Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 052024
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY MINOR NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IN TO IOWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, BUT THIS WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN
PROVIDE A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE MOST. AS A MATTER OF FACT,
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALTER THE MSLP PATTERN SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE
INCREASED WESTERLY LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM, LEADING TO MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WE FOLLOWED THE WRF-ARW FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES AS IT HAS PERFORMED MUCH BETTER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS IN WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES OF LATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
CORRIDOR OF MID 60S SPREAD IN TO CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING GREAT BEND
AND HUTCH.

NWSDDC/UMSCHEID

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
TRANQUIL AND QUITE MILD. THE GENERAL TREND OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN THE GRIDS CONTINUES...WITH UPPER MID 60S TO LOWER 70S LITTERING
THE MAXT GRIDS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (MID NEXT
WEEK). UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE OR
TWO RIPPLING THROUGH THE NONDESCRIPT LONGWAVE PATTERN DEVOID OF MUCH
MOMENTUM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY WEAK MSLP FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAY
7, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A MINOR SOUTHERN STREAM
PERTURBATION CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY.

NWSDDC/UMSCHEID

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WINDS WILL BE SOME VARIATION OF SOUTH
THROUGH WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 12 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR BRIEFLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM HUT TO SLN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

NWSDDC/UMSCHEID


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    22  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      23  58  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          22  56  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        22  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   22  54  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         24  63  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  62  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          24  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       23  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     22  49  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         22  49  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            21  49  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    21  49  28  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.