Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232330
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
530 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Shortwave energy over the Pacific Northwest, will translate eastward
tonight, digging southeastward across the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley Friday into Friday night. Lee troughing will
strengthen overnight into Friday ahead of an approaching Pacific
cold front. Downslope southwesterly winds and a strong low-level
thermal ridge axis nosing from the southern High Plains into Kansas,
will promote near record to record warmth across the forecast area
Friday afternoon.

Slightly cooler, but still above normal, air will spread southward
into the forecast area behind the Pacific front, Friday night into
this weekend. Relatively light winds and mostly sunny skies will
make for pleasant weather Saturday and Sunday.

Overall forecast confidence through Sunday is high.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Medium range deterministic models continue to show large disparities
with the evolution and eastward progression of the next upper
trough, as it moves from the western states across the Plains early
to midweek. Therefore, forecast uncertainty increases especially in
the Tuesday to Thursday time-frame. Most operational models have had
a trend toward a southern branch closed low, with at least some
separation from the northern branch, with the ECMWF remaining the
slowest/deepest, and the GFS appearing too fast. Confidence is
high that Monday will feature much above normal to near record
high temperatures, with strong lee troughing, gusty south-
southwesterly winds, anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures, and
persistent dry conditions.

For Tuesday to Thursday, the forecast is more of a blend of the
EPS/GEFS means, with a gradual cooldown to closer to seasonal
temperatures. Will carry a small chance of light rain in south-
central/southeast Kansas late Tuesday into Wednesday for the above-
mentioned system, however, confidence in precipitation chances is
low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Aviation concerns expected to remain nil through the next 24
hours.

Upper zonal flow remains over the Rockies into the
central/northern Plains with lee troughing over the High Plains.
Some shortwave energy is expected to quickly move from the Pacific
Northwest to the northern Plains by Fri afternoon. This will allow
a cold front to push south across the area. This feature is
expected to move through KRSL around 21z and not until after 00z
for KICT. With dry airmass in place, no precip or anything more
than high/mid clouds are expected with the front. .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Lee troughing, breezy southwesterly winds, near record warmth, and
persistent dry conditions will yield very high grassland fire danger
in southeast Kansas, and north central Kansas Friday afternoon.

Next Monday`s pattern setup is similar to tomorrow`s, but could be
more elevated with grassland fire danger. Strong lee troughing ahead
of an upper level storm system in the southwestern states, gusty
southwesterly winds, and near record warmth is expected to yield
very high grassland fire danger across the entire area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Record highs on Fri Nov 24...
CNU 74 in 1919
ICT 70 in 1915
RSL 75 in 1990
SLN 75 in 1990

Record highs on Mon Nov 27...
CNU 75 in 1960
ICT 72 in 1933
RSL 71 in 1949
SLN 73 in 1933

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  76  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      44  78  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          44  76  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        44  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  75  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         44  76  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      45  78  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          46  77  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       45  78  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     40  70  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         41  70  40  60 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            41  71  40  60 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    41  69  41  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JMC
CLIMATE...JMC



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