Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS...WITH FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KCNU. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KICT/KHUT/KRSL/KSLN AS WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      86  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            80  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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