Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
000
FXUS64 KLCH 130848
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
348 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Dry (relatively speaking) weather can be expected for the next
several days with a slight warming (and moistening) trend
continuing. Aloft we have a ridge that will build in over the area
which will do its part in keeping us rain free and warmer. At the
surface, we have the surface high pressure that is currently over
the eastern part of the area that will move further off to the
east over the course of the day. We will see a return of southerly
flow as a result which will lead to more humid conditions and
more cloud cover. Also starting tonight, and what we could see for
consecutive nights from now, is patchy fog. While the issuance of
a Dense Fog Advisory is not expected at this time, fog could
potentially complicate early morning commutes to and fro.
Over the beginning of the work week, an upper level low will work
its way across the Desert SW then into the Central Plains, pushing a
front across there as it does. There is an isolated chance of seeing
light showers in our area on Tuesday, however not enough of a chance
to make it into the grids at the moment.
Stigger/87
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Broad ridging from the western Atlantic extends west across the Gulf
of Mexico by Tuesday morning while a strong surface low centers over
the Western Plains. An associated cold front and troughing deepen
south to the Tx / Mexico border along with broad troughing.
Naturally, this setup creates enhanced onshore flow across SETX and
SWLA with daytime temperatures trending toward the mid 80’s for many
locations inland.
With the Midwest low’s eastward progression halted near the eastern
Great Lakes due to expansive ridging off the Canadian Maritimes, the
associated cold front begins to weaken near the ARKLATEX region.
Signals for precipitation begin to drop significantly over this area
with less dynamics available. That said, following surface high
pressure will push the relatively dry cold front offshore by
Thursday evening. Hereafter, the pattern becomes unsettled as the
remnant front becomes a stationary boundary across the central Gulf.
Through the early weekend a surface low attempts to develop over
the Colorado Rockies while thermal troughing over NE Mexico deepens
into the southern CONUS. Long range guidance, coupled with CPC
analysis indicates these two features may interact toward the end of
the weekend and beyond the scope of the forecast. In the meanwhile,
confidence remains strong for little if any precipitation to occur
through Thursday night with even the most favorable signals
remaining to the northern tier counties and parishes.
Kowalski/30
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024
VFR to continue with SKC or FEW250 expected and little, if any,
fog or ground fog to reduce visibilities. The only FG
probabilities remain along the I-10 corridor briefly around
daybreak. Surface high pressure centered over the region will
shift slowly east through the period, with light and variable
winds trending more southerly by Saturday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Light and somewhat variable flow, courtesy of nearby high
pressure, will shift more southerly today as the high quickly
moves east of the region. Onshore winds will begin to strengthen
by early next week as low pressure forms and deepens over the
Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 82 55 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 80 62 79 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 82 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 80 63 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...78