Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 230515
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1215 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG
POOLING OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...WITH WARMER
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVERGE INTO
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD SPARK OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEARING IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT MONDAY WHILE THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE DEEPENS FURTHER HEADING INTO TUESDAY.

A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG PV ANOMALY. A DRYLINE WILL
RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DRY LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE SURGING DRYLINE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID-
LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS. ONCE AGAIN A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI
BEFORE SUNSET. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL STILL BE LURKING IN THE VICINITY OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO POSSIBLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH COLDER AIR SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE COLDER AIR IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY GENERATE
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH
DAMPENS OUT A BIT.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

SE-MOVG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED CNTRL KS WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE N/NE AND INCRD 17KTS/20MPH SUSTAINED BUT NO GUSTINESS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO ENTER KHUT ~07Z & KICT ~10Z WITH
THE FRONT STALLING ALG KS/OK BORDER MID MON MRNG. STILL CONCERNED
THAT THAT IFR CIGS ~800FT MAY DEVELOP OVER KICT & KCNU 10-12Z
WHERE LWR-DECK MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE DECELERATING FRONT.
IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT CIGS OVER KCNU MAY ONLY REACH ~2,500FT MID
TO LATE MON MRNG SO THIS PERIOD WILL DRAW CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION
OVER THE NEXT 18HRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MEDIUM FOR MONDAY BUT LOOK TO
WORSEN ON TUESDAY. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
AN EASTWARD ADVANCING DRY LINE WILL GIVE WAY TO VERY HIGH OR
POSSIBLE EXTREME FIRE DANGER LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  76  44  68 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  75  42  67 /  50  10  10  10
NEWTON          55  74  44  66 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  77  44  68 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  80  44  69 /  30  10  10  20
RUSSELL         47  72  38  66 /  50  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      48  73  39  66 /  40  20  10  10
SALINA          52  71  41  67 /  70  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  74  41  66 /  60  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  78  46  71 /  30  30  10  40
CHANUTE         55  76  46  68 /  50  40  10  30
IOLA            55  75  46  68 /  50  40  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    56  77  46  70 /  40  30  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.