000
FXUS63 KICT 141740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unseasonably warm through Wednesday. Near record high temperatures
  in the low 90s today. Below average temperatures late week through
  next weekend.

* Strong/gusty winds fueling very high to extreme grassfire danger
  across mainly central and south-central Kansas Monday and Tuesday.

* Thunderstorm chances and associated severe thunderstorm
  potential Monday evening-night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Near record high temperatures are expected today, with readings in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Today`s records are as follows: Wichita 93
in 1936, Salina 93 in 2002, and Russell 91 in 2002.

Late Monday`s severe weather potential still isn`t clear-cut. While
the overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment favors severe
thunderstorms, questions remain surrounding dryline placement, and
whether or not dryline convergence will even be enough to initiate
and sustain deep moist convection.

As is often the case with strong system`s like this, thinking the
GFS is mixing the dryline too far east, and am favoring the further
west solutions such as the NAM, ECMWF and several CAM solutions,
which place the dryline over the High Plains by Monday evening. This
will be the best place and time for discrete supercells and
associated higher-end impacts including very large hail and the
potential for a few tornadoes.

However, several model solutions depict rather meager dryline
convergence, probably due to better upper forcing lagging further
west of the region. Consequently, it`s unclear if dryline storms
will even be able to initiate during the late afternoon-evening,
with storms possibly not forming until closer to midnight or later,
when strong large-scale forcing and the associated Pacific front
plow east through Mid-America. This activity, however, will
probably tend to favor more of a messy and/or linear storm mode,
which would likely limit the higher-end severe threat (i.e.
limit the threat for very large hail and tornadoes).

In summary...if isolated to widely scattered dryline storms do
indeed form, locations generally along/west of Highway 14 would be
under the gun for higher-end severe weather Monday evening,
including very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. If
dryline storms don`t materialize, or remain west of the forecast
area, the primary threats would be damaging winds and marginal hail
from about midnight through early Tuesday morning along the surging
Pacific front. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the forecast
today and tonight.

Apart from the thunderstorm threat, anomalously strong/deep low
pressure will support stout/gusty south winds Monday afternoon-
night, with strong/gusty southwest-westerly winds Tuesday. Wind
advisories will likely eventually be needed, as gusts exceeding 45
mph are probable, especially Tuesday.

As we look ahead, deepening northern CONUS upper troughing and an
associated cold frontal passage will support a return to below
average temperatures Thursday-Thursday night and persisting through
next weekend. Daytime readings in the 50s-60s are likely, with
overnight lows in the 30s-40s. Portions of central and north-central
Kansas could be flirting with overnight temperatures in the low-mid
30s Thursday night through Saturday night...a heads up for those
with sensitive outdoor vegetation. Furthermore, could be looking at
periodic shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through
Thursday night, and then again Friday night-Saturday, as a pair of
mid-level baroclinic zones traverse Mid-America. Severe weather
appears unlikely with any of this activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail this evening into much of the
overnight. A plume of low level moisture will advect into the
area towards dawn Monday morning. Confidence remains high enough
for prevailing MVFR at CNU after 10Z. Introduced scattered MVFR
groups at ICT, HUT, and SLN for the increasing potential for
MVFR CIGS Monday morning. At this point, the best potential for
low CIGS look to remain east of GBD and RSL. Otherwise,
generally light and variable winds today will become
southeasterly by mid-morning Monday at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25
kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

For Monday and Tuesday, very high to extreme grassland fire danger
is probable across portions of central, north-central, and south-
central Kansas, due to continued well above average temperatures and
strong/gusty south to southwest winds. Monday`s threat should be
limited to Russell-Barton counties on west due to higher humidities
further east. Tuesday`s threat should be higher due to somewhat
lower humidities and somewhat stronger winds. A Red Flag warning may
be needed Tuesday, stay tuned.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...ADK