Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 112348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS MAY EXCEED 90 ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARPER & KINGMAN COUNTIES
WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S C.
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AFTER 21Z AS THE CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE
DRYLINE NEAR P28 BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 04-06Z ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR NORTHEAST KANSAS OR THE COUNTIES MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED LOW POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A STOUT CAP MAY PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TOWARD MIDDAY ON SUNDAY ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT A
TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND MAINLY ON ELEVATED OR GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES AND A FROST OR FREEZE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST
OR FREEZE HEADLINES MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
POSITION OF THE SFC RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONABLE NORMALS IN
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED NIGHT/THU KNOCKING HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOW 60S ON THU. MAINTAINED LOW POPS THU-THU NIGHT

FIRE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE
COLORADO STATE LINE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

AREAS OF SMOKE (FU) WILL OCCASIONALLY RESTRICT VSBYS TO 4-5SM IN CNTRL
& SC KS THIS EVENING THEN LATE TONIGHT STRONG LWR-DECK MOIST ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ~1,000FT CIGS OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS STARTING ~09Z WITH
4-5SM VSBYS IN MANY AREAS. LATE SAT MORNING ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR STATUS AS THE APPROACHING...INTENSE WRN PLAINS SFC TROF INDUCES S
WINDS TO GREATLY INCREASE TO ~22KTS/25MPH SUSTAINED IN MOST AREAS WITH
~30KT/35MPH GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE
COLORADO STATE LINE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  85  62  70 /  10  10  10  60
HUTCHINSON      56  85  61  67 /  10  20  20  60
NEWTON          56  82  62  69 /  10  10  20  70
ELDORADO        57  81  62  72 /  10  10  20  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  84  62  74 /  10  10  10  80
RUSSELL         55  81  55  56 /  10  20  30  60
GREAT BEND      55  84  56  59 /  10  20  20  50
SALINA          57  81  59  64 /  10  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       55  83  60  67 /  10  20  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     60  80  64  75 /  10  10  10  80
CHANUTE         58  80  63  74 /  10  10  20  80
IOLA            58  80  63  73 /  10  10  20  80
PARSONS-KPPF    59  80  64  74 /  10  10  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES






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