Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS63 KICT 101355
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
755 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

This Morning:
With SW winds across Southeast KS having subsided to 15-25 mph the
Wind Advisory that had been in effect until 9 AM CST was cancelled.
A 2nd reason for the update was that some light rain developed in
parts of Central KS but only trace amounts would result. The light
rain should vacate these areas by 10 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This morning through Thursday night)
Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Corrected:
Today-Wednesday:
Hoisted a wind advisory until 900 AM CST for Southeast KS earlier
this morning as a strong low level jet intermittently mixes to the
surface. Fast moving shortwave will push Pacific front through
much of the area this morning, leaving mostly sunny skies and
downslope flow for most of the day. Given temperatures at 2 am
were already within a few degrees of forecast maxes, so have upped
maxes for today. Temperatures tonight will be mild as well with
modest south flow overnight and some increase in clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Forecast remains in flux as tonights model runs have not surprisingly
changed enough to warrant noteworthy changes to going forecast if
they were taken at face value. Foremost is timing with both
GFS/ECMWF a fair amount slower, with precipitation starting after
daybreak Friday and lingering into the day on Monday. Both show a
surface low moving up the front roughly along the turnpike Sunday
night. The net result at face value would be to expand icing
threat a bit more to the west. Still showing icing in far
Southeast KS at onset but with a changeover to rain on Saturday
for the extreme southeast sections on Saturday. On Sunday about
the southeast two thirds of forecast area is expected to
changeover to rain. A lot will be riding on the track of the wave
and whether surface flow will sustain the cold air advection to
keep boundary layer below freezing. While there is little
question of cold air initially given the 1040+mb surface high in
the northern plains, low level flow is relatively weak across the
area which might limit duration of freezing rain. On the flip
side, GFS also shows a sliver of MUCAPE along OK border Saturday
morning. Still plenty of fuel for speculation. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Hazard: Major!
An extremely intense cyclone that at issuance is centered over the
NE Nebraska/SE SD bdr & from which a pronounced trof extends SW to
Wrn OK wl cont to be a major factor in very strong SWLY low-lvl
wind shear acrs SC & SE KS. Acrs Cntrl KS, where the lwr-deck trof
has passed, the low-lvl shear would be NWLY. Speeds arnd 50kts
would be encountered acrs all areas until mid-mrng by which time
the low-lvl jet wl have weakened. The strongest S-SW sfc winds
sustained arnd 25kts w/ gusts arnd 35kts would be encountered over
SE KS early this mrng arnd which time the passage of the sfc trof
would induce a whift to WLY w/ some diminishment. Winds acrs all
terminals would greatly diminish this aftn as a broad, but weak,
ridge axis moves E acrs Nebraska & KS w/ further backing to a SLY
component resulting.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  39  62  23 /  10   0   0  10
Hutchinson      59  39  58  18 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          58  39  56  20 /  20   0   0  10
ElDorado        60  39  61  23 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   63  40  65  26 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         56  38  46  14 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      57  38  51  16 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          56  38  53  16 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       58  39  55  17 /  20   0   0  10
Coffeyville     65  39  68  34 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         61  37  65  28 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            60  36  64  27 /  10   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    64  38  67  31 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.