Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232326
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Main forecast challenges: Thunderstorm potential and associated
mesoscale influences on storm threat areas over the next few days.

Current mesoscale storm complex over southeastern KS should
continue to gradually diminish through early this evening, as 850
inflow backs and shifts to the west. Visible satellite and radar
imagery loops show MCS-induced outflow pushing westward into
western KS and northwest OK late this afternoon. The best chance
for strong to severe thunderstorm development this evening appears
to be along a stalled front over western Kansas, and from near a
triple point/outflow intersection over south-central
Kansas/northwest Oklahoma, to southward along a dryline near the
eastern Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma border. Some large-scale
ascent is possible from a shortwave ejecting east-northeastward
out of Colorado. Some of this storm activity could affect areas of
central and south-central KS tonight (especially mid-evening
onward), as a 45 knot low-level jet develops and feeds strong
moisture transport northeastward. Strongest isentropic lift on the
310K surface is along nose of the low-level jet, so thinking
highest probabilities for storms will be in central/south-central
Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds could accompany these
storms. Clusters of elevated storms may linger over eastern Kansas
into midday or early afternoon Tuesday, with isentropic lift then
diminishing thereafter, as the low-level jet backs/weakens.

Initial surface-based strong-severe storms may develop near a
dryline (from western KS to Texas Panhandle) late Tues pm/eve,
contingent on sufficient low-level convergence. Very strong
instability and 30-40 knots of deep layer shear would support
isolated supercells. Will maintain 20-40% probabilities for
thunderstorms area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, as
another low-level jet with strong moisture transport/isentropic
upglide may sustain activity coming off of the dryline eastward.

The next decent round of thunderstorms should occur from late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a strong shortwave trough
begins ejecting out of the Four Corners region, providing increased
southwesterly mid-level winds across Kansas. Central/Eastern Kansas
are progged in the warm sector with rich gulf moisture/instability
in place, and potentially strong deep layer shear. This will support
an elevated risk of organized severe weather, in especially central
and south-central Kansas, with all severe weather facets possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thunderstorm chances will linger in eastern Kansas Friday as the
aforementioned strong shortwave trough lifts northeastward through
the Kansas region with a slight negative tilt. Beyond Friday, there
are large discrepancies between the GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF models with
respect to the upper pattern across the CONUS, particularly with
mean upper troughing out west. Hard for foresee more than a slight
chance of storms Saturday through Monday for Memorial Day Weekend,
unless the models come into better agreement and show a consensus
better signal for storms in the region. Climatology suggests that
could happen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Areas of MVFR CIGS are expected along and west of the Kansas
turnpike early Tuesday morning, with a chance for elevated
convection/storms. Otherwise, little change to the weather
pattern expected with mainly VFR conditions during the
afternoon with diurnally gusty south to southeast winds.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  81  68  87 /  40  40  30  10
Hutchinson      67  82  68  87 /  50  40  30  10
Newton          67  81  68  86 /  40  50  30  10
ElDorado        68  80  68  85 /  30  40  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   68  81  68  87 /  30  30  30  10
Russell         64  83  66  88 /  50  30  30  10
Great Bend      64  83  67  88 /  50  30  30  10
Salina          66  82  68  87 /  50  50  40  20
McPherson       66  82  68  87 /  40  50  30  10
Coffeyville     67  80  69  83 /  20  30  30  30
Chanute         67  80  69  83 /  30  40  30  30
Iola            67  80  69  82 /  30  50  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  80  69  83 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KED



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