Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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133
FXUS63 KICT 241738
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1238 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A potent mid level low over the Rockies is progged to lift northeast
into the Northern Plains states today. A trailing frontal boundary
across central KS will become a focus for showers and storms across
the area this afternoon and tonight. There remains the potential for
heavy rain and flooding with an anomalously high amount of moisture
in the column but given the lack of rainfall over the past two weeks
no flooding headlines are planned at this time.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
during the day today with decreased insolation limiting instability.
A few pockets of moderate instability may still result in a few
strong or severe storms with strong wind gusts but the primary
threat appears to be heavy rainfall. Areas of heavy rain will linger
into the overnight hours where 2-3+ inches are anticipated across
portions of south central and southeast KS. The chances for rain
will rapidly diminish from west to east on Sunday as a strong cold
front ushers in much cooler and drier air. Cool and dry conditions
will linger into Monday with highs remaining in the low 70s while
lows fall into the 40s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A subtle warming trend is anticipated as we move through the
upcoming week. Dry weather conditions and below normal
temperatures are anticipated at the start of the period as a
mid/upper trough meanders over the Great Lakes/Central
Appalachians with rising heights/increasing thickness progged
across the Central Plains. Maintained low pops toward the end of
the week as a shortwave trough lifts northeast and the mid/upper
ridge breaks down across the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Thunder chances and ceilings will be the main issue with this
issuance. For all taf sties except for KCNU, thunder and rain
chances will prevail ahead of a front as it slowly slides east
overnight. The tropical type environment with some slight
instability will provide enough lift to keep showers and isolated
trw in the taf issuance. The ceilings will bounce between vfr and
mvfr with the spotty/scattered nature of these pesky showers and
storms. a few isolated ifr ceilings are also possible. KCNU will
see the same scenario late saturday night into Sunday. With the
frontal passage, we will see the ceilings rise and erode, but
north winds between 10 and 20 knots are likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  63  73  51 /  80  80  50  10
Hutchinson      84  61  73  48 /  80  80  30  10
Newton          84  62  73  50 /  80  80  50  10
ElDorado        84  64  72  51 /  80  80  70  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  65  73  52 /  80  80  70  10
Russell         82  55  73  44 /  60  50  10  10
Great Bend      83  57  73  45 /  60  60  10  10
Salina          87  60  74  47 /  80  80  20  10
McPherson       84  60  73  48 /  80  80  30  10
Coffeyville     89  68  74  54 /  50  80  80  30
Chanute         87  66  72  52 /  60  80  80  20
Iola            87  66  72  52 /  60  80  80  10
Parsons-KPPF    88  67  73  53 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CWH



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