Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291132
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH A DECREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS MOST LIKELY
LIMITING WARMUP IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOME RAIN TO EVAPORATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

SAT-SUN:
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY KEEP
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION GOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS ON
SAT...AIDED BY HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE REST OF
THE AREA APPEARS DRY THROUGH SAT EVENING. INCREASE IN 700MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL KS STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN IN CENTRAL KS AND
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN FLINT HILLS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE
SUN AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN ON THE LOW
SIDE OF OPTIMAL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WILL HIT THIS A BIT HARDER IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD ANTICIPATE MCS TO
ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

APPEARS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTH ON THU
ASSUMING LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT. IF SO...THIS BECOMES VERY
PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT WOULD
ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ALONG/NORTH
OF FRONT. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK RECORD OF LATE...WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH WED WITH TEMPERATURES SHADED JUST A
BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WARMER IN THE SOUTH. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. TRANSIENT
MVFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE VFR
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. WSW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  67  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  91  70 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          87  66  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        90  66  90  69 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  67  91  70 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         88  64  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  63  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          91  65  91  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       89  64  91  70 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  69  91  70 /  60  50  20  20
CHANUTE         83  67  90  69 /  50  50  20  20
IOLA            82  67  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    82  68  90  70 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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