Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 061129
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
529 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Northwest flow will keep very dry conditions over the region for
the next several days. Mid level flow is more westerly to start
which is allowing some WAA to occur over the region. This will
keep temperatures similar to yesterday before a post frontal
trough moves through the region late in the afternoon. Once the
trough passes through, CAA will return. Temperatures will drop
overnight and will remain cold through Thursday. Mid level
moisture will increase as mid and upper level forcing improve.
Normally, this set up would produce some snow flurries or light
snow however, with continued northwest flow and very low relative
humidities in the low levels, the chances for any precipitation is
nearly non-existent for the short term. Thursday night, the upper
level trough will transit to the east and ridging from the west
will build into the region. This will allow WAA to return to the
mid and low levels and allow temperatures to recover some for
Friday toward normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Long term will be marked by a nice warm up for the weekend as
ridging will continue to build into the region and westerly down
slope flow will allow temperatures to climb back up above normal.
Long range models and the GEFS plumes are clustering around the
warm temperatures and dry conditions for the weekend which allows
confidence to remain rather high for the weekend. Early next week
currently appears to have another strong frontal system move
through. Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate a strong push of cold air
will move south from Central Canada. Confidence is low and timing
and intensity at this time as the ECMWF pushes the bulk of the
colder air to the east while the GFS is a little further west.
Confidence is higher for the lack of precipitation as both models
clearly indicate the bulk of the moisture transport will be too
far to the east to produce much if any precipitation from this
frontal passage on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Confidence is high in VFR conditions persisting through this
forecast valid period.

Light westerly winds early this morning, will become northwesterly
while increasing with gusts of 20-25 knots from midday into this
afternoon. Northwest winds should diminish for a few hours around
sunset, before a cold surge arrives from the north. Winds will
veer to more northerly by mid-late evening, with gusts of 20-25
knots in central/south-central Kansas. Mid-level altocumulus
clouds will accompany the cold air advection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  21  35  19 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      46  20  34  19 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          46  20  33  18 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        46  22  33  18 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   47  23  35  19 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         44  17  34  20 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      45  19  34  19 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          44  19  33  19 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson       46  20  33  17 /   0  10   0   0
Coffeyville     47  24  35  18 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         46  23  33  18 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            46  22  33  18 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    47  24  35  18 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...JMC



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