823
FXUS64 KLCH 012329
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A more active weather pattern is expected for the short term.
Starting this afternoon a few isolated showers and storms moved
through the area, with storms over part of the offshore gulf waters.
Activity of this sort is expected to temporarily taper over the
evening, however we will see it ramp up early Thursday morning and
continue from there.

Flow aloft will become southwesterly with southerly flow already
prevailing at the surface. Ample moisture will pull into the area.
PWATs have (and will continue) to increase with max values shy of
the 2 inch mark tomorrow afternoon over parts of SETX and CenLA.

Models do not seem to be handling the system the best, however the
general consensus is that scattered to numerous showers and storms
will ramp up before daybreak tomorrow with the bulk of the storm
system exiting off to the east in the late afternoon hours.
Additional scattered showers will persist behind the main line
going into the evening. Another short "quiet" period will occur
between that and an additional round of activity that will pick up
late tomorrow night into Friday.

Rainfall totals over the period will be in the 1 to 3 inch range
with higher amounts possible in some areas. The bulk of the rain,
however, is expected to occur tomorrow. Future additional amounts
will exacerbate current flooding conditions. As a result, a Flood
Watch will be in effect starting early tomorrow morning.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A couple of weak disturbances moving overhead in the zonal flow
aloft will keep small rain chances in the forecast through the
weekend, mainly north of I-10. Overall, this convection looks like
it`ll be fairly isolated over the local area, with better coverage
expected further to our north. Otherwise, the weekend will consist
of warm and humid conditions with highs expected to top out in the
mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Moving into the work week a large mid/upper level trough begins to
strengthen over the Rockies while at the surface a cold front/low
pressure system will be moving into the Plains. This system will
shift east across the north/central Plains through the mid-week time
frame, keeping a west to southwest flow overhead aloft. Although the
cold front will remain well to our north, the pressure gradient
overhead is expected to tighten in response which will bring breezy
conditions across the CWA from Mon and beyond. Temperature wise,
warming temps are on the horizon, with highs on Mon in the mid to
upper 80s warming further into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wed.
Overnight, lows will generally range from the low to mid 60s.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Mainly light southeast flow is expected for the remainder of the
evening into the overnight. Main concern in the short term will be
the redevelopment of low clouds from MVFR down to IFR conditions.

After 02/12z the forecast will depend on potential MCS development
over Texas and how it moves across the forecast area. At this time
will cover this with PROB30 at all terminals starting at KBPT at
02/12z and ending at KLFT/KARA at 02/21z.

If the storm complex does make it through, expect IFR conditions
with low visibility from heavy rainfall along with gusty winds.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A brief period of increasing rain chances, winds and seas will
take place on Thursday ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. No
severe or Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this
disturbance. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are
anticipated through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  80  67  80 /  10  80  40  80
LCH  72  82  71  81 /  30  50  30  50
LFT  72  85  72  82 /  10  50  20  50
BPT  72  83  71  83 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday evening for
     LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday evening for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07