Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 251646
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE HEAT WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MIXING OUT A BIT MORE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS VALUES...HOWEVER STILL SHOULD WITNESS DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MEANWHILE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-70. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN LITTLE STRONGER
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT AND HIGH INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM THE HEAT
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ALOFT ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
CONTINUATION OF HEAT HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY THIS PERIOD. IN
ADDITION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY MIGRATING NORTH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY FOR KANSAS...HOWEVER
A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A DECENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE AT MIDDAY...EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE POOLING. OTHER MORE WIDELY SEPARATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST KS WITH SLOW
EASTWARD PROPAGATION POTENTIAL. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TS AT RSL THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND VCTS AT RSL...SLN...HUT
TONIGHT. THE MAIN STORM THREATS ARE STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  76 100  77 /  20  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  76 101  77 /  30  40  10  10
NEWTON          99  75  99  76 /  30  30  20  10
ELDORADO        99  76  99  77 /  20  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  75  98  76 /  10  20  10   0
RUSSELL         98  73 101  74 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      99  73 101  74 /  30  40  10  20
SALINA         100  75 103  77 /  40  40  20  20
MCPHERSON      100  75 101  75 /  30  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  76  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         97  76  96  75 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            98  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    98  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ071-
072-095-096-099-100.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.