Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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