Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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020 FXUS64 KLCH 010229 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 929 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Clear skies and light to calm winds favor fog development again although with a full day for soils to dry, don`t expect fog to be quite as widespread or dense as was seen this morning. Any fog that develops should dissipate by 14Z. Increasing moisture Wednesday combined with a weak upper trof moving into Southeast Texas will increase cloud cover and initialize some isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Further from the influence of the trof, afternoon highs across central Louisiana and acadiana are expected to flirt with the 90 degree mark. The inherited forecast is in good shape and no changes were made this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Currently we have near zonal flow aloft while at the surface, an area of high pressure over northern Louisiana is moving off to the east. Southerly flow will return tonight and prevail for the rest of the short term forecast. Low level moisture will slowly increase which will increase the chances of seeing patchy fog in a few areas tonight and tomorrow morning. Whatever fog that forms will burn off after sunrise. Our next shot of rain comes tomorrow as the first in a series of weak disturbances moves through. Some isolated to scattered showers return to the forecast by the afternoon period, mainly across parts of SETX. PWATs over the day will increase with max values around the 90th percentile over the western third of the CWA. Flow aloft will become southwesterly with southerly flow already prevailing at the surface. Ample moisture will pull into the area with increasing PWATs going into Thursday. Showers and storms will ramp up Thursday morning with activity becoming widespread across the northern half of the CWA. Rainfall totals over the day will be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range with higher amounts possible in some areas. Currently SETX and CenLA are in a slight to marginal risk for excessive rainfall. There is a moderate risk area right north of the CWA. This will be monitored over the coming days. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A somewhat unsettled pattern looks to be on tap as we begin the long term period, with a cold front expected to be draped across the Ark- La-Tex early Friday beneath a weak zonal flow aloft. As the boundary meanders to our north on Friday a robust shortwave is expected to move overhead in the flow aloft, resulting in elevated rain chances throughout the day Friday. Stuck with NBM POPs for Friday which paints the highest rain chances across interior SE TX and CENLA, generally north of the HWY 190 corridor, while lesser rain chances are expected further south further away from the frontal boundary. Better rain chances across inland areas should keep temps in the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday, while further south we will warm into the low to mid 80s. Moving into the weekend the cold front to our north will continue to slowly meander south before eventually dissipating across CENLA by Sunday. At the same time a couple more disturbances look to pass overhead in the flow aloft. With lesser support at the surface weekend rain chances look minimal, with just small 15-30% POPs on tap for Saturday and no precip expected Sun. With less rain and more sunshine expect temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s throughout the weekend areawide, while overnight lows will struggle to cool past the 70 degree mark. Monday and beyond a dry, humid, and warm weather pattern continues with onshore flow pumping warm, moist air inland beneath a building ridge aloft. This will result in highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, which is around 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. Overnight, lows will continue to fall into the lower 70s while dewpoints will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s both during the day and overnight. 17 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions with latest visible satellite imagery showing nearly clear skies across the region and at area terminals. This will continue through the night with winds diminishing to less than 5 KT and becoming variable. Pockets of fog are again expected to develop, with MVFR vsby reductions expected by 08-10Z. Confidence is not high regarding possible reductions to LIFR (at least not as widespread as last night/early this morning). LAMP guidance is downplaying anything less than MVFR (with the exception of ARA/LFT) while NBM probs for less than 1SM are between 20 and 30 percent. Any fog that develops should quickly mix out by 13-14Z, with VFR to persist through the day. Did insert VCTS mention at the BPT TAF for the afternoon where CAMs suggest a few showers or storms developing. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase through the middle of the week as the surface trough and deep layer upper level trough approaches the area. Onshore flow expected for the the period with an SCA possibly needed by Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly more with winds in the gulf waters increasing above 20kts briefly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 60 89 66 81 / 0 10 10 50 LCH 65 85 71 82 / 0 30 10 30 LFT 67 89 71 84 / 0 20 0 20 BPT 68 84 72 83 / 0 30 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...24