Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180859
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Today-Sunday Night:
Forecast Highlight: Extreme Grassland Fire Danger likely in most
of Central & South-Central KS on Sun.

A STRONG upper-deck ridge that has been situated over the Rockies
during the night will move slowly east across the Northern &
Central Plains today & tonight, then across the Great Lakes &
Ontario on Sun where it`ll take on a positive tilt. With a broad
mid-upper trof moving east across Southern Canada, the mid-upper
flow would become zonal. The eastward-moving trof would induce a
sfc trof to develop across the Northwestern Plains tonight & drag
the sfc trof east into the Western Plains late tonight. A weak sfc
low should develop near the CO/KS border on Sun. The strengthening
sfc trof/low would team with strong high pressure covering the
Gulf Coast to induce S-SW winds to increase considerably, perhaps
reaching Advisory criteria Sun Afternoon. This would also induce
strong warm advection. Record highs are certain in most areas. The
hot & windy weather on Sun will no doubt present major grassland
fire concerns. See "Fire Weather" section for details. As the
lower-deck trof develops, richer moisture would stream NE. In fact,
strong Theta-E advection that`ll target Southeast KS late tonight
is strong & should produce sufficient destabilization to `spark`
thunderstorms. MLCAPES are projected to reach 750-1000J/KG across
Southeast KS & although speed shear is lacking, directional shear
is not. As such, a few strong thunderstorms with small hail may
occur in Southeast KS late tonight & early Sun Morning.

Mon & Mon Night:
The broad eastward-moving mid-upper trof will drag a weak cold
front SE into KS late Sun Night & early Mon Morning. With the
front bisecting KS on Mon, the NW-SE temperature gradient will be
sharp. In fact, record highs are possible in Southeast KS where
highs are likely to reach the lower 80s, while highs in Central
KS should reach the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

After a dry Mon, a broad, weak inverted ridge will venture across
the Northern Plains which would induce lower-deck flow to become
easterly. Isenstropic ascent is feeble & as such only light rain
would occur late Mon Night & Tue (primarily in the morning) by which
time the SE-moving high would increase its influence. The chances
for showers & embedded thunderstorms increases as the week
progresses as a deepening upper-deck trof digs across the Great
Basin Wed Night & Thu. Lift doesn`t really increase until Wed Night
when the upper-deck trof is scheduled to cross AZ & NM. As such the
best chances of thunderstorms would occur late Wed Night & Thu. The
end of the work-week is appearing more ominous as a deep upper-trof
will induce pronounced lift as it moves east into the Southern
Plains on Fri. Severe thunderstorms now appear possible, so stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Breezy southeast winds Saturday afternoon, especially west of
I-135. Expecting VFR clouds around 5000 ft AGL to increase from
the southwest Saturday afternoon and evening, in response to
increasing low-level moisture. Conditions will deteriorate to
MVFR or lower Saturday night.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

The Grassland Fire Danger will become a tremendous concern on Sun
for the increasing S-SW winds coupled with a deepening dry airmass
would produce hot & windy weather across KS. The greatest culprit
would be S-SW winds from 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 mph
that`ll produce an Extreme Grassland Fire Danger in most of
Central & South-Central KS Sun Afternoon with a Very High
Grassland fire danger for the rest of the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Record Highs for March 19th:

Wichita: 91 In 1907
Russell: 83 In 1972*
Salina:  86 In 1907*
Chanute: 83 In 1995*

*Denotes record high will likely be set.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      70  54  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          69  54  86  55 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        70  54  86  56 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         71  50  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      72  52  89  48 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          68  51  88  52 /   0   0  10   0
McPherson       69  53  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     71  52  84  60 /   0  20  10   0
Chanute         69  50  84  58 /   0  30  20   0
Iola            68  49  83  58 /   0  30  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  51  83  59 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...EPS
CLIMATE...EPS



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