Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 060730
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MODEST
INSTABILITY AS TAIL END OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AND/OR EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MID-MORNING WITH SLIGHT RIDGING AND WARMING ALOFT BY THE AFTERNOON
CAPPING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE AREA. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITHIN THE SLIGHTLY VEERED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WILL USE A MODIFIED
PERSISTENCE APPROACH FOR MAXS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE AFTER SUNSET ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT MAXS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SO WILL LIKEWISE TRANSITION MODEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION QUICKER
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

A DRIER AND LESS HOT AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. UPPER
RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT RETURNING TO KANSAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS/WEST CENTRAL MO THIS
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST KS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING ACCAS
THERE. WILL KEEP A VCTS AT CNU OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
WITH DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25
KNOTS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  74  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      97  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          95  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        94  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         99  70 100  69 /  10  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      99  71 101  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          99  73 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       97  73  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         92  73  95  73 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            92  73  95  73 /  20  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    92  74  96  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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