988
FXUS62 KJAX 281748
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
148 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridge axis will remain anchored over the Carolinas
an East to Southeast steering flow off the Atlantic Ocean through
tonight. Breezy E-SE surface winds at 15-20G25-30 mph this
afternoon will fade after sunset to 5 mph inland and 10 mph along
the Atlantic Coast. The flow pattern will still remain elevated
enough through tonight for isolated shower/sprinkles over the
Atlantic Coastal waters pushing inland to the I-95 corridor at
times before fading and will keep 15 percent PoPs going with
tonight`s forecast. Lows will fall into the upper 50s/near 60 over
inland areas as skies become mostly clear towards morning, with
some patchy fog possible around sunrise. Closer to the Atlantic
Coast, partly cloudy skies will continue as periods of Strato-Cu
continue to move onshore at times with lows in the 65-70 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday, the mid to upper level ridge pattern over the Mid-Atlantic
region south into eastern NC will support surface surface high
pressure sinking southward from near the SE US coast into our area.
This will bring south to southeasterly low level flow and and moist
low levels over the area with marine stratocumulus clouds skirting
a bit more south to north with isolated light showers paralleling
the coast over the nearshore waters and silent pops along I-95 for
any short lived quick showers that move just onshore before fading
as dry mid level air shifting in from the western Atlantic prevents
much depth/organization to any showers. Highs will be cooler at the
coast with Atlantic seabreeze turning winds east southeasterly
10-15 mph and southerly 8-12 mph farther inland with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 along the coast and mid 80s west of I-95.

Monday night, the drier air aloft will create mostly clear skies.
SE winds remaining high enough to prevent fog at 5-10 mph. Lows
will be in the low to mid 60s inland and the upper 60s along the
coast.

Tuesday, the mid to upper ridging will shift into western Atlantic
waters as a weak, remnant southern stream shortwave trough moves
into the southern Appalachians from the TN valley. This will allow
moisture to rebound to around 1.2 to 1.4 inches of PWAT due to
southerly low level flow as high pressure moves away to the east.
This will be enough to generate isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm as both Atlantic and Gulf seabreeze merge inland
near the US17 and highway 301 corridors. Highs will be warmer
with low 80s at the coast and mid to upper 80s inland.

Tuesday night, isolated showers and T`storms should fade after
sunset with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly clear late. South
to southwest winds may allow for some low stratus to advect in
from the Gulf, but enough low level flow may prevent fog from
forming over western areas. Lows will be in the mid 60s inland
and the upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Wednesday, winds will become more west southwesterly as a trough
sinks across the area. The Atlantic seabreeze will be more pinned
between US 17 and I-95 ahead of the trough with isolated showers
or even a T`storm in the afternoon to early evening. Highs will
approach 90 inland and be cooler in the low to mid 80s at the
coast.

Thursday, drier air will filter in as high pressure builds down
from the Mid Atlantic states and created ENE winds over the area
and mostly sunny skies. With the drier air aloft, no showers
expected, but highs will be warmer inland in the low 90s with
low/mid 80s along the coast in the onshore flow.

Friday into the weekend, easterly flow will gradually veer to
southerly with isolated showers and T`storms over SE GA while
a cold front nearly stalls across the deep south. Highs will
approach 90 inland and the low to mid 80s at the coast. Lows
during the period will be in the low to mid 60s inland and the
upper 60s to near 70 at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Breezy E-SE flow will continue through the afternoon hours, while
any isolated showers (VCSH) will be few and far between, but will
keep them in at the coastal TAF sites of SSI/SGJ/CRG for
consistency at this point. Otherwise winds decrease after sunset
to less than 10 knots with VFR conditions continuing through the
overnight hours. Fog chances remain too low for inclusion around
sunrise (10-12Z) but may need to be introduced for VQQ with later
issuance`s. SE winds increase late in the period (14-18Z) to over
10 knots again but VFR conds will continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Combined seas continue to slowly subside to 4 to 6 feet this
afternoon and will drop the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) headlines
with the next forecast issuance, but will keep Small Craft
Exercise Caution (SCEC) headline in place due to seas of 4 to 6
feet through tonight, mainly for the offshore waters. Otherwise
with the High pressure ridge over the Carolinas expect southeast
winds in the 10-15 knot range to continue through Monday before
the ridge axis weakens but slides southward into the local marine
waters Tuesday/Wednesday with winds becoming southerly and seas
continuing to subside to 2 to 4 feet, while local sea breeze will
continue along the Atlantic Coast. This pattern will continue
through the end of the week with no headlines expected at this
time.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will likely linger into
Monday with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft continuing, with a shift
downward to Moderate Risk on Tuesday/Wednesday with surf/breakers
in the 2-4 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  85  62  87 /  10   0   0  20
SSI  66  78  66  81 /  20  20  10  10
JAX  62  83  64  85 /  20  20   0  20
SGJ  64  81  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
GNV  58  85  63  86 /   0   0   0  20
OCF  58  85  63  87 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$