Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 102342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
542 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The main challenge is the timing of the return of the shallow
Arctic air Wednesday afternoon/evening and then the onset of an
extended period of impactful Wintry precipitation beginning on
Friday. A milder southerly low level flow will quickly reassert
itself tonight as an Arctic cold front slides south across the
northern Plains. Latest guidance supports current timing with
frontal passage along the I-70 corridor in central Kansas by early
afternoon and southern Kansas by early evening. Colder and dry
weather for Thursday, then even colder on Friday. The developing
upper trough off the California coast is expected to move onshore
with a closed low evolving and settling south just off southern
California by Friday. The elevated low-level return south-
southwesterly flow will ramp up over the shallow cold dome during
Friday with an initial bout of light precipitation expected.
Forecast plan view and point soundings support mainly freezing
rain with perhaps some sleet developing from south to north over
the area. Antecedent dry air may delay the more widespread onset
until Friday evening/Friday night, though a gradual increase in
PoPs looks warranted through the day on Friday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Potential for impactful/hazardous Winter weather this weekend
remains the main challenge and concern. The medium range models
continue to trend a bit slower in the overall evolution and
movement of the upper low from Baja on Saturday across New Mexico
Sunday into the Panhandles Sunday night. Increasing moisture and
periodic lift within the broad and persistent overrunning of the
shallow Arctic airmass ahead of the upper low will result in bouts
of measurable precipitation. While temperatures remain well above
freezing aloft for relatively higher confidence in liquid precip,
the modification of the sub-freezing Arctic air at the surface
remains the main challenge for duration of freezing rain and
potential for significant icing. We are likely to experience
periodic bouts and lulls in the more widespread precip from Friday
night through Sunday night. Initially driven by the warm, moist
advection/isentropic lift and then by the larger scale ascent
ahead of the main upper low Sunday night. Surface temperatures by
Sunday should warm just above freezing over most of the area for
mainly rain in the afternoon. Then as the upper low or upper trof
lifts bodily northeast across Kansas on Monday a changeover to a
Wintry mix to snow will be possible, mainly over central Kansas.

So overall, the main potential impact and hazard remains ice
accumulation from periodic bouts of freezing rain from Friday
through early Sunday. While the entire area looks to be affected
at some point, southern Kansas looks to be impacted early on and
perhaps with a bit more QPF than further north into central
Kansas. Either way, hazardous travel conditions remain possible
across the entire area this weekend with ice accumulations enough
to cause damage and power outages still possible. Rather high
precipitable water values near the Oklahoma border in southeast
Kansas could lead to efficient rainfall as well late Sunday with
some concern with flooding also possible.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

South/southwesterly winds will once again be on the increase
tonight into Wednesday, with a cold front switching winds to
northerly by late Wednesday. A strengthening south/southwesterly
low-level jet around 1500-2000 ft AGL will support low-level wind
shear overnight into early Wednesday for most locations. SCT-BKN
high level clouds will stream east across the region through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  65  23  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      38  62  19  34 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          39  60  20  33 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        39  63  23  36 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   39  68  27  40 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         37  52  14  30 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      37  57  15  32 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          37  56  17  31 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       38  59  18  32 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     39  71  33  42 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         37  68  28  38 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            37  66  27  37 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    38  70  31  40 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK



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