Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 301157
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
657 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The powerful slow-moving storm system will continue to progress
northeast across the region today. Areas of showers and a few
thunderstorms will progress northeast across the area early this
morning ahead of the ejecting trough. However, as stout mid- level
dry slot punches in from the south, thinking brunt of
precipitation will gradually become confined to generally the
western half of Kansas within broad mid- level deformation zone.
Cold air aloft underneath upper low along with continued upper
forcing should allow for scattered showers redeveloping across
eastern half of Kansas this afternoon, although the threat for
heavy convective rainfall is over. Periods of moderate-heavy snow
will persist over western Kansas within deformation zone, with
significant accumulations likely. Dynamic /wet-bulb cooling in
concert with some low-level cold advection should support a
rain/snow mix as far east as generally Russell- Barton counties.
Despite marginal surface temperatures, RAP/HRRR progged thermal
fields and intense lift suggest some slushy accumulations on
grassy surfaces are possible through this evening, possibly
reaching around 1-2 inches along/west of Russell to Great Bend.
Will also issue a wind advisory for Russell-Barton counties today
due to stout/gusty north winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Warmer, windy and sunny conditions are expected Monday, with
highs reaching the 60s. Deterministic models and GFS ensembles
continue to support rain chances increasing again late Tuesday
through Wednesday morning , especially over southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma, as a fast moving, deep trough approaches from
the northwest. Strong lift coupled with marginal instability could
promote a few strong storms, along with locally heavy rain.

Quiet spring weather is expected to return to the region Thursday
through the weekend, as model suite consensus builds an amplified
upper ridge across the western CONUS, eventually progressing it
east over Mid-America. Highs will gradually warm through the 60s
and into the 70s (possibly near 80 over the weekend) under mostly
sunny/clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Surface low will continue to develop across south-central Kansas
today, before lifting slowly northeast to northeast Kansas by
early this evening. A mix of rain/snow will occur on the northwest
side of the low in central Kansas, affecting the RSL and GBD
terminals. Scattered showers will be possible elsewhere in
central, south-central, and southeast Kansas Today into early this
evening. IFR ceilings will likely persist in central KS today
into tonight on the northwest side of the surface low track.
Ceilings may improve to MVFR/VFR in the southeast. Very strong
northerly winds gusting to 35-45 knots will occur at the RSL and
GBD terminals today into early this evening. Northwesterly winds
gusting to 30-40 knots can be expected this evening area-wide on
the backside of the departing surface low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  37  67  45 /  50  30   0   0
Hutchinson      42  36  66  43 /  70  40   0   0
Newton          45  37  65  44 /  70  40   0   0
ElDorado        46  38  66  44 /  50  30   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  38  68  45 /  40  20   0   0
Russell         36  34  61  41 / 100  60   0   0
Great Bend      36  33  62  41 / 100  50   0   0
Salina          43  37  65  44 /  90  60   0   0
McPherson       43  36  65  43 /  80  50   0   0
Coffeyville     53  41  67  46 /  50  20   0   0
Chanute         55  39  65  45 /  70  30   0   0
Iola            53  39  64  45 /  70  40  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    55  40  66  45 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-048.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC


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