Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 272326
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A roller coaster of weather will be the highlight for central and
southeast Kansas over the next 7 days.

For late afternoon and tonight...A complex weather pattern is in
place over the eastern half of KS. A cold front is situated to the
north, a boundary is running parallel to the KS and OK border.
Storms will be possible across all areas early on this afternoon
with the chances moving east and south through the afternoon and
evening hours.

The highest probability for storms will be east of a salina to
Anthony line, while the greatest risk area for significant weather
being to the east of the KS turnpike. A large amount of
instability will be present east of the Flint Hills in southeast
Kansas late this afternoon with CAPE values running in the 5-6K
range and decent steep lapse rates. This means that there will be
a continued risk for all phases of hazardous weather through 9 to
10 pm time frame. Some lingering showers or storms may still occur
around midnight in the far southeast sections.

Sunday through Monday night...High pressure will remain in
control and tranquil weather will prevail.

Tuesday will bring about another chance for storms, however,
these storms look to remain non-severe or on the low end of severe
weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Typical May weather will ensue as a slew of weak upper
disturbances and weak fronts move through keeping storm chances in
the forecast almost every day during this period. At this time,
these storms do not look to serious or have a significant risk for
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Thinking thunderstorm
chances this evening will remain just south of the KS/OK border.
However, there are some hints from short-term guidance that a
cluster of showers/thunderstorms may progress east/southeast into
south-central Kansas after 10-11pm. Not sold on this scenario
coming to fruition, so left out of 00z TAFs for now. Will continue
to monitor through the evening though and issue timely amendments
if needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  81  56  84 /  10   0   0  10
Hutchinson      58  80  55  81 /  10   0   0  10
Newton          58  79  56  81 /  10   0   0  10
ElDorado        59  79  56  82 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   61  81  56  84 /  20   0   0  10
Russell         53  79  53  79 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      53  79  53  80 /  10   0   0  10
Salina          56  80  55  80 /  10   0   0  10
McPherson       57  79  55  80 /  10   0   0  10
Coffeyville     64  80  55  84 /  40  10   0  10
Chanute         62  80  55  83 /  30  10   0  20
Iola            61  80  55  82 /  20  10   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    63  80  55  84 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...ADK



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