Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 050514
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT-THU:
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS BY 0000 UTC WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. APPEARS THAT CENTRAL KS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. WEAK FLOW ON THU WILL LIMIT WARMUP AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WEST...BUT
GIVEN COOL START/LIMITED MIXING...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A
RECOVERY EVEN IN THE FAR WEST. SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM MAY
SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED.

THU NIGHT-FRI:
RETURN FLOW SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES THU NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL ON FRI. WHILE SURFACE
WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...WINDS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SO RECOVERY SHOULD BE OPTIMIZED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.

SAT:
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY..BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW REACHING EVEN SOUTHEAST
KS...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY REACH THE 50S. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN LONGWAVE PATTERN AT START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH LINGERING AND QUASI-STATIONARY MIDLEVEL TOUGHINGEXTENDING
INTO THE 4 CORNERS. BY END OF THE PERIOD...ECMWF/GFS BOTH LIFT
SOME/MOST OF THE THIS TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DETAILS
AND IMPACT ON SURFACE FLOW ARE MUCH MORE FUZZY...BUT COMBO OF MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS FAVOR ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT 1200 UTC 925 MILLIBAR MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES
ARE 69 ECMWF/71 GFS FOR ICT. HAVE HEDGED A BIT WARMER THAN
INTIALIZATION BUT BELOW MODELS AT FACE VALUE BASED ON
INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW SOUTHWEST US ENERGY WILL EJECT...POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDS AND LESS THAN CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW. NEVERTHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR
MORE DAYS IN THE 70S THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT ON THU....WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY...DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    12  38  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON       8  39  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          12  37  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        11  37  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  39  23  51 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL          5  42  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND       7  42  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA           8  41  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON        8  39  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     14  33  21  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         12  32  20  47 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            11  31  20  47 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    12  32  20  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.