Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KICT 201139
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

A cold front was draped across southeast Kansas and extended
northeastward up into the Great Lakes Region and southeast into
Oklahoma this morning. Showers and thunderstorms have diminished
in intensity and coverage this morning across much of Kansas and
Missouri. Also, as a strong area of high pressure continued to
drop southward across the Northern Rockies, the pressure gradient
has increased across Western and portions of Central Kansas
resulting in gusty northerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

We will begin to dry out this weekend and a cooler, dry post
frontal air mass traverses the region bringing below normal
temperatures and a break from the heat.

This morning, with the frontal boundary lingering across
southeast Kansas a few showers may linger through the early to
possibly mid-morning hours. Throughout the afternoon hours, as
the continental air advects into the region expect clouds to
gradually clear from west to east across the area. The combination
of cold air advection and lingering cloud cover will allow
temperatures to only climb into the 70s, approximately 10-15
degrees below normal for this time of year. Accompanying these
cooler temperatures will be breezy northerly winds as the pressure
gradient holds strong through the early to mid-afternoon. Towards
the evening and overnight hours as high pressure moves overhead
winds will decrease and skies will clear, making for a pleasant
evening with low temperatures dropping into the 50s!

Sunday into Monday, temperatures will begin to warm up into the
mid to upper 80s as high pressure gradually shifts east of the
region and southerly flow returns along with warming 850mb
temperatures. Expect the dry weather to persist through the
beginning of the work week. By Monday as the a strong pressure
gradient develops across the Central Plains, strong and gusty
southerly winds will develop and begin to usher low-level moisture
back northward ahead of lee troughing. By Monday night into
Tuesday, there is a slight chances for showers and storms,
primarily along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. However, there is
still quite a bit of disagreement amongst the GFS and ECMWF, so
have opted to decrease PoPs a bit for right now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

The middle of the work week looks to be active with the arrival
of yet another cold front. The timing of this frontal passage and
track of the parent low pressure system will have a direct impact
on temperatures and the timing of precipitation. With the GFS
taking a more northern route than the ECMWF, there is some
uncertainty as to how warm temperatures will climb and what areas
will have the highest potential of another round of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms during the middle portions of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Post frontal MVFR to IFR cigs continue to push south across southern
KS at this time.  Expect drier surface air to continue to push
south across the forecast area this morning, which will end the
MVFR/IFR cigs in the next few hours as low clouds get scoured out.
Will keep a tempo group for the lower cigs going for KICT and KCNU.

After the low cigs end, expect VFR conditions to return to all TAF
sites, with cooler northerly winds dominating the forecast.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    78  57  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      77  55  85  61 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          76  56  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        77  55  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   79  57  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         77  54  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      77  53  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          78  55  83  62 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       77  55  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     81  56  85  60 /  20   0   0   0
Chanute         79  55  83  59 /  20   0   0   0
Iola            79  54  83  60 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    80  55  84  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...BDK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.