Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 270218
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
918 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Despite a few tweaks to the forecast, overall thinking remains the
same. Thinking eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas
thunderstorms will gradually congeal into a thunderstorm complex
and affect central and north-central Kansas after midnight, given
continued moist/unstable southeasterly low-level flow along with
increasing large scale ascent from shortwave energy approaching
over the Rockies. Ample instability and effective deep layer shear
will support isolated occurrences of severe hail/wind, along with
locally heavy rainfall rates. This activity should tend to weaken
with eastward extent (east of I-135). Attention then turns to the
potential for a second thunderstorm complex to progress out of
Nebraska and into northern/central Kansas late tonight into early
Saturday morning, as the main cold frontal zone ahead of the
shortwave approaches from the northwest. Given the increasingly
unstable airmass, this activity has a decent chance of being
strong/severe across the eastern half of Kansas. If this
secondary thunderstorm complex develops a massive cold pool, it
would probably act to speed up the effective cold frontal zone,
which may reduce afternoon severe chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Tonight-Saturday:

Potential for high impact storms is main focus. Three different
scenarios possible. First is GFS/NAM camp focusing convection
across Central KS tonight and then Saturday afternoon development
in Southeast KS on the surface front. Second is all HRRR runs
today and 0000 UTC ECMWF which have a more southern track with
Western KS storms rolling east overnight into area around daybreak
and then remnant MCV/MCS dropping into Central KS from Western
Nebraska. The HRRR/ECMWF solution would result in a much earlier
severe weather threat on Saturday that would include entire area
along/south of highway 400. This early threat would be mainly
wind, with potential to go upscale during the morning as storms
move into increasingly moist airmass. Northern outflow would
impact storms moving south from Nebraska. If the NAM/GFS scenario
plays out, threat would more likely include supercells with storms
going up on front. Finally, the 1200 UTC ECMWF has a slightly
different take, with Western KS storms dissipating very late
tonight about the time they reach ICT. The Western Nebraska storms
remain strong-severe overnight diving southeast across the
forecast area early in the day and into SW MO in the afternoon.
This scenario is not that far fetched either given 1200 UTC upper
air plot showing axis of higher 850MB dewpoint from TOP to LZK.
The main threat from this would be high winds. At this point, have
leaned official forecast toward the HRRR/ECMWF solution, although
hedging with slightly higher pops in Central KS to account for
storms moving in from Nebraska. Plan to broadbrush the hazardous
weather outlook to account for the various sceneries. -Howerton

Sunday-Monday:
Sunday will feature mild temperatures and dry weather as high
pressure builds over the area. Another weak front moves into the
area Monday afternoon. Anticipate airmass will be too dry for
storms, but latest GFS/ECMWF dribble out spotty patches of a
hundredth or two of QPF Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Broad trough across the Central US and baroclinic zone in the
plains spells trouble for forecasters. Timing of weak ripples in
northwest flow and location of boundary is notoriously difficult.
Storms likely over the high plains tracking southeast during the
night and not a whole lot of consistency with these smaller scale
features. Precipitation chances will likely increase through time
as low level moisture increases. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 724 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms after
midnight through Saturday. Thinking the highest confidence
scenario is activity reaching central Kansas around midnight,
with another round possible later tonight into Saturday morning
central/north-central and northeast Kansas. Will likely be making
amendments as the evening progresses watching radar trends.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  83  58  80 /  20  20  10   0
Hutchinson      62  81  56  79 /  30  20  10   0
Newton          63  81  56  78 /  30  20  10   0
ElDorado        64  83  58  79 /  20  30  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  87  59  80 /  10  30  20   0
Russell         60  75  53  78 /  40  40  10   0
Great Bend      60  77  53  78 /  40  30  10   0
Salina          63  79  56  80 /  40  30  10   0
McPherson       62  80  55  78 /  40  20  10   0
Coffeyville     67  87  61  79 /  10  50  40  10
Chanute         66  84  60  79 /  10  50  30  10
Iola            65  83  59  79 /  10  50  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    67  86  61  79 /  10  50  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK



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