Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 151827
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1227 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Exceptionally warm weather still slated for the CWA, as lower-mid
level flow quickly backs from Northerly to Southwesterly as broad
sfc ridge deamplifies as it gets pushed east by broad lower-deck
troffing spreading east across the Northern & Central Plains. The
onsetting westerly to southwesterly component dictated raising
today`s highs 3-4F in all areas. A split upper-deck regime, with a
strong upper-deck ridge spreading east across the Northern Plains
coupling with an equally deep trof moving slowly east across
Mexico, insures warmer weather will continue the rest of the work-
week. The southern stream upper-deck trof would induce sfc troffing
to assert itself to produce S-SW lower-deck flow across KS. Highs
both Thu & Fri would be about 10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Sat Night-Mon:
A deep cyclone moving slowly east from Baja CA along the Mexico/
AZ/NM border would induce pronounced troffing along the Front
Range. Markedly increasing moisture will surge N & NE into KS
which would greatly increase chances for showers & thunderstorms
across the region Sun Night. It still appears the greater
potential for strong & possibly severe thunderstorms would occur
across the Southern Plains where upper-deck diffluence is a bit
stronger. As the cyclone continues its trek east across the far
Southern Plains the lower-deck moisture channel & greatest lift
would shift slowly east. As such the showers & thunderstorms
would likewise shift east across Southeast KS Mon Afternoon &
Night.

Tue & Tue Night:
An intense cyclone scheduled to move east from Alberta to the
Manitoba/Ontario border will push a weak cold front SE across KS.
Lift & instability are greatly lacking & would inhibit
thunderstorm potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.  Winds will shift
from the southwest by early tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

With lower-deck flow quickly backing from northerly-southwesterly
the grassland fire danger will increase, especially on Thu as much
warmer air gets transported into KS on the strength of a much more
downslope regime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  35  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      58  35  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          56  36  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        56  36  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   57  35  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         60  34  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      59  34  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          58  36  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       57  35  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     56  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         55  34  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            54  35  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    55  34  67  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...27
FIRE WEATHER...EPS



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