Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 010545
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT FOR MAINLY ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KCNU/KSLN. POSSIBLE THAT KHUT/KICT MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FORECAST. STILL
TOUGH CALL ON SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS
ON WHEN/WHERE/STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KCNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
LOCATION/TIMING FOR TAFS...WITH CURRENT THINKING BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KRSL CLOSE TO/AFTER 00Z...WITH KICT/KHUT
POTENTIALLY NEAR DRYLINE WITH BRUNT OF STORMS GOING TO THE EAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  73  51  70 /  50  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      61  71  49  69 /  50  40  10   0
NEWTON          62  72  50  67 /  50  40  10   0
ELDORADO        63  74  51  70 /  60  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  75  51  70 /  50  30  10   0
RUSSELL         55  69  46  67 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      56  69  47  67 /  50  30  10   0
SALINA          60  70  49  67 /  60  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       61  71  49  67 /  50  40  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  77  52  70 /  60  70  20   0
CHANUTE         66  76  51  68 /  60  70  20   0
IOLA            66  75  51  68 /  60  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    66  77  51  69 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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