Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301127
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD AS LARGE BUT WEAK LOWER-
DECK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WIND ARE PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30
IN CENTRAL KS TO AROUND 40 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
A WEAK LOWER-DECK TROF SETTLING S/SE SHOULD REACH CENTRAL KS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FORCE THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SE ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ENABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE KICT
NEIGHBORHOOD. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID 20S THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET BUT
TUE NIGHT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL RAIPDLY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS TO INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE ASSERTIVE...THUS
ENABLING GULF MOISTURE TO MIGRATE TOWARD KS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROF SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE ACROSS
KS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL FIND AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO INDUCE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NEBRASKA...IA AND MO TO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KS. WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TARGETING NE KS
THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD THEREFORE OCCUR OVER THE NE
CORRIDOR OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:
AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES S/SE ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
THEREFORE SHIFT S/SE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS WITH THE GREAT CHANCES
TARGETING SE KS WHERE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGER
AND HENCE THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WITH THE INITIAL
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCOOTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE FRONT WILL
DECELLERATE AND EVENTUALLY STALL IN AN E-W MANNER ACROSS OK. A
STRONGER MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TO INDUCE LOWER-DECK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
WESTERN RED RIVER. AS THE MID-UPPER DECK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS A 2ND COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP FROM SE
KS ACROSS OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A 2ND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GREATER CHANCES TARGETING SE KS WHERE MOIST LOWER-DECK
CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST.

REST OF THE WEEK:
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SE ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
ONSETTING S/SW LOWER DECK FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST TO KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY THE RANGELAND
FIRE DANGER WILL BE EVEN LOWER AS WEAK EASTERLY FLOW SPREADS
ACROSS KS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECELLERATING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  48  82  54 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  45  81  52 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          74  48  80  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        74  48  80  53 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  50  81  54 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         78  42  81  51 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      77  43  81  52 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          75  45  80  52 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  45  80  52 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     73  50  78  53 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         73  48  78  53 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            72  47  77  52 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  48  78  53 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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