Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 170908
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Patchy drizzle will impact portions of eastern and southeast KS
early this morning, as low-level lift continues to progress
southeast across the region in wake of this past weekend storm
system. Skies will gradually become sunny from the west through
the day, with forecast highs mostly in the 40s. A compact upper
disturbance will approach the region from the southwest tonight,
possibly supporting a few light showers/sprinkles late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Will keep a dry forecast for now as this
quick- hitting system won`t have much moisture to work with, with
better chances for light rain remaining south across Oklahoma.
Forecast highs Wednesday will reach the 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Per medium range model and ensemble consensus, a fairly active
pattern is expected to prevail late this week through early to mid
next week, as a train of weather systems traverses Mid- America.
The first system will be fairly minor, with a chance for light
rain showers Thursday night through Friday evening, mainly over
the northern half of Kansas.

The 2nd more substantial system is expected Saturday night
through Sunday. Still some uncertainty with this system`s exact
track, with the ECMWF favoring a further north track compared to
the GFS, which would be more favorable for widespread
precipitation across the area. In contrast, the GFS would favor
better precipitation chances further south across Oklahoma and far
southern Kansas. In either scenario, thermal profiles look too
warm/marginal for wintry precipitation, although cannot rule out a
rain/snow mix as system departs Sunday evening. Accumulations look
nil to minimal.

The 3rd system looks to impact Mid-America sometime early to mid
next week. GFS ensembles and operational runs are in surprisingly
good agreement this far out surrounding the overall synoptic
pattern with this 3rd system, although exact details on track,
magnitude and amount of available cold air are obviously still in
question this far out. However, thinking out of all the systems
that will impact us the next 7-10 days, this one will have the
greatest potential for meaningful snow accumulations somewhere
across Mid- America. Stay tuned.

Temperature-wise, readings look to be near to above normal, the
next several days, with below normal temperature probabilities
increasing mid-late next week in wake of the 3rd weather system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Main Aviation Hazard: IFR/MVFR stratus.

MVFR/IFR stratus shield covering much of central/eastern Kansas
will slowly erode from northwest to southeast overnight into
Tuesday, via drier low-level air advection. As low-level cyclonic
curvature (surface-850 mb) gradually relaxes overnight, patchy
light drizzle will also come to an end in south-central KS/Flint
Hills.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  30  51  37 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      45  28  50  36 /  10   0  10  10
Newton          42  29  50  36 /  10   0  10  10
ElDorado        44  30  51  37 /  10   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   46  31  51  38 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         42  27  46  34 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      41  27  46  34 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          42  26  49  35 /  10   0  10  10
McPherson       43  27  49  35 /  10   0  10  10
Coffeyville     48  31  52  40 /   0  10  10  10
Chanute         46  30  51  38 /  10   0  10  10
Iola            45  29  50  37 /  10   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    46  30  51  39 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC



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