Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131144
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Conditional risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
  through early tonight.

* A few hours of very high fire danger this afternoon mainly for
  portions of south central Kansas.

* Much cooler on Friday with temperatures averaging closer to
  seasonal climo this weekend thru Monday with dry weather
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Main challenge/concern is convective trends and severe potential
late today through early tonight. Strong upper jet diving south
across the far western conus will continue to carve out a deeper
upper trof/closed low over the Great Basin by this evening which
will eventually settle south across the Southwest conus on
Thursday. A lead shortwave and associated speed max aloft will
eject east-northeastward across the central/southern Plains by
early tonight. Strong low level moisture advection will occur in
concert with a northward migrating warm front across central and
eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, a dry-line (DL) is expected to mix
eastward to the south of the developing surface low as it moves
into south central Kansas later this afternoon/evening. The
GFS/RAP/HRRR show a much further eastward move of the DL into
the Flint Hills whereas the NAM hangs it back well west of ICT.
Even so, breaking the cap for surface based convection may be
difficult at peak heating. That said, MLCAPE values perhaps near
2000 j/kg in the presence of 35-40kts of deep layer shear will
be more than adequate for supercell storms. The somewhat more
plausible zone for severe convection will be along the warm
front across central Kansas early this evening. It`s position
is somewhat uncertain, though generally close/either side of the
I-70 corridor. Stronger forcing will arrive by mid-evening with
the approaching shortwave and in proximity to the left front
quad of the speed max. Any initial supercell storms which latch
on to and can traverse along the frontal boundary will have a
tornado risk besides a very large hail risk. Overnight cape
remains rather high at or above 2000 j/kg, especially along and
east of the Kansas turnpike with moisture advection to the east
of the retreating DL. This may support additional development
of elevated strong/severe storms which will pose mainly a hail
risk.

The cold front will merge and overtake the DL by Thursday
morning as it moves into southeast Kansas by early afternoon.
Depending on its movement, a risk for strong to severe storms
could linger across far southeast Kansas into late Thursday
afternoon/early evening, posing mainly a hail/wind risk.
Much cooler and drying out on Friday. The Southwest conus upper
low will become cut-off with Kansas being influenced by a
stronger northern stream upper trof evolving from the Great
Lakes across the eastern conus through early next week. This
will support dry weather and temperatures wavering just above
and below climo.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A warm front is currently situated across northern Oklahoma and
will push northward through the morning hours. This will result
in light and variable winds becoming southeasterly with time at
10-15 kt, gusting up to 25 kt, especially across south central
and southeast KS. In addition, short range models suggest a
potential for a brief period for MVFR to IFR CIGS along the
frontal zone. Given the lack of cloud cover along the frontal
currently, confidence is low for this scenario and have opted
for a few to scattered MVFR to IFR mention for now.

Furthermore, confidence remains low for convection impacting any
of the terminal sites and have not included any mention. A cold
front will being to sweep across central KS late tonight,
shifting winds to the north at 10-20 kt. Ahead of the front, a
stout LLJ of 45-50 kt will overspread southeast KS, increasing
the probability for LLWS conditions at CNU after 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Depending on the eastward movement of a dry-line a few hours of
very high grassland fire danger is possible this afternoon across
south central Kansas and a portion of the Flint Hills. Higher
confidence on a very high fire danger is closer to the Oklahoma
border in south central Kansas.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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