Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
743 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TO HAVE A TIGHT GRIP ON
TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MUCH BELOW TEMPS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEARING SKIES
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS THIS MORNING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO MINUS 5. COULD SEE
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS BUT
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE-WED: NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE
INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY LEAD TO TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...WITH THE MID WEEK HIGHS PROBABLY THE
WARMEST WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED EVENING/WED NIGHT. AS THIS FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER TOP OF TO JUST BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR MID LEVEL SATURATION TO
INCREASE.

THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN INTO A
TRANSIENT AREA OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW FOR WED NIGHT.  NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS TRANSIENT AREA OF
SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STAYING TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THU
MORNING.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THU-SUN: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR CENTERED
OVER THE PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST PLACES LATE FRIDAY INTO
SAT...BUT AS WARM ADVECTION AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PULL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...COULD SEE PRECIP CHANGEOVER OR BECOME MORE OF A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIP BY SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. CERTAINLY LOOKS
LIKE A MESSY WEEKEND IS COMING UP.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO 8,000
TO 10,000FT ALTOCU. THE ALTOCU WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN CONTINUES TO MOVE SE OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY. NE WINDS ~10KTS WILL BECOME LGT AND VARIABLE AROUND
18Z IN MOST AREAS BEFORE BECOMING SW TO UP 10KTS IN CNTRL KS LATE
THIS AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  14  45  23 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      23  13  46  21 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          22  14  44  24 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        25  15  46  25 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   25  13  45  22 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         21  13  46  22 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      21  12  46  22 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          27  16  47  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       23  15  45  22 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     26  15  43  22 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         25  14  45  23 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            24  14  45  24 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    25  14  44  22 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

*CORRECTED TYPING*



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