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000
FXUS63 KICT 121748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

UPDATED SKY AND POP TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MWM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT:
GOING FORECAST ON TRACK...AS ELEVATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CHANCES INCREASING A BIT DURING
THE DAY. NAM STILL MOST CONSISTENT WITH CHANCES INCREASES ALONG
NORTHEASTERN BORDER DURING THE DAY AND ALL MODELS DRIBBLING OUT
TOKEN QPF. ANTICIPATE THIS TO MOSTLY BE ACCAS AND SPRINKLES...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER. STILL OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT CAP COULD BREAK ALONG WEAK/DEVELOPING DRYLINE JUST WEST OF
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. GOING FORECAST
HAD SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL KEEP THAT GOING. WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A
STORM OR TWO AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A BIT AND GOING
WITH A MODEL BLEND GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN UNBEATABLE ON MAXES THE
LAST TWO DAYS.

MON-TUE:
FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE WITH LONG WAVE PATTERN AND
GENERALLY SHOW SIMILAR SURFACE FEATURES EARLY ON...WITH MINOR
TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER WED.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS HINT THAT THE FRONT WILL EFFECTIVELY WASH OUT BY
THU...LEAVING FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE EITHER OVER THE AREA OR NEARBY
AND BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AKA A SUMMER PATTERN. IF
MOISTURE DOES REMAINS OVER THE AREA...WOULD POTENTIALLY SET UP
MULTIPLE DAYS OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN KS ON
DRYLINE THEN WORKING INTO AREA DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
0000 UTC GFS DEVELOPS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THU NIGHT OVER
NEBRASKA AND MOVES REMNANTS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06-18 UTC FRI.
THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT NOT INCONCEIVABLE. OF COURSE THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON FROM
CONVERGENCE ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED...BUT GFS HINTS THAT CAPPING MAY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME IN
ABSENCE OF MORE ROBUST FORCING. ALL SAID...AM RESIGNED TO KEEP
SMALL POPS GOING THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. KCNU MAY EXPERIENCE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER AROUND MID-AFTERNOON POSSIBLY LOWERING CIGS NEAR MVFR
BRIEFLY...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  49  84  59 /  20  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  48  85  60 /  20  20   0   0
NEWTON          67  47  82  58 /  20  20   0   0
ELDORADO        67  48  82  59 /  20  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  50  83  60 /  20  20   0   0
RUSSELL         75  49  89  60 /  20  20   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  49  88  60 /  20  20   0   0
SALINA          70  48  85  61 /  20  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       70  47  85  60 /  20  20   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  48  80  57 /  20  20   0   0
CHANUTE         65  47  79  57 /  20  20   0   0
IOLA            64  46  78  57 /  20  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    66  47  80  57 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$