Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201807
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
107 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Proximity to the right entrance region of the upper jet moving
across the corn belt to out north will provide lift to support
elevated convection across southeast Kansas thru the morning
and perhaps light showers/sprinkles in south central Kansas.
Otherwise, a much cooler, near seasonable airmass will advect
south across Kansas today as a weak surface ridge builds into the
area. However, only a brief respite in precip chances is expected
across the area, before the next upper trof approaches from the
western CONUS tonight. Moisture transport in the isentropic lift
regime ahead of the developing upper low will get the rainy and
occasionally stormy pattern going on Friday with temperatures
well below climo. Stronger winds and diffluent flow aloft will
overspread southeast Kansas by the afternoon where modest
elevated instability should be present, supporting a few strong
to marginally severe storms. While this will also lend to locally
heavy rainfall in southeast Kansas, the GFS also shows an
impressive area of frontogenesis and 850-700 mb moisture
convergence a bit further north closer the mid/upper level low,
from central into east central Kansas Friday afternoon into the
early evening. This could focus another area of heavier rainfall.
If confidence increases on this scenario, a slight northwest
expansion of the Flood Watch may be needed. For now, confidence
was high enough to add 3 additional counties in southeast Kansas.
The low will move east into Missouri by Saturday with precip
chances diminishing from west to east across the area. Clearing
skies and much cooler by Saturday night with patchy frost possible
in central Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The weekend will end on a dry and seasonably mild note for Sunday
with transient ridging at the surface and aloft across Kansas.
While confidence is high for dry and warmer weather on Monday, the
rather zonal cross Pacific flow into mid-week leads to various
outcomes on the handling of amplification of perturbations in the
mean flow aloft across the central CONUS. However beyond the seven
day period, there seems to be better agreement in larger scale
amplification of an upper trof across the western CONUS late next
week. So for now, have only made a slight timing adjustment of
modest precip chances Tuesday night into Wednesday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the Southern Plains
through Friday. An upper level storm system will approach
Kansas/Oklahoma from the Rockies, later Tonight through Friday.
Isentropic lift and elevated moisture transport to the north of
the stalled front, should contribute to clusters of showers and
isolated storms late tonight into Friday morning in the southern
and far western part of Kansas. MVFR ceilings are expected to
accompany the increased rain chances in the south Friday morning,
augmented by easterly boundary layer winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  50  56  44 /  20  40  80  70
Hutchinson      69  48  55  42 /  10  30  80  70
Newton          67  48  55  43 /  10  30  80  80
ElDorado        68  50  56  43 /  30  40  80  80
Winfield-KWLD   68  51  57  44 /  50  70  80  70
Russell         71  47  54  41 /   0  20  80  60
Great Bend      70  47  53  40 /   0  20  80  60
Salina          69  48  56  43 /   0  10  80  80
McPherson       67  47  55  42 /  10  20  80  80
Coffeyville     68  53  59  46 /  60  70  90  80
Chanute         68  50  57  44 /  60  40  80  90
Iola            68  50  57  44 /  50  30  80  90
Parsons-KPPF    68  52  58  45 /  60  60  90  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Saturday morning
for KSZ069>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC


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