000
FXUS63 KICT 221920
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
220 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance of storms late tonight into early Tuesday morning for
  portions of central and southeast Kansas.

- An active pattern with severe weather possible Thursday
  through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A progressive westerly mid/upper flow was present over the central
CONUS early this afternoon while one shortwave trough was moving
eastward across the Northern Plains and the mid/upper ridge axis was
confined to the Southwest. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak cold
front was bisecting Nebraska extending southwestward across the
Central High Plains.

This frontal boundary is progged to progress south and eastward
slowly tonight while being situated across Kansas early on Tue
before finally progressing south and east across the area on Tuesday
afternoon. A nocturnal LLJ is progged to develop from the
Southern High Plains NNE into central and northeast Kansas this
evening allowing low level moisture to gradually increase. We
may see a few showers/isolated storms along the nose of the LLJ
with higher probabilities north and east of our forecast area
but some low pops were maintained. Point soundings suggest
prefrontal areas in southeast KS will remain capped early on
Tuesday as the frontal boundary arrives although some low pops
were maintained. Normal highs for late April are around 70, so
most locations will see above average values on Tue.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated early on Wed as the warm
front is progged to be situated across central Oklahoma. Some low
pops were maintained across mainly southern Kansas where some
mid- lvl warm air advection is progged to linger although higher
probabilities will remain further south. Seasonable
temperatures will persist with highs around 70 for most
locations. Precipitation chances may begin to expand northward
Wed night into early Thu as the warm front begins to lift
northward towards the area, especially early on Thu. The NBM
pops look a bit high with such limited H85 flow beneath the
influence of the mid/upper ridging across the area. Seasonable
temperatures are progged to persist with highs in the lower 70s.
A round of severe storms will remain possible on Thursday as
low level moisture expands northward over the area and a
shortwave trough approaches late in the period. The environment
appears favorable for supercell storms with the initial
development along the dryline over southwest Kansas. As storms
propagate eastward on Thursday night it`ll be hard to rule out
some severe storms across the area given the buoyancy/shear
progs. Areas along and west of I-135 look best on Thursday while
the moisture will be shunted eastward on Fri. This may support
another round of severe storms for mainly southeast KS on
Friday.

As we move into the weekend another robust mid/upper trough is
progged to emerge negatively tilted from the Southern Rockies late
in the period on Sat. Sfc cyclogenesis over the Central High Plains
will allow low level moisture to rapidly return to the area bringing
another round of severe storms to the area on Saturday. The
meridional nature of the upper jet and orientation of the deeper
layer shear vectors in relationship to the dryline orientation may
support more linear structures on Sat-Sat night. Some modest pops
were maintained across the area on Sunday as the mid/upper trough
moves over the area and the deformation zone wraps into central KS
later in the day. Temperatures are progged to remain mild in it`s
wake with highs in the 70s persisting across the area on
Sunday. Dry and mild weather conditions are expected early in
the week as mid/upper ridging is progged to return to the
central CONUS

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Very strong south winds will affect the region today especially
across central and south central Kansas. Winds will decrease
just before sunset with some high clouds floating overhead.
Meanwhile a frontal boundary will push southward for late
tonight across central Kansas and reach southern Kansas Tuesday
afternoon. This will cause the winds to switch to the north
behind the frontal passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Gusty southwest winds and relatively dry air will support very
high grassland fire danger across portions of central and south
central Kansas through early this evening.

On Friday, a dryline will usher in much drier air and breezy
southwest winds into portions of central and south central
Kansas resulting in a very high grassland fire danger.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...MWM