Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200354
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1054 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Main challenge is how many ways to say HOT! The upper ridge will
hold sway over the area through the end of the week with the low
levels continuing to gradually warm day over day. Diurnally gusty
south winds will continue as well, especially along/west of the
turnpike. Modified persistence still seems like the best approach
for maximum temperatures the next couple of days. The bigger
challenge comes on Saturday with the potential for a surface
trough and cold front to slide south into central Kansas. This is
in response to a stronger shortwave aloft progged to move from
south central Canada and Dakotas across the Upper Midwest/western
Great Lakes by Saturday night. At the same time, weak
perturbations within the monsoonal flow around the periphery of
the upper ridge may also interact with the southward sagging
surface boundary. Timing is everything and for now the NAM seems
the most aggressive in moving the front across central Kansas by
Saturday afternoon. If so, the heat relief could arrive a bit
sooner for locations along the I-70 corridor. That said,
compressional warming just ahead of the surface front, wherever
it may be Saturday afternoon, could make Saturday the hottest day
for some locales. Current heat indices are running either side of
105F in most locales and the forecast is similar for the next few
days, so we are inclined to upgrade all of the forecast area to
an Excessive Heat Warning and extend through Saturday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The aforementioned "cold front" is progged to drop south across
the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday as the upper trof
amplifies over the northeast CONUS. The front will also serve as a
focus for scattered convection, so some heat relief and precip is
in the offing to close out the weekend. It appears the upper
ridge will build over the area again by mid-week, so will trend
temperatures upward after the brief respite early next week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

A persistence forecast with VFR conditions is planned for the 06Z
TAFS. A lee trough will maintain a southerly wind, with diurnal
gusts in the afternoon/early evening hours, and decoupling toward
sunset. Marginal low-level wind shear is possible late tonight in
central Kansas with southwesterly winds around 40 knots at the top
of the low-level inversion around 1,500 ft agl. Mostly clear
skies should prevail through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76 102  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      76 103  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          77 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        76 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   76 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         75 104  76 105 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      75 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          78 106  79 107 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       77 103  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     74  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         74  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            74  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC



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