Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200142
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
842 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPDATED THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TO SPEED UP THE BACK/WESTERN EDGE
OF POPS OVERNIGHT...BASED OFF OBSERVATIONAL AND RAP/HRRR TRENDS.
THINKING BACK EDGE WILL REACH I-135 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE GIVEN
CONTINUED MOIST LOW-LEVELS. ALSO...GIVEN MINIMAL INSTABILITY
DESPITE THE STRONG 900-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED...SO CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. HELD ONTO
IT FOR A WHILE LONGER OVER SOUTHEAST KS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
NIX THE WATCH SOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
NONETHELESS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY/CONVECTIVE RAINS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON
SOUTHWARD...ALONG/NORTH OF INSTABILITY POOL.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE UT AREA WITH THE MAIN
VORT LOBE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN CO WITH ANOTHER LEAD PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN AR INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISO STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 850-700
THETA-E ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE LEAD IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN 12Z MODELS INDICATED AND BY AROUND 06Z JUST SOME DRIZZLE CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.50-1.00" RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH JUST SOME TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE
AREAS EXPERIENCING SOME MINOR FLOODING. THE EXCEPTION MAYBE SE KS
AS SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

BY WED MORNING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS DOWNGLIDE SETS IN OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KS. THE COOL
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY TOP OUT IN THE 60S. WOULDN`T BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SITES OVER CENTRAL KS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
WED NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THUR AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
REGION COMES ON SHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.

BY FRI MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SW AND WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREEING ON A PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NM AND ACROSS THE AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
WILL RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES. THE GULF WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM NORTH. THERE REALLY ISN`T GOING TO BE A SURFACE FRONT
TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THIS WEEKEND. SO THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING AS THE BETTER
UPPER JET SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS BETTER FORCING/UPPER
DIFFLUENCE LOOKS TO START AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. BY MON THE MAJORITY OF THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING CNU. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY DIP BELOW 2000 FT AGL MOST SITES THIS EVENING...WITH IFR
LIKELY GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM EAST/NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AGAIN BY MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  63  46  66 /  80  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  61  42  66 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          46  61  44  64 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        50  63  46  65 /  90  30  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  67  47  67 / 100  30  10  10
RUSSELL         42  58  40  64 / 100  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      43  59  41  64 /  90  20  10  10
SALINA          48  59  42  66 /  80  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       47  60  43  65 /  80  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  68  48  65 / 100  50  10  10
CHANUTE         55  63  47  64 / 100  60  10  10
IOLA            54  62  47  64 / 100  60  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  66  45  64 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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