Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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831 FXUS63 KICT 062348 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 648 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather this afternoon through the evening. - A long stretch of fairly quiet weather expected later tonight through at least early weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Widespread clouds has so far hampered destabilization across the eastern half of KS. However, the airmass should quickly destabilize by mid to late afternoon from the west, as rich boundary layer moisture advects northward, with some breaks in low overcast likely generally west of the Flint Hills. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and mid-level cooling spreading eastward, this will all yield strong buoyancy moving in by mid-late afternoon (likely upwards of 2500- 3000 J/kg). The rich low-level moisture will also yield high amounts of buoyancy in the lower levels, an essential ingredient for tornadoes. Deep layer effective shear will also continue to increase, as a strong mid-upper level speed max approaches from the southwest. Low-level shear is also impressive, with 0-1km SRH increasing to 300-400 m2/s2 by late afternoon-early evening as the low-level jet increases. This thermodynamic and kinematic environment will favor supercells and embedded supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop/continue moving east-northeast up and down the dryline from western KS, south through western OK, as large-scale ascent continues to overspread the dryline. Given the stronger forcing and deep layer shear orientation more parallel to the dryline, activity should tend to form more of a line/broken line of storms with northward extent, likely limiting higher-end severe threat from roughly central KS on north. However, given the above mentioned environment, embedded supercell structures are likely within the line/broken line, capable of all severe hazards, including a few tornadoes. Further south across mainly southern KS and points southward through Oklahoma, the environment looks to become increasingly volatile for a more discrete supercell mode with southward extent, given somewhat weaker large-scale forcing, and deep layer shear orientation more perpendicular to the dryline. This region is also closer to the emerging intense mid-upper jet streak. It is in this region where ingredients should come together for some intense supercells, capable of very large hail and damaging winds, along with the threat for a handful of strong & long-track tornadoes. This higher-end threat is most probable between roughly 4-10pm, and again from southern KS, south through Oklahoma. As we head into the evening hours, most CAM solutions congeal much of this activity into a line/broken line of intense thunderstorms from OK north-northeast through eastern KS. While the overall threat for higher-end severe weather should tend to wane with this activity, pockets of intense supercell structures and meso vortices are likely given the continued strong low-level shear and low-level buoyancy. This activity will pose a continued tornado threat, along with intense pockets of damaging winds and large hail. Please heed all warnings and take shelter when appropriate. Any tornadoes that develop this afternoon and evening will likely be difficult to see given low cloud bases, along with the potential for rain-wrapped circulations. Do not wait until you can see the tornado. If a tornado warning is issued for your location, please take shelter. Once tonight`s thunderstorm activity clears to the east, the synoptic pattern favors relatively quiet weather through at least early in the weekend. Chances for showers/thunderstorms may increase Sunday-Sunday night into next week, but it appears the potential for organized severe weather is low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Showers and thunderstorms, some of them severe will be possible for the first six hours of the TAF. The thunderstorm threat for KGBD and KRSL will end in the next couple of hours with KHUT, KSLN and KICT will likely end between 02Z and 05Z this evening. KCNU will likely continue with the thunderstorm threat until 08Z to 09Z tonight. Chances for any one terminal is rather low which makes timing difficult, especially for KICT and KCNU. KSLN and KHUT will like clear in the next few hours. After 10Z tomorrow, VFR conditions are expected to return and stay for the remainder of the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM