Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1014 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST CONUS WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE SLIDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF KCNK WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS
FEATURE INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERCOLATE ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS/NW MO WHERE IMPRESSIVE
850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER IMPULSE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SAT EVENING. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL POPS OVER
THE NORTHEAST FRINGES ON SAT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGEST
WITH JUST SOME ISO ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY
DIVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ACROSS EASTERN KS SAT NIGHT.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON AND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MON NIGHT. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES MON WITH A WEAK IMPULSE POSSIBLY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS SAT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY WITH THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUE AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF SOME WEAK MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
BUT HARD TO TIME THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR TUE-WED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO PUSH THE STRONGER WESTERLIES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...LIMITING OUR RAIN CHANCES. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  96  72  95 /  20  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      69  96  71  95 /  20  10  20  10
NEWTON          70  95  71  94 /  30  20  20  10
ELDORADO        71  95  71  94 /  20  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  98  72  97 /  20  10  20  10
RUSSELL         68  95  68  94 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          68  96  70  94 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  70  94 /  40  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  93  73  96 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         71  93  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
IOLA            71  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  93  72  94 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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