Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260422
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1122 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THU WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS
HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GENERAL THEME WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MORNING ACCAS WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE EARLY ON WED MORNING WITH CONTINUED
310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RELATIVELY
SMALL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...MAINLY WEST OF I-135.
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT WITHIN A
CONTINUED AREA OF MID LVL WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALTHOUGH WARM MID
LVL TEMPERATURES MAY PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO THE
AREA ALONG A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. RECENT MODEL RUNS
APPEAR TO OFFER A SLOWER SCENARIO SO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF POPS WAS SLOWED DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY SE KS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER FROPA IN THAT REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS ANTICIPATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LOW LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RISING
HEIGHT/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS HOOVERING
AROUND MVFR. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING A BIT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  88  68  90 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      60  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          60  88  65  89 /  10  10  20  30
ELDORADO        60  89  65  87 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  88  67  88 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         62  92  69  93 /  10  10  20  50
GREAT BEND      62  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  40
SALINA          60  92  68  90 /  10  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       60  90  68  89 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     57  88  63  87 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         57  87  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            57  85  61  85 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  87  62  87 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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