Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 142328
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

THE VIGOROUS STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. A WELL
DEFINED DRY SLOT WILL BRING A MORE RAPID DEMISE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE SOME WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS. ANY BRIEF TRANSITION
TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY
ACCUMULATION.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S MON-WED. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUE-EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

MAINTAINED LOW POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALTHOUGH LARGE
PHASE/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AND LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAINTAINED MIXED
PHASE PRECIPITATION AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  46  28  43 /  40  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      40  45  25  41 /  40  30   0   0
NEWTON          41  46  26  40 /  50  30   0   0
ELDORADO        41  46  28  41 /  60  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   41  47  29  43 /  40  10   0   0
RUSSELL         35  41  21  38 /  50  30   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  42  23  40 /  40  30   0   0
SALINA          40  44  25  40 /  80  30  10   0
MCPHERSON       41  44  25  40 /  50  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     46  51  31  44 / 100  20   0   0
CHANUTE         47  51  29  42 / 100  20  10   0
IOLA            48  51  29  41 / 100  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  51  30  43 / 100  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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