Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252043
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
243 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

Could see some patchy fog develop late tonight/early Saturday
morning across southeast Kansas with residual low-level moisture
combined with light winds and radiational cooling effects. Warmer
than normal temperatures will be in store for Kansas this weekend as
upper level ridging develops over the central plains. Meanwhile
current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave over
the eastern Pacific approaching the california coastline. This
system will move eastward across the Rockies and eject out into the
central plains on Sunday. Low clouds will expand and develop over
the area as gulf moisture streams northward ahead of this upper
level wave. Even though deeper adiabatic mixing will be hindered by
low clouds, tightening surface pressure gradient from surface
cyclone should give way to strong gusty south winds(possible wind
advisory) on Sunday. A line of scattered showers/embedded
thunderstorms look to develop and race eastward ahead of the upper
level wave for mainly Sunday afternoon/night. Dry and mild weather
expected on Monday with westerly down slope effects offsetting weak
cold advection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

Cooler seasonal temperatures and dry weather will be in store for
Kansas this period, as a deep meridional trough situated over the
central plains on Tuesday/Wednesday slides slowly eastward. Long
range models show a secondary push of cooler air possibly
affecting the region for late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Some of the
short term high-res models are suggesting some 3-5sm and fog over
SE KS for the 09-12z/Sat time frame, but surface winds shifting to
the SW Do not seem too conducive for fog formation. Also some
solutions suggest some possible IFR/LIFR cigs in SE KS as well,
but they look to be outliers. So prefer to keep things VFR and SKC
for now. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

The combination of dry air and increasing south winds will give
way to possible very high grassland fire danger levels for
Saturday afternoon over central Kansas. Meanwhile southerly winds
are expected to become even stronger on Sunday with gusts around
45 mph possible. This will give way to very high fire danger
levels across the entire region, with possible extreme fire danger
levels for Russell/Barton counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  62  46  61 /   0   0   0  50
Hutchinson      33  62  45  61 /   0   0   0  50
Newton          34  61  45  59 /   0   0   0  50
ElDorado        33  61  45  60 /   0   0   0  50
Winfield-KWLD   33  62  47  61 /   0   0   0  50
Russell         31  63  44  63 /   0   0   0  40
Great Bend      32  64  46  63 /   0   0   0  40
Salina          33  63  46  61 /   0   0   0  50
McPherson       32  62  45  60 /   0   0   0  50
Coffeyville     31  59  45  59 /   0   0   0  50
Chanute         30  59  44  58 /   0   0  10  50
Iola            31  58  44  58 /   0   0  10  50
Parsons-KPPF    31  59  45  59 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jakub
LONG TERM...Jakub
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...Jakub



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