Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 191731
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1131 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Today:
Ridge axis will move across the forecast area during the day with
winds increasing/backing. Temperatures should rebound given
downslope component. Surface pressure gradient should keep winds
up a bit overnight, so lows should be slightly above normal.

Monday:
Good downslope flow anticipated with very dry air aloft and brisk
southwest flow. NAM/GFS/ECMWF 1000-850 millibar thicknesses and
850/925 millibar mixdown all supporting 70 or higher maximum
temperature at KRSL/KGBD and just shy of 70 at KICT. That said,
GFS high level moisture forecasts suggest batch of potentially
extensive cirrus moving in by midday and thickening in the
afternoon. This could keep maxes shy of full potential, but still
prefer to hedge warmer than initialization given the otherwise
classic set up for warmer than anticipated temperatures.

Monday night-Tuesday:
Front with cooler air will move through Monday night, but models
continue to show bulk of the colder air will be shunted east of
the area.  -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Medium range models remain in decent agreement with ridge to the
west leaving the area in northwest flow aloft. 1200 UTC ECMWF
showed a much more pronounced shortwave moving through northern
plains Friday night-Saturday than its 0000 UTC run, with 0000 UTC
ECMWF a bit closer to the 0000 UTC GFS. Both models show surface
reflection of said wave moving through late Friday/Friday night,
but with only modest change in temperatures. Model differences
could have some affect on temperatures but main concern is lack of
confidence in finer but critical details on temperature forecast.
That said, odds should favor dry and warmer than normal
temperatures. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period. Gusty
southwest winds will occur this afternoon and subside with sunset.
The gusty SW winds will once again occur on Monday with afternoon
mixing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Gusty winds this afternoon in Central KS will push GFDI values into
very high category. Winds will be even stronger on Monday, with
very high GFDI values over most of the area. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  36  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      60  35  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          58  36  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        58  37  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   59  37  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         61  33  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      61  34  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          61  35  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       60  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     58  36  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         57  36  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            56  36  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    57  36  62  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CWH
FIRE WEATHER...PJH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.