Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST-CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH ABOUT 11Z BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE...DRIVEN BY A
50-55 KNOT 850 MB JET. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...AS A WARMER POCKET OF AIR SPREADS IN ON THE 305K
SURFACE. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE...NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHERE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD BECOME SATURATED FROM MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING DRYLINE...WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EARLY THIS EVE. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION MAY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY
AROUND 21-22Z OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS TO ALLOW SURFACE-BASED UPDRAFTS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH RESIDENT TIME IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS BEFORE MOVING EAST
OUT OF AREA DUE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM WINDS.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA LATE THIS PM/EVE SHOULD BE
JUST EAST OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES.

MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WHILE THE COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCAPES OF 1000-1700
J/KG MAINLY CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WED PM/EVE...WITH 40-50
KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTING CAP TO BREAK
OVER SOUTHEAST KS TOWARD 21-00Z TIMEFRAME...AS MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
STRONG FORCING ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE. STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL/WINDS. THE STORMS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID WED EVE...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM-WRF INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN KS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT FAR EASTERN KS INTO MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A FINAL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ATOP A WARM
FRONT SKIRTING FAR SOUTHERN KS...LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...AS WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD GET FAIRLY STOUT/GUSTY AT CNU FOR A TIME THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS JUST NORTH OF CNU.
MEANWHILE...STOUT/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE LOW VFR TO MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL RELAX TOWARD EVENING.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT FAR EASTERN KS INTO MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A FINAL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  43  68  36 /  10   0  20  10
HUTCHINSON      70  42  68  33 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          68  43  67  35 /  20   0  20  10
ELDORADO        70  43  68  36 /  20   0  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  43  68  37 /  10   0  40  30
RUSSELL         70  37  63  30 /  20   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  39  64  31 /  20   0  10  10
SALINA          66  39  65  32 /  30   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  41  67  33 /  20   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  43  71  39 /  20  10  60  50
CHANUTE         72  42  69  37 /  30   0  50  30
IOLA            70  42  69  37 /  40   0  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  43  69  38 /  20  10  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$


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