Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 212005
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE ALL CONTINUED TO
SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN AN AREA ROUGHLY FROM HUTCHINSON TO
DODGE CITY. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS FAVORABLE AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED MUCH.

THE HRRR FORECASTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
ACCURATE AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK TODAYS WILL NOT BE. THAT
SAID...THE MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHILE TRENDING MORE TOWARD STORMS
REMAINING SOUTH AND BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE.

KEPT CONTINUITY IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE TAFS IS FROM 00Z-05Z. THIS TIMING IS MUCH EARLIER THAN
THE LAMP OUTPUT...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. THE LAMP OUTPUT
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE HRRR.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  20  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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