Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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181
FXUS63 KICT 210011
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
611 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast Highlight:
Record highs temperatures possible in most areas Wed Afternoon.

A very high amplitude pattern dominated most of North America
this afternoon, with a sharp longwave trof cutting from the
Manitoba/Ontario Border all the way to the Eastern Rio Grande,
while a ridge of K2 Mountain proportions punched from the AL/GA
border all the way to Hudson Bay. At 3 PM CST, a clearing line
extended from extreme Eastern SD, thru Eastern KS, to along I-35.
A sharp surface trof extended from the IA/Nebraska border, thru
KSLN & KHUT, to along & just east of the TX Panhandle. With such a
high-amplitude pattern the upper-deck trof will move slowly east
& will evolve into a cut-off low over LA/MS as it encounters the
afore-mentioned ridge Tue Afternoon. As the cut-off upper-deck low
drifts east along the Gulf Coast Tue & Tue Night, the downstream
ridge will deamplify, leaving nearly all of North America under a
fast zonal regime thru Wed Ngt. This would result in very warm &
dry weather for KICT Country with record high temps possible on
Wed. A broad upper-deck trof that should cross the West Coast Wed
Night will gradually strengthen as it crosses the Northern Rockies
Thu Morning. The approaching upper-deck trof will drag a weak cold
front southeast into KS Thu Morning. Some light rain is possible
in Central KS Thu Afternoon & Thu Night as isentropic ascent
gradually increases.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Fri & Fri Night:
The best chances for rain, that`ll change to light snow, would
occur Thu Night & early Fri as the Western U.S. upper-deck trof
undergoes pronounced cyclogenesis as it surges east/northeast
across the Great Plains. The best chances for light rain & light
snow should remain across Central KS as it appears the front may
stall before transitioning into a warm front as a vicious surface
cyclone surges east across the Mid-MS Valley.

Sat-Mon:
A fast zonal regime will dominate the plains for most periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Some patchy fog is possible along the surface trof axis as it
slowly migrates east across the Flint Hills into southeast Kansas
tonight. Confidence on areal extent of fog and stratus development
is not high, though have inserted MVFR category at KCNU.
Otherwise, generally clear skies across the rest of the area
tonight and Tuesday with light winds.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Good downslope flow from the West and Northwest will lead to very
dry conditions and well above normal temps for Tue/Wed.  Relative
humidity levels may fall into the upper teens both days across
Central KS, which will lead to an elevated fire danger, with very
high to possibly extreme grassland fire danger values expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Feb 22 Record Highs:

Wichita: 87 In 1996
Russell: 77 In 1982
Salina:  76 In 1982
Chanute: 80 In 1996

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    41  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      38  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          41  74  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        42  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         35  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      36  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          38  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       38  75  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     45  73  43  78 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         44  72  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            44  72  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    45  72  43  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...EPS
CLIMATE...EPS



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