042
FXUS62 KJAX 280613
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Occasional
broken ceilings of 3,500 - 4,500 feet will be possible at the
terminals, especially after sunrise. Isolated showers may move
onshore from the Atlantic waters after 12Z, but confidence remains
too low to indicate anything other than vicinity coverage at the
terminals during the daylight hours on Sunday. Cloud cover is
expected to decrease towards 00Z Monday. Gusty onshore winds that
have been sustained around 15 knots overnight at SSI, SGJ, and CRG
will diminish to around 10 knots after 08Z, while easterly surface
winds sustained at 5-10 knots elsewhere will diminish to around 5
knots by 09Z. East-southeasterly surface winds will become breezy
by 15Z, with sustained speeds of 10-15 knots and gusty at the
inland terminals and around 15 knots and gusty at the coastal
terminals. Wind speeds will subside substantially after 01Z
Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Isolated light rain showers that are more or less
sprinkles will continue to push on shore until drier air offshore
(PWATS < 1") advects slowly westward and over the region tonight.
Mostly cloudy skies continue as moisture circulates within the upper
ridge aloft. The onshore breeze and cloud cover will keep temps mild
overnight with lows anticipated to read in the low 60s inland and
mid to upper 60s for coastal areas.

The surf zone remains rough via webcams and the onshore flow. There
is a High Rip Current Risk in effect through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Sunday...High pressure ridge axis remains north of the region across
the Carolinas and breezy Easterly flow will continue across NE FL/SE
GA, with strongest winds at the Atlantic Beaches at 15-20G25-30 mph
and mixing down to 10-15G20-25mph over inland areas by the afternoon
hours. The onshore flow will continue to keep temps slightly below
normal with highs in the mid/upper 70s for the Atlantic Coastal
counties and into the 80-85 range over inland areas. While an
isolated coastal shower cannot be ruled out, overall measurable
rainfall chances will remain in the "silent" 10-15% range with the
ongoing forecast.

Sunday Night...Not much change with the pattern other than a slight
shift to a Southeast steering flow through the overnight hours
which will lead to less wind than is expected tonight and will
allow for skies to become mostly clear over inland areas with
Strato-Cu clouds still pushing onshore along the Atlantic Coast.
Low temps expected to fall into the upper 50s inland and remain in
the 60s along the Atlantic Coast. Slightly less wind and cloud
cover over inland areas may lead to some patchy fog development,
but chances of any significant fog remain too low to include in
the forecast at this time.

Monday...High pressure ridge axis attempts to shift slowly southward
into the NE FL/SE GA region which will allow for the steering flow
to become more South-Southeast and lead to temps returning to more
normal levels with highs in the middle 80s over inland areas and
around 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas. While the SE surface
flow will onshore and expect East Coast sea breeze to develop and
move inland, there will be a 10-15% chance of a sprinkle or shower
as it moves inland, but will continue to keep any measurable
rainfall "silent" in the ongoing forecast.

Monday Night...Ridge axis will remain across the region with a
light southerly steering flow under Mostly clear skies. Temps will
nudge upwards to slightly above normal levels with lows in the
lower 60s inland and mid/upper 60s along the Atlantic Coast.
Slightly stronger signal for some patchy late night dense fog by
sunrise Tuesday morning over inland areas, but too early to add to
the ongoing forecast, but something to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Tuesday...The newer 12Z GFS/NAM model runs are suggesting a weaker
frontal boundary pushing into the region from NW with some widely
scattered shower/isolated storm activity during afternoon/evening
hours, which could interact with local sea breezes, but the ECMWF
model remains too dry with this feature for much in the way of
measurable rainfall so will continue ongoing "silent" forecast
with PoPs of 10-15%. Best chances for any rainfall will likely
across across inland SE GA. Ahead of this feature, Max temps will
push into the upper 80s/near 90 over inland areas with 80-85 temps
along the Atlantic Coast.

Wednesday through Saturday...With weak high pressure ridge
lingering in the region through the end of the week and
approaching frontal boundary from the Northwest, expect mainly
diurnal sea breezes to slowly push inland each day, but any
significant moisture remains limited and rainfall chances remain
on the low end in the 10-20% range, but cannot be ruled out on any
day along the sea breeze, while longer range models are suggesting
that better rainfall chances will exist by next weekend as
possible stronger frontal boundary pushes closer to the region.
While rainfall forecast remains low to moderate, models are
suggesting above normal temps through this period with a moderate
to high confidence of daily highs around 90 degrees over inland
areas and in the lower/middle 80s closer to the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong high pressure to the north northeast near the Mid-Atlantic
coast will sink southward down the eastern seaboard through this
evening with breezy easterly winds as a coastal trough over the
northeast Florida waters tightens the local pressure gradient and
Small Craft Advisory conditions the northeast Florida nearshore
waters and all of the offshore waters. Slightly less winds and
seas will bring Small Craft exercise caution conditions to the
Georgia nearshore waters. Isolated showers will shift westward
with the trough over the waters through this early evening. The
high will slowly weaken overnight as it shifts southward near the
North Carolina Outer Banks with winds diminishing near shore.
Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist offshore through
Sunday morning. Winds and seas will further subside late Sunday
into Sunday night as weaker high pressure anchors off the
southeastern seaboard early next week, followed by prevailing
winds shifting to southerly towards midweek.

Rip Currents: High Risk of Rip currents at all area beaches today.
A high risk is expected at all area beaches again on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Moderate Flooding continues over portions of the lowers Santa Fe
River near Three Rivers Estates, but should lower into minor
flooding by late Sunday, then remaining in minor flood through
next week. Minor flooding also continues along portions of the
Santa Fe River near Hildreth through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  57  85  61 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  75  65  78  66 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  79  61  83  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  78  64  81  65 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  83  59  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  85  59  87  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$