Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201144
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A sagging cold front across central KS early this morning is progged
to become stationary along and east of the Kansas Turnpike this
afternoon. A rogue storm or two may overcome the cap in the
vicinity of the front after 22-23Z across mainly southeast KS. If
a storm can develop we may see a severe updraft or two given
robust MLCAPE and relatively steep H7-H5 lapse rates although the
deep layer shear (speed & directional) will be more marginal.
Better chances may come during the evening hours, especially north
and east of our forecast area as moisture transport increases.

Thu-Fri...The pattern will change very little across the central
Conus through the end of the week as a deep mid/upper trough
builds slowly over the central Great Basin area and a mid/upper
ridge amplifies across the Middle Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes area. This will allow southwest mid/upper flow to prevail
through the period with continued hot, dry and windy conditions
across the central Plains states.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Hot and dry weather conditions will prevail at the beginning of
the period before the large trough across the Central Great Basin
area propagates eastward bringing increasing chances for showers
and storms to the central Plains states as we move into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The main concern
today will be a cold front (currently located from KMHK to KHUT)
pushing its way into south central Kansas this afternoon.  Latest
short range models have this frontal boundary stalling along the KS
Turnpike for the afternoon and evening hours.  Most of central KS
will see a wind shift to the northwest and eventually to the NE
behind the front, with S-SW winds ahead of the front for the KCNU
taf. There is a very slight chance of an isolated TSRA possibly
developing along or just ahead of the front, across the Flint Hills,
which may impact the KCNU taf for the evening hours.  But the
isolated nature will preclude mentioning this in the taf at this
time.

Frontal boundary will "wash out" or lift back to the north by Thu
morning.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      89  69  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
Newton          90  72  92  71 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        90  75  91  72 /  20  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   92  75  92  72 /  10  20  10  10
Russell         84  59  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      85  60  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          89  69  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
McPherson       88  68  93  71 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     92  74  91  72 /  10  20  10  10
Chanute         91  74  91  71 /  20  20  10  10
Iola            90  73  90  70 /  20  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    91  74  91  72 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham


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