Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181749
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Today-Sunday Night:
Forecast Highlight: Extreme Grassland Fire Danger likely in most
of Central & South-Central KS on Sun.

A STRONG upper-deck ridge that has been situated over the Rockies
during the night will move slowly east across the Northern &
Central Plains today & tonight, then across the Great Lakes &
Ontario on Sun where it`ll take on a positive tilt. With a broad
mid-upper trof moving east across Southern Canada, the mid-upper
flow would become zonal. The eastward-moving trof would induce a
sfc trof to develop across the Northwestern Plains tonight & drag
the sfc trof east into the Western Plains late tonight. A weak sfc
low should develop near the CO/KS border on Sun. The strengthening
sfc trof/low would team with strong high pressure covering the
Gulf Coast to induce S-SW winds to increase considerably, perhaps
reaching Advisory criteria Sun Afternoon. This would also induce
strong warm advection. Record highs are certain in most areas. The
hot & windy weather on Sun will no doubt present major grassland
fire concerns. See "Fire Weather" section for details. As the
lower-deck trof develops, richer moisture would stream NE. In fact,
strong Theta-E advection that`ll target Southeast KS late tonight
is strong & should produce sufficient destabilization to `spark`
thunderstorms. MLCAPES are projected to reach 750-1000J/KG across
Southeast KS & although speed shear is lacking, directional shear
is not. As such, a few strong thunderstorms with small hail may
occur in Southeast KS late tonight & early Sun Morning.

Mon & Mon Night:
The broad eastward-moving mid-upper trof will drag a weak cold
front SE into KS late Sun Night & early Mon Morning. With the
front bisecting KS on Mon, the NW-SE temperature gradient will be
sharp. In fact, record highs are possible in Southeast KS where
highs are likely to reach the lower 80s, while highs in Central
KS should reach the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

After a dry Mon, a broad, weak inverted ridge will venture across
the Northern Plains which would induce lower-deck flow to become
easterly. Isentropic ascent is feeble & as such only light rain
would occur late Mon Night & Tue (primarily in the morning) by
which time the SE-moving high would increase its influence. The
chances for showers & embedded thunderstorms increases as the week
progresses as a deepening upper-deck trof digs across the Great
Basin Wed Night & Thu. Lift doesn`t really increase until Wed
Night when the upper-deck trof is scheduled to cross AZ & NM. As
such the best chances of thunderstorms would occur late Wed Night
& Thu. The end of the work-week is appearing more ominous as a
deep upper-trof will induce pronounced lift as it moves east into
the Southern Plains on Fri. Severe thunderstorms now appear
possible, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through 06Z tonight. A warm front is
expected to lift northward through central/eastern Kansas late
tonight through midday Sunday. MVFR stratus will likely develop as
the warm front is lifting slowly through the area late tonight
into Sunday morning, before shifting northeast out of the area at
the end of the forecast valid period. There is a chance for IFR
ceilings in central/south-central KS early Sunday morning, but not
as confident in this range at this time. A developing south-
southwesterly low-level jet may aide in producing marginal low-
level wind shear at the terminals in central/south-central KS late
tonight. In addition, isentropic lift and moisture transport from
the low-level jet may contribute to scattered elevated
thunderstorms over southeast KS in the 09-14 UTC time-frame which
may impact the CNU terminal. Have placed a VCTS there to
accommodate this convection potential based on coverage
expectations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

The Grassland Fire Danger will become a tremendous concern on Sun
for the increasing S-SW winds coupled with a deepening dry airmass
would produce hot & windy weather across KS. The greatest culprit
would be S-SW winds from 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 mph
that`ll produce an Extreme Grassland Fire Danger in most of
Central & South-Central KS Sun Afternoon with a Very High
Grassland fire danger for the rest of the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Record Highs for March 19th:

Wichita: 91 In 1907
Russell: 83 In 1972*
Salina:  86 In 1907*
Chanute: 83 In 1995*

*Denotes record high will likely be set.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      71  54  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          70  54  86  55 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        71  54  86  56 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   73  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         72  50  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      73  52  89  48 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          69  51  88  52 /   0   0  10   0
McPherson       70  53  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     72  52  84  60 /   0  20  10   0
Chanute         70  50  84  58 /   0  30  20   0
Iola            69  49  83  58 /   0  30  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  51  83  59 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...EPS
CLIMATE...EPS



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