Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010435
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
UT IS TEAMING WITH A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO THE GULF COAST FROM MS TO FL TO PLACE THE GREAT PLAINS
UNDER A PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES SE WY & CO TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
IS INDUCING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE PREVAILING W-SW 10-20 MPH LOWER-DECK FLOW HAS HELPED KICK
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100 IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH
LOWER-MID 90S RESIDING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRYING
TO PUSH INTO NE KS AT THIS TIME. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NW MO
WILL HELP REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AS ANY OUTFLOW PUSHES
WEST.  MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
12Z/WED. THIS MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR KSLN BY AROUND DAYBREAK AS LIFT
INCREASES IN THE MID LAYERS ALONG THIS SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY.

COULD SEE THIS TSRA CHANCE INCREASE SOME ALONG A KSLN TO KCNU LINE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ON WED.  CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE
THIS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS WED
AFTERNOON & WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
THE DAKOTAS...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA & IA...TO MO AS A 2ND MID-
UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS S/SE. THIS CHARACTER WOULD HAVE AMPLE FUEL
TO WORK WITH TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
DICTATES ~20% POP ASSIGNMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WED & WED NIGHT:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT SURGES S/SE THE
6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD INCREASE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES CONSIDERABLY
WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG LATE WED AFTERNOON.
WITH 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO ~35-40KTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT & WITH A COLD FRONT VENTURING INTO SOUTHEAST
KS THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD LIKEWISE GREATLY INCREASE. SUCH A
PROFILE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE
WED AFTERNOON & EVENING. SOUTHEAST KS MAY EXPECT A SEVERE TRIFECTA
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED)...DAMAGING WINDS & A COUPLE
TORNADOES LATE WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.

THU-FRI NIGHT:
CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING OF GREATEST OF GEREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE AT BEST AS LOWER-DECK FLOW IS WEAK & THIS IS
COMPOUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. AS SUCH HAVE 30-40% POPS
ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH MULTIPLE...ALBEIT WEAK...SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PERIODS. THE GREATEST CHANCES
APPEAR SLATED FROM MON-TUE WHEN THE STRONGEST UPPER-DECK TROF OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL UNDERGO INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS (PER ECMWF)
AS IT SURGES E ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MON. NEARLY ALL FACETS
OF THE FOFRECAST FOR THESE PERIODS HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY WED MORNING. ANY
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR INITIALLY
KSLN AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES.  WILL ALSO GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  72  92 /  10  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      75  98  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
NEWTON          75  97  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
ELDORADO        75  97  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 100  73  93 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         74  96  70  90 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      75  97  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          74  93  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       75  96  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
CHANUTE         73  94  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
IOLA            73  94  71  87 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  94  72  89 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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