Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
103
FXUS63 KICT 241151
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
651 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Forecast Highlight:
Sever thunderstorm potential increasing for much of South-Central
KS along & W of I-35/I-135 late this afternoon & Evening.

Today & Tonight:
Numerous strong & severe thunderstorms continue to occur across Nrn
KS in pronounced E/W-oriented convergent axis no doubt enhanced by
moisture-rich low-level jet/convective outflow interaction. Still
expect convection to s-l-o-w-l-y wane this morning as low-level jet
weakens. Attention shifts to this afternoon & evening, most notably
South-Central KS along & W of I-35/I-135. A mid-level shortwave is
still expected to strengthen considerably as it lifts ne from Ern
NM across the TX Panhandle this afternoon and reaching SW KS early
this evening. With high octane fuel continuing to stream N across
KS & the approaching shortwave inducing pronounced deep shear, both
speed & directional (more so directional) severe thunderstorms are
scheduled to develop from Ern parts of the TX & OK Panhandles to SW
& SC KS late this afternoon & evening. SPC has assigned an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas which clearly makes
sense. CAPES are extremely high & although the GFS may be getting a
a CAPE adrenaline rush by projecting MLCAPES venturing into 5000
to 6000J/KG country there`s no doubt the airmass will be VERY
unstable. This warrants a "Severe Thunderstorms with Large Hail
and Damaging Wind" assignment to SC KS along & W of I-35/I-135.
There`s also an increasing potential for a few tornadoes for these
areas during these periods. Stay tuned.

Wed-Thu Night:
The afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave will shear as it sprints NE
toward, then across, the Mid-MS Valley Wed Afternoon & Evening, but
a 2nd & stronger mid-upper shortwave is scheduled to surge SE from
the Nrn Rockies. This character will likely induce mid-level
cyclogenesis over AZ & NM Wed Night. As the strong mid-upper wave
pushes ENE toward the Front Range deep-scale ascent will increase
& also find rich moisture with which to interact. As such more
severe thunderstorms are very possible for the latter parts of the
work-week. Wed & Wed Night appear most volatile for SE KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

With mid-range models in better agreement the inherited forecast
has been kept intact.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Expect MVFR CIGS for most locations this morning as low-mid level
moisture remains high. A cluster of storms currently over Central KS
near the KRSL and KSLN tafs will slowly move E-SE during the morning
hours.  So will go with a tempo group for the KSLN TAF for this
chance. Also a little further to the south-southeast, an outflow
boundary continues to drop south into South Central KS. This outflow
will shift winds around to the E-NE for the KHUT, and KICT TAFS for
a few hours this morning. As the outflow moves south, lift created
by the outflow may lead to the redevelopment of additional SHRA/TSRA
for the KICT, KHUT and KCNU TAFs.  So will keep a VCTS in for this
chance for the morning hours.

Attention will then shift to the late afternoon/evening hours, as a
dryline is expected to be just west of KGBD and KRSL. Severe TSRA is
expected to develop along this boundary just to the west of KGBD and
KRSL by this evening. Could also see some of the TSRA move NE and
possibly reach KHUT as well, so will include the mention of VCTS for
KGBD, KRSL and KHUT for the evening hours.  Not as confident in TSRA
but will go ahead and go with a VCTs for KICT as well.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  68  86  69 /  60  60  10  10
Hutchinson      83  68  87  66 /  50  60  10  10
Newton          82  68  86  68 /  60  60  10  20
ElDorado        81  67  85  69 /  60  60  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   81  68  86  70 /  60  60  10  20
Russell         83  66  87  62 /  60  50  10  10
Great Bend      84  67  88  61 /  50  50  10  10
Salina          82  67  87  67 /  60  60  20  20
McPherson       82  68  86  66 /  50  60  10  10
Coffeyville     80  69  83  72 /  60  40  30  20
Chanute         81  68  82  72 /  60  40  30  30
Iola            81  68  82  72 /  60  40  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    81  68  83  72 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...Ketcham



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.