Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 192259
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
559 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MIX OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
HIGHS REMAINED IN THE 70S...FURTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO
THE LOW 90S. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS
QUITE A CHANGE FROM A FEW DAYS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO DIG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AREA HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLE AND DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MAINTAINED MID POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
OVERNIGHT. LOWEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN
SOUTHEAST KS...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS MORE MIXY TONIGHT
THAN LAST NIGHT VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT
EXPECT DENSE FOG...BUT AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE CNU TERMINAL ONLY.

A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH I-70 TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD SATURDAY. THIS COULD SET OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING...BUT LIKELY JUST BEYOND 00Z/21ST.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  89  66  82 /  10  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      67  89  64  81 /  10  20  40  20
NEWTON          66  87  64  80 /  10  20  40  20
ELDORADO        67  88  65  81 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  66  84 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         67  89  59  79 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      66  88  62  80 /  10  20  40  10
SALINA          68  89  62  81 /  10  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       67  89  62  81 /  10  30  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  88  67  85 /  10  20  20  30
CHANUTE         66  88  65  83 /  10  20  30  20
IOLA            65  87  65  82 /  10  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    66  88  65  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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