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000
FXUS63 KICT 120833
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE HEAT AND THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHICH HAS
SPARKED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS FLATTENED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE BISECTING NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MORNING LOWS ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS.

BILLINGS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
TODAY.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS THE MAIN ENERGY
MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEHIND
THE FRONT THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE REDUCTION IN WIND
AND MIXING.  NOT EXPECTING TO EXCEED ANY RECORDS TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH THURSDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON.  LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.  THIS
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES AGAIN APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK.

BILLINGS


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

BY THE WEEKEND...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AS A WEAK
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL PULL A
FRONT INTO NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...BUT NOT REACH EASTERN
KANSAS BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OVER NEBRASKA.  PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS.  SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
WORK-WEEK...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE WHOLE TIME.  CONTINUE TO
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IS LOWER.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...BUT DECREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK.

BILLINGS


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. NOT
ANTICIPATING STORMS ALONG THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER TO MAKE IT TO
KRSL OR KSLN. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. 00Z NAM A BIT SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECT FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT SLOWER AT OTHER
SITES. STILL THINK FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP MOVING ACROSS FLINT
HILLS IN PEAK HEATING. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  69  91  71 /   0  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      98  67  91  71 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          96  67  89  70 /   0  10   0  10
ELDORADO        97  67  88  69 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  71  91  71 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         95  65  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  66  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          95  66  89  70 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       97  66  90  71 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  71  89  70 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         94  69  87  68 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            94  68  87  67 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  88  69 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$