Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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860
FXUS63 KICT 151747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER
NEW MEXICO APPROACHING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN MOVING NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FOR MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE DRY LINE...COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A
LOW POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM AFFECTING CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE
COASTLINE OF CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS
AND EJECT EASTWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO NEW MEXICO...AND OUT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
DEFINITELY GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOKS TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET SETS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WOULD HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY BUILD UP ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH COOLER 700MB
TEMPERATURES THERE WONT BE MUCH OF A CAP ALOFT...THUS ALLOWING
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP EARLY AND OFTEN. THIS WOULD TOSS A WRENCH INTO
THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP ON SATURDAY...SHEAR ALOFT IS NO DOUBT
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS THE MAIN QUESTION LIES WITH RECOVERY
OF INSTABILITY. THE STORMS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE WARM
FRONT AND BRINGING DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO KANSAS ONCE
AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
CURRENT DECK OF ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS ERODES IN THE EAST. LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE I135 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR TRW LATE THIS
EVENING AND TIL AROUND 08Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE
VICINITY OF A DRY LINE IN WESTERN KANSAS AND PROPOGATE EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE I135 AREA. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO
USHER IN A DECK OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND PROPOGATE EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  65  76  62 /  60  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      81  64  77  60 /  60  30  60  50
NEWTON          80  64  75  62 /  60  30  60  60
ELDORADO        80  65  76  63 /  60  30  60  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  65  77  63 /  60  30  60  60
RUSSELL         82  64  77  55 /  10  40  60  50
GREAT BEND      83  64  76  54 /  10  40  60  50
SALINA          81  65  76  61 /  10  30  60  60
MCPHERSON       81  65  76  61 /  30  30  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     79  66  79  66 /  40  10  50  80
CHANUTE         79  66  79  65 /  30  10  50  80
IOLA            79  65  80  66 /  20  10  50  80
PARSONS-KPPF    79  66  79  65 /  30  10  50  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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