Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 121745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1145 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Relatively low impact weather expected for at least the next 7-10
days across the region. No major cold snaps are expected, with
daily temperatures bouncing around either side of normal through
next weekend.

Areas of drizzle and fog will gradually exit to the southeast
early this morning, as large scale subsidence progresses southeast
across the region in wake of an upper level disturbance and
associated weak cool front. Drier air will be slow to spread
south, so mostly cloudy skies should linger into at least early
afternoon.

Another prolonged drizzle event is expected from late Monday
through Tuesday night or early Wednesday, as modest to strong low-
level isentropic ascent and moisture transport commences ahead of
shortwave energy approaching from the Northern Rockies. Thinking
the greatest drizzle coverage will be generally over the eastern
half of Kansas. Precipitation amounts will once again remain
light. May see a few thunderstorms over eastern Kansas Tuesday
night as a cool front slices southeast across the region. Limited
instability and best lift remaining north of the forecast area
will likely preclude strong to severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Yet another round of low clouds and drizzle is possible in the
Thursday/Friday timeframe , as a strong shortwave and associated
cold front approach from the northwest. Precipitation amounts
should once again remain light. Could see a few
showers/thunderstorms over far eastern Kansas as the cold front
slices across the region. Limited instability should preclude
strong/severe storms across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Conditions are or will become VFR at all sites this afternoon.
Surface ridge axis moves across area tonight. Main concern is that
the lack of a good intrusion of dry air early in the forecast,
will allow low level moisture to slosh back north/west later
tonight after some decent radiational cooling. Boundary layer
forecasts hint that MVFR-IFR stratus would be main threat, but
synoptic pattern would make fog the more likely scenario. Either
way MVFR conditions appear likely enough to forecast. Then to
compound the issue, influx of 850MB moisture will spread west to
east during the daylight hours, although this would be a VFR deck.
-howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  39  54  49 /   0   0  20  30
Hutchinson      53  36  53  48 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          53  37  53  48 /   0   0  10  20
ElDorado        54  37  55  49 /   0   0  10  40
Winfield-KWLD   57  39  55  51 /   0   0  20  40
Russell         52  35  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      52  36  55  44 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          53  36  56  48 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       53  36  54  47 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     58  38  57  50 /  10   0  10  40
Chanute         55  37  55  48 /  10   0   0  40
Iola            54  37  55  47 /   0   0   0  40
Parsons-KPPF    57  38  56  49 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ADK



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