Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Broad longwave troughing was observed across the northern Plains as
cutoff energy near the Hudson Bay has draped a trailing cold
front from the Great Lakes Region down into the central and high
Plains. Embedded within the longwave troughing, shortwave energy
was evident on water vapor imagery digging southward across the
Northern Rockies.

Convection across much of Nebraska this morning has weakened
dramatically; however, a strong cold pool has resulted in a
southwest to northeast oriented undular bore propagating southward
across Nebraska and into northern Kansas this morning. As this
undular bore continues to run into 850mb moisture transport across
northwestern Kansas, ongoing convection has begun to deepen.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Updated to mainly delay the higher storm chances until just after
00z for areas southeast of the KS Turnpike.

Cold front has pushed southeast faster than what we were thinking
yesterday and looks to be aided by outflow from morning convection
over nw KS. Cold front currently extends from near KCNK-KRSL-KDDC.
Storms should develop in the next couple of hours along the front
over central KS with a couple storms already developing just
behind the front. Even with the faster movement, it still doesn`t
look like areas southeast of the KS Turnpike will be affected
until after 00z, so tweaked pops accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The main forecast concern is the arrival of a strong cold front
later this afternoon/evening which will be the primary focus for
strong to severe thunderstorms later today. Saturday and Sunday as
high pressure drops down from the Northern Rockies, a dry and
cooler post frontal airmass will take over.

There are some discrepancies amongst the models on the arrival of
the cold front and the resulting deep convection expected to
develop later this afternoon/evening, with the high-res models
being a bit more aggressive and developing convection earlier
across central and south central Kansas compared the synoptic
scale models. To complicate the matter, an undular bore has
continued to surge southward into northern Kansas and may provide
an additional source of lift.

Current thinking is that convective initiation will begin during
the early to mid afternoon hours across central Kansas as
convergence increases along the cold front, and any lingering
boundaries, as shortwave energy begins to dig south across
central Kansas. With increasing low-level moisture ahead of the
frontal boundary and steep mid-level lapse rates, forecast
soundings suggest fat CAPE profiles with around 2000-2500 J/kg of
instability will develop this afternoon. Effective bulk shear
will begin to increase to around 30-35 knots with decent
directional shear later this afternoon/evening. Therefore, cannot
rule out a brief window of opportunity for large hail and damaging
winds across central Kansas, especially if any discrete rotating
updrafts can develop and persist. As convergence along the frontal
boundary and large scale ascent increases, expect storms to grow
upscale into a linear complex as they move east-southeast
throughout the evening and overnight hours across south central
and southeast Kansas, with damaging winds being the primary
threat.

By the mid morning hours on Saturday the cold front will push out
of southeast Kansas as a dry, cooler post frontal airmass moves
into the region. Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the
weekend with high temperatures in the 70s, which is about 10-15
degrees below normal for this time of year. By Sunday as southerly
flow returns to the region, along with warming 850mb temperatures,
temperatures should warm up into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

With high pressure anchored over the eastern CONUS, southerly flow
at the low-levels will allow for moisture to advect back northward
ahead of upper-level troughing lifting out of the Southern Rockies
by Tuesday/Wednesday. At the same time, a deep upper-level low will
traverse the Northern Plains dropping another cold front across the
region. There is some disagreement amongst the models in regards to
the timing of this frontal passage; therefore, confidence is not
high in the timing of showers and thunderstorms next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Main aviation concern will be storms late this afternoon and
overnight as a strong cold front sweeps through.

Cold front currently stretches from generally KCNK-KRSL-KDDC and
is continuing to push southeast. Storms are expected to develop
along this front in a couple hours first over central KS and
eventually over south central and se KS. Storms look to affect
KHUT around 23z, KICT around 00z and KCNU around 03z. Main threats
with storms will be microburst straight-line winds along with very
high rainfall rates. Hail will be possible but should remain at or
below quarter size. Could see some MVFR cigs behind the front as
cooler air spills south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  65  77  57 /  30  80  10  10
Hutchinson      91  63  76  55 /  50  80  10  10
Newton          91  63  76  56 /  40  80  10  10
ElDorado        91  65  77  56 /  30  80  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  67  78  57 /  20  80  10  10
Russell         87  58  77  54 /  70  80  10   0
Great Bend      89  60  76  54 /  70  80  10   0
Salina          90  62  78  55 /  60  80  10  10
McPherson       91  62  76  55 /  50  80  10  10
Coffeyville     87  69  80  57 /  20  70  20  10
Chanute         88  68  78  56 /  20  80  20  10
Iola            88  68  78  56 /  20  80  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    87  69  79  56 /  20  80  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RBL
SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...RBL



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