Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221733
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE UPPER IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SCATTERED STORMS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A
MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY
ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ENCOMPASSES
THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUN.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME ISO-SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS IN AN AREA OF 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. CAPPING ABOVE 850MB SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
WITH JUST A FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. BY WED MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE TRACKING OVER THE ROCKIES AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS A
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE SETUP WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN NOT ONLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE...BUT ALSO OUT AHEAD OF IT AS MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
RAPIDLY INCREASES. IN ADDITION...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE WED EVENING. BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT A SQUALL LINE OR LARGE MCS WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE ALONG WITH GREAT UPPER JET DYNAMICS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM FROM LATE WED AFTERNOON/WED NIGHT. THE
QUICK TRANSITION OF THE STORM MODE TO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE WILL
REALLY LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.

ASIDE FROM THE STORM POTENTIAL ON WED...THERE IS A CHANCE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN THE
30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL BE EXITING SOUTHEAST KS THU MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY THU AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
DOESN`T LOOK TOO COLD WITH DOWNSLOPE AIDING TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

BY FRI AFTERNOON OUR NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ON SHORE OVER NORTHERN CA WITH THIS FEATURE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES
BY SAT MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE
SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT GOES
NEGATIVE TILT SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE
SAT NIGHT. WHILE MANY DETAILS STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT...IT
APPEARS LIKELY THERE WILL BE ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WOULDN`T BE
SHOCKED OF THIS TROUGH COMES OUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
IS FORECASTING GIVEN HOW MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLE
THESE SHARP TROUGHS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND UMKET SUPPORT THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
INCREASES...THERE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF KRSL AND KSLN AFTER
06Z/WED.  THINK THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR NOW.

THE BIGGER CONCERN EARLY ON WED WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 FOR WED MORNING. THINK SOUTHERLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GRADIENT COULD BEGIN GUSTING AS HIGH AS
35 KTS BY AS EARLY AS 14Z/WED IN CENTRAL KS FOR KRSL AND KSLN.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR BOTH TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY WED.

WIND ARE EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AND WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-135. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE 20S TO PRODUCE
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON WED WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EVEN
THOUGH RH`S WILL BE IN THE 40S...THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-135 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  54  82  57 /   0   0  10  60
HUTCHINSON      76  54  82  54 /   0  10  20  60
NEWTON          74  53  80  55 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        74  53  81  58 /   0   0  10  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  53  83  59 /   0   0  10  40
RUSSELL         78  55  83  46 /   0  30  40  70
GREAT BEND      78  55  83  47 /   0  20  40  70
SALINA          75  53  82  52 /   0  30  20  70
MCPHERSON       75  54  82  53 /   0  20  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     74  48  81  60 /   0   0  10  50
CHANUTE         71  48  80  59 /   0   0   0  60
IOLA            71  48  79  58 /   0   0   0  60
PARSONS-KPPF    74  48  80  59 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083.

&&

$$







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