Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 230925
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN
TX. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND DOWN INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
EAST OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER OK TODAY AND INTO THE OZARK REGION
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER TODAY AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL MO BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
SOME RAIN IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT TO RUN WITH A LOWER END WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
MIXING...FEEL GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ABOVE 30 MPH. RAIN WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KS
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AIRMASS TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AT ALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND EVEN
LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR MON. WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY SWING THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE GFS DIVING A PIECE OF ENERGY
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHEAST KS FOR TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PLAINS FOR WED INTO THU BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT AHEAD OF A
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE. WHILE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH
THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY WINTRY EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE SOME POLAR AIR MAY TRY TO SPILL
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTS IN POLAR AIR MAKING IT
FURTHER SOUTH BY FRI MORNING COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE ECMWF DOES
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE COLDER SOLUTION MAYBE CORRECT. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF TEMPS ARE DROPPED EVEN MORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
VISIBILITIES UP DESPITE LOWER CEILINGS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY MORNING A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING WITH IT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND HELP CEILINGS TO
RISE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR BY EVENING AS THE FRONT AND RAIN CLEARS
THE AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  30  49  26 /  60  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  29  51  23 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          56  29  48  25 /  60  20  10   0
ELDORADO        58  32  48  28 /  60  30  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  31  49  27 /  60  30   0   0
RUSSELL         49  27  50  22 /  60  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  28  51  24 /  60  10   0   0
SALINA          53  30  48  24 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       54  29  49  24 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  34  48  27 /  70  60  10   0
CHANUTE         63  31  46  24 /  70  70  10   0
IOLA            63  31  46  24 /  70  70  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  32  48  25 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ049-051>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

&&

$$



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