445
FXUS64 KLCH 072037
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
337 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Another very warm and muggy day with air temperatures in the mid
80s and dew points in the mid 70s. A few very small brief showers
have popped up every now and then with maybe 0.01 of rainfall at
best.

Similar conditions will continue for Wednesday into the day on
Thursday, so A/C units will be getting plenty of work.

Forecast becomes a little more interesting for late Thursday into
Thursday night. The upper level ridge over the forecast area will
flatten out and this will allow a short wave to push a surface
"cold" front into the forecast area during the evening hours and
through it during the overnight. Still some question as to how far
south the upper level energy and low convergence will match up to
allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop and this will be
reflected in the pop forecast with high numbers over central
Louisiana and lower numbers along and south of I-10.

A highly anomalous Gulf air mass will be in place before the
front arrives with PWAT values in the 1.75 to 2 inch range which
are over the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo. Also, favorable
speed shear, low level instability, and favorable mid level lapse
rates, would allow for strong to low severe storms producing heavy
rainfall. The question is just how much convection can get going.
Therefore, the severe weather and excessive rainfall potential
will be on the low end. Still a couple of days away to watch this
and fine tune the details.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Longterm period starts off fairly dry behind a passing cool front
and under increasing heights aloft. The ridging that does build in
Friday and Saturday will be weak, but combined with slightly drier
airmass, no rain chances are anticipated on these days.

Surface high pressure ridge moves to the east on Sunday allowing for
return flow and meager rain chances during the afternoon in western
zones. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms occurs on Monday
and again Tuesday with the arrival of a series of shortwave trofs
over the region. Broad lift ahead of trofing will lift a warm front
into coastal areas Monday; widespread convection is expected
throughout the remainder of the day. Fcst CAPE profiles look very
meager on globals, pointing to warm cloud layer processes and very
efficient rainfall under forcing from the trof (fcst PWATs well
above 1.75 inches once again). So long as precipitation remains
progressive and we get a downpour that moves along quickly, flooding
concerns will be lower than previous weeks. All concerned parties
should monitor the forecast for any changes in the coming days.

Rain chances pick up oncemore on Tuesday with another weak shortwave
pulse moving over the coastal warm front.

Thanks to rain-cooled airmass and ambient cloud cover, temperatures
will be held in check through the longterm. High temps in the lower
80s are on tap.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The main story in the aviation forecast is the low ceilings with
MVFR conditions to start the period becoming IFR overnight. At
this point, winds are progged to stay up enough that fog will not
be an issue, maybe just some minor visibility restrictions. IFR
ceilings will again increase to MVFR by 08/15z.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure at the surface off the southeast US coast will ridge
into the coastal waters over the next couple of days, and this
will allow light to moderate onshore flow with mainly low to
modest seas to continue.

Late Thursday, a surface front will move through the coastal
waters with a few showers or storms. A moderate offshore flow will
then develop behind the front for Friday into the weekend.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  90  72  91 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  74  86  75  89 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  76  88  76  91 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  75  87  75  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07