  32  55 /   0  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  72  38  56 /  10  70  60  10
CHANUTE         43  71  36  54 /  10  60  60  10
IOLA            43  70  36  53 /  10  60  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  72  37  56 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.