Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 270446
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ON THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL NAVIGATE EASTWARD AND
STAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL QUICKLY WRAP ITSELF UP ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PER LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM HI-RES
GUIDANCE...THINKING MATURE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST KS SHOULD REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF BARTON-
RUSSELL COUNTY BETWEEN 11PM-MIDNIGHT. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH
TIME...THINKING THE MCS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE 40-55 MPH WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF I-135 OVER CENTRAL KS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE MOVING IN FROM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE DEPICTED A
LATER ENTRANCE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH LED TO ADJUSTING THE POPS
TO THE LATTER TIME PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...THERE COULD
BE LINGERING CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO START THE WORK WEEK.
A SIMILAR STORY AND A DIFFERENT DAY SHALL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR 100 DEGREES
FOR MONDAY...HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR. THUS
DECISION CAN BE MADE FOR THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEXT FORECAST

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVE COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MID WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...VALUES MAY BE EVEN
LOWER GIVEN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER PARTICULARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SAME TUNE AS
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE WITH ONLY THE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS PER MODEL
DEPICTION.

VP

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY STAYING PUT OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE
NORTHWARD POSITION OF THE JET STREAM. MODELS HINTING AT A COUPLE
OF WEAK WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES AROUND 90 DEGREES
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

VP

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO CENTRAL KS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY RSL AND POSSIBLY SLN. PERIODIC STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO
30-40 KTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
THINKING HUT WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS COMPLEX...AND
MAY NOT BE AFFECTED AT ALL...BUT DID INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO FOR TS
AND ERRATIC WINDS JUST IN CASE. ICT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ABSOLUTE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF VCTS/VCSH AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALL AREAS MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING
BREEZY/GUSTY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

RECORD WARM LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RUSSELL AND SALINA ON
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON MINIMAL INFLUENCE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING TO PRIOR TO CLIMATE ISSUANCE.
COOLER AIR FROM ANY OUTFLOW OR RAIN COOLED AIR WILL SQUASH THE
POTENTIAL.

VP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  77  99 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      75 100  77 100 /  50  10  10  20
NEWTON          76  98  76  98 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        76  98  76  98 /  20  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  98  76  97 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         72 100  77  98 /  90  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      72 100  76  99 /  90  20  10  30
SALINA          74 100  78 100 /  60  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       75 100  77 100 /  50  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         76  96  76  96 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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