Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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618 FXUS63 KICT 101904 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 204 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet with seasonal temperatures continue through Saturday - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday morning into next week -- best chances Sunday into Monday - Severe weather is not expected over the next 7 days && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 As of 2 PM, a shortwave, midlevel ridge axis was sliding across the central and southern Plains. An associated surface ridge axis extended from eastern CO through northeast OK. This ridge axis has resulted in light northerly winds across the forecast and should continue to be the case overnight. Benign weather will continue over the next 24-36 hours across the state. Temperatures will remain seasonal for early to mid-May standards in the 70s to near 80. The next chance (80-100%) for showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday into Monday as a decaying midlevel low slowly moves across the central Plains. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest PW values will increase to near 1" by Sunday morning, which should support moderate rain at times. Latest NBM probabilities reveal the entire forecast area has a greater than 70% chance for receiving at least 0.50" from Sunday through Monday night. Midlevel ridging will slide into the central US Tuesday, briefly ending rain chances. The next midlevel shortwave trough approaches the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing rain chances back to the area. Again, an overlap of shear and instability appears unlikely which should keep the severe thunderstorm potential low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Few fair weather diurnal cumulus this afternoon otherwise VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period with light winds generally 10 mph or less. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...KED