Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 200413
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1113 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MIX OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
HIGHS REMAINED IN THE 70S...FURTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO
THE LOW 90S. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS
QUITE A CHANGE FROM A FEW DAYS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO DIG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AREA HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLE AND DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MAINTAINED MID POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS: DENSE FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...AND TSRA
POTENTIAL SATURDAY EVENING.

FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND BECOME DENSE IN SOUTHEAST
KS OVERNIGHT...WITH DECOUPLED...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL IMPACT THE CNU TERMINAL WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN
OFF TOWARD MID-LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY/WEAK SHEAR COULD
LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WHICH COULD IMPACT RSL AND SLN
TERMINALS FROM 00Z TO 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  89  66  82 /   0  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      67  89  64  81 /  10  20  40  20
NEWTON          66  87  64  80 /   0  20  40  20
ELDORADO        67  88  65  81 /   0  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  66  84 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         67  89  59  79 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      66  88  62  80 /  10  20  40  10
SALINA          68  89  62  81 /  10  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       67  89  62  81 /  10  30  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  88  67  85 /   0  20  20  30
CHANUTE         64  88  65  83 /   0  20  30  20
IOLA            63  87  65  82 /   0  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    64  88  65  84 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$







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