Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 161748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE TEMPORAL FOG/ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MOIST
PBL/MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY (20%) OF THUNDER GOING FOR
THIS PM/EVE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AREA. WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE ON SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP OUR
FORECAST AREA DRY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MCS ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS PROGGED.

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS EARLY THIS
AM...COULD WRAP SOUTHWARD TO AROUND I-70 IN CENTRAL KS AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. WILL CARRY A FOG MENTION
THERE EARLY THIS AM. LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW...LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AM.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. FURTHER SLIGHT WARMING OF 1000-850
THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE HIGHS OF
95-100 BY MONDAY WITH A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT SETTING UP.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...REACHING THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES
(20-30%) OF STORM CHANCES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM 850 TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SUPPORTS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES (~5-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE)
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 22Z
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KCNU THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A MOIST
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL BE AFTER 09-10Z ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 14-15Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  72  96  71 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      96  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          95  71  95  70 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        95  71  94  70 /  20  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  72  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         95  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      95  69  95  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          95  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  73  94  71 /  30  30  10  10
CHANUTE         93  71  93  70 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            93  71  92  69 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    93  72  93  71 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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