000
FXUS63 KICT 140544
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warming trend through Sunday

* Fire danger today, Monday, and Tuesday across central KS

* Confidence continues to increase for a severe weather event
  Monday evening/night, possibly significant

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As of 230pm this afternoon, midlevel ridging was building into the
southern and central Plains. A weak shortwave trough was rounding
the top of the ridge across southern NE. To this point, only cloud
cover has been observed with the feature. Given the very dry low
levels of the atmosphere, do not expect any precipitation this
afternoon or this evening. Otherwise, gusty south to southwest winds
up to 40 mph have ushered in much warmer temperatures in the 80s for
most locales.

The upward trend in temperature will continue Sunday as the midlevel
ridge overspreads the region. An even warmer afternoon is forecast
Sunday with highs nearing the 90 degree mark. The aforementioned
weak shortwave trough will shunt a weak surface trough axis into the
forecast area Sunday morning. This will push the tightest
pressure gradient southeast of the forecast area, giving a brief
reprieve from gusty winds.

All eyes continue to be drawn toward another potent midlevel trough
poised to eject into the Plains early next week. The latest suite of
deterministic and ensemble have further slowed with the speed max
progression late Monday afternoon into the evening. This may delay
convective initiation a bit with a stout capping inversion remaining
in place most of the afternoon. That being said, continued low-level
moisture advection should sharpen a dryline, somewhere between Garden
City and Pratt. As the evening progresses, a higher-end,
conditional, severe weather environment will develop with an
expansive zone of 300-500 m2/s2 effective storm relative helicity
east of the dryline. As mentioned in prior discussions, the latest
SREF, EPS, and GEFS members continue to produce the highest
probabilities for severe storm potential (possibly significant) for
areas along and west of Interstate 135, east of Highway 283, and
south of Interstate 70. Should a storm develop in this environment
after 7pm, all hazards will not only be possible but probable. This
includes very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. As the
night progresses, increased large scale ascent should result in more
widespread convection along the Pacific front/dryline. The primary
concern with the late night activity will be damaging wind.  We
encourage you to continue to check back throughout the weekend for
additional detail and forecast refinements.

Beyond Monday, the Pacific front will sweep across the forecast area
early Tuesday, likely setting the stage for additional storms just
east of the area. Midlevel ridging will build across the southwest
US through midweek with northwesterly flow across the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Low level wind shear for the next few hours in eastern Kansas
is the only concern for this forecast with the enhanced low
level jet. South southwest winds should continue to diminish and
will gradually shift around through the forecast period as high
pressure moves in; this directional change is the primary
driver for the number of lines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today: Very high to extreme fire danger will continue along and west
of I-135 this afternoon. Southerly winds sustained between 20-30 mph
with gusts near 40 mph have overlapped with humidity values in the 15-
25 percent range. Conditions will improve this evening with
increasing humidity and decreasing wind speeds.

Monday and Tuesday: A period of very high to extreme fire danger is
expected as gusty south winds up to 35 mph overlap afternoon
humidity values in the 15-25 percent range each afternoon. As
previously mentioned, the area of most concern will remain west of I-
135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...ADK