Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261942
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Upper low was pinwheeling over southwest Kansas at mid-afternoon
and will continue steadily eastward across Kansas tonight. While
the rowdiest convection will stay south over Oklahoma thru this
evening, the latest RAP/NAM continue to show elevated moisture
transport resulting in MLCAPE values in the 750-1100 j/kg range
developing along the Oklahoma border counties from south central
into southeast Kansas. The accompanying lift and cloud bearing
shear of 40-50kts should support strong to severe convection per
the going forecast with large hail the primary threat. Scattered
to numerous showers and embedded thunder is also expected further
north into central Kansas early this evening, before waning after
midnight. Showers will linger longest across southeast Kansas into
early Monday morning before exiting by midday or early afternoon.
The mid-week periods still look very wet and occasionally stormy,
as the next upper trof/closed low which develops over the
southwest CONUS thru early this week migrates slowly east across
the central/southern Plains Tuesday night through Thursday. While
a few strong storms will be possible on Wednesday, it looks like
some healthy and widespread QPF with heavy rainfall potential
will become the main concern for some flooding.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Yet another upper trof/closed low look to develop over
the southwest CONUS late in the week which could eventually affect
Kansas next weekend.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A warm front will drape across the KS and OK border this afternoon
and evening. This along with a decent upper system will be the
trigger for storms and showers. Low cigs will slowly erode across
the southern half of KS this afternoon and hang on to the north.
We will see a variance from lifr to mvfr for much of this forecast
period. The storms along the border have the best potential for
severe weather. With the upper system passage, the low clouds of
ifr to lifr will filter back in before a slight erosion late
tomorrow morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Periodic significant rainfall events are expected this week.
Grassland fire danger is expected to remain low to moderate.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  63  44  66 /  80  10   0  40
Hutchinson      43  63  43  64 /  80  10   0  50
Newton          44  61  43  64 /  80  10   0  30
ElDorado        46  62  44  67 /  90  20   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   48  64  45  68 /  80  10   0  30
Russell         39  64  41  61 /  60   0   0  70
Great Bend      40  64  42  61 /  60   0   0  70
Salina          43  63  42  64 /  80  10   0  40
McPherson       43  62  42  63 /  80  10   0  40
Coffeyville     51  63  43  70 /  80  30   0  10
Chanute         49  61  43  68 /  90  40   0   0
Iola            49  61  43  67 /  90  50   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  62  43  69 /  80  40   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CWH
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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