Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 100529
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1229 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Interesting late afternoon and early evening severe setup, as
surface low over central OK makes slow progress straight east across
nrn OK for the afternoon hours. The main surface synoptic cold front
attached to the low, currently over the eastern half of the Wichita
Metro area, basically along the KS Turnpike. Low level moisture
continues to increase just ahead and to the northeast of the low for
areas east of the KS turnpike and south of Highway 54. MLCAPE values
along the KS/OK border have climbed into the 1000-1500 J/KG range,
with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s. Highest
instability is along the KS/OK border.  As the late afternoon
continues the vigorous shortwave currently over Central Co will move
out into the high plains, with bulk shear increasing across the
plains to 60-65 kts across most of south central KS and southeast
KS. Placement of the warm front and northward progression of the low
level moisture will be critical to placement of severe potential for
the late afternoon and early evening hours.  The combination of the
instability and shear suggests severe producing supercells are
possible for areas east of the KS turnpike into the evening hours.
The main concern will mainly be very large hail and damaging winds,
as 0-1km CAPE in only around 200 j/kg.  But directional shear and
curving hodographs suggests that a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out at least through sunset, primarily along the KS/OK border.

Could also see a few elevated severe storms to the north of
the cold front across portions of central KS given the increasing
steep lapse rates and bulk shear into the evening hours.

Gusty post frontal winds will also increase across much of south
central KS for the evening hours, with some gusts to 45 mph
possible, so will go with a wind advisory this evening for much
central and south central KS as the front pushes SE.

The strong cold front will make its way across most of the
forecast area overnight, with lingering showers expected across
most of central KS into Tue morning as the main cold core
shortwave pushes across central KS by Tue morning. As the front
pushes south, expect to see well below normal temperatures
(ie...chilly temps) push south across the region with high temps
on Tue only in the low 50s.

Cooler than normal temps will be the main story for Tue-Wed as the
cool Canadian surface ridge of high pressure makes its way across
the area.  As the ridge moves over. expect ideal radiational cooling
conditions with light winds and clear skies possibly leading to
areas of frost over portions of central KS by Wed morning as low
temps fall into the middle 30s.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

The chilly temps will be short lived, as warmer temperatures will
quickly return to the region for Thursday-Saturday as southerly
winds push warmer air northward across the central plains.  Medium
range models suggest another shortwave will move across the northern
plains late Fri or Sat with chances of shower and storm chances
returning to the region.  Still some timing differences on when the
shortwave will move across, but both the GFS and ECMWF show another
strong front pushing southeast across the area for late Fri night or
early Sat.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Expecting post frontal showers and MVFR ceilings to continue to
develop during the night as the upper low approaches. The MVFR
ceilings should persist into the morning. Winds and clouds will
decrease during the day from west to east, with winds becoming
light and variable after sunset. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  53  38  67 /  50  40   0   0
Hutchinson      41  52  36  67 /  50  40   0   0
Newton          41  50  36  65 /  50  50   0   0
ElDorado        43  51  37  66 /  40  50   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   45  54  38  66 /  40  40   0   0
Russell         38  53  36  67 /  70  30   0   0
Great Bend      38  54  36  67 /  70  30   0   0
Salina          41  51  36  66 /  70  50   0   0
McPherson       40  51  35  66 /  50  50   0   0
Coffeyville     51  54  40  66 /  80  40   0   0
Chanute         49  52  40  65 /  80  50   0   0
Iola            49  52  40  65 /  80  50   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  53  40  66 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...PJH



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