Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
406 FXUS63 KILX 072012 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong thunderstorms have redevelop east of I-55 this afternoon, with some possibly becoming severe with hail and tornadoes possible. - Wednesday afternoon severe event continues to show the highest probability for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes focusing along and south of the I-70 corridor. However, the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes is also possible between I-70 and I-72/Danville, with the probability is lower. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Convection will be ongoing across eastern parts of the CWA by 4 pm. Some of the storms could be severe and the tornado watch has already been issued for areas east of I-55, including Mclean Co. Additional counties will likely be cleared before the main issuance of the forecast....by 4 pm. The boundary associated with these storms will quickly move east late this afternoon and by 7 pm most of the area will likely be out of any convection threat. Our far southeast counties will continue for a couple of hours in the early evening, then dry weather is expected through the night and early tomorrow morning. Another round of strong to severe convection is expected tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening as mid level troughing and southwest flow continues. Our CWA will remain on the northern edges of the threat area but large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will also be possible south of I-70. A smaller threat for severe weather also expected to the north of I-70 and south of I-72/Danville. After the precip tonight, lighter winds and clear skies will lead to some fog development. Patchy fog is possible across eastern IL, with areas of fog along and south of I-70. Temps will remain on the warmer side tonight and tomorrow but become slightly cooler tomorrow night. Auten .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 As the low pressure pulls away, an inverted trough will rotate through northern IL with showers across northern parts of the CWA. The mid level trough will also move through Thur night, but showers will have waned at that point. The CWA will remain in northwest type flow the remainder of the long term period...Friday through Tuesday. A few weak disturbances will move through the area during this period with only small chances of precip expected. Temps through the period will start off cooler with highs in the 60s Thur through Sunday. Warmer temps in the 70s will return for Mon and Tue. Auten && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Convection is developing quickly over parts of central IL early this afternoon. However, based on HiRes models this will not last very long at any given site. Cloud cover is MVFR with threat of storms...2hrs for PIA, 4hrs for BMI, 2hrs for SPI, 3hrs for DEC, and 4hrs of CMI. After this goes through later this afternoon, clouds will also dissipate/diminish with cirrus or clear skies the remainder of the TAF forecast period. Winds will be breezy today with gusts at all sites up to around 20kts...then diminish into this evening. wind direction will be southerly to southwesterly this afternoon and then remain southwesterly through this evening. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$