111
FXUS64 KLIX 290754
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
254 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Severe TS watch for the NW valid now until 14z(9am).

Winds will begin to weaken today dropping below advisory thresholds.
But there will still be gusts to 25mph at times and even higher
winds up to 40mph associated with the line of storms moving into the
area from the west with a few areas along this line possibly severe.
All severe wx modes will be possible and heavy rainfall will
accompany as well. The line will begin to speed up as it moves
toward the area this morning. Rain rates along the whole line
will be 2 to 4 inches per hour. Even though progressive for most
areas, there could still be a quick 1 to 2 inches that could
overwhelm low lying and poor drainage areas. Totals of 1 to 3
inches with locally higher amounts will be possible with this
system. It will likely be a rainy day for most of the day for most
of the area as a shield of light to moderate rain develops in the
wake of this system and lingers into the early evening hours. As
the gradient winds back off, it will cause the coastal flood
advisory footprint to become smaller and wind relative headlines
will begin to fall over the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The scenario of fronts moving as far east as Dallas and stalling
only to retrograde will continue. This doesn`t change a lot locally
for much of the upcoming week, but there is a possibility that this
front gets oriented east/west and stalls near our area by the end of
the week. We will need to see how this plays out through the week
but it could bring another good chance of rain to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Mostly MVFR cigs this today but vis will move in and out of IFR
levels as there will be +TSRA at most if not all sites today and
this will be timed in the 12z taf set. Lingering -SHRA will continue
thorugh several hours after the strongest storms move through and no
breaks to the MVFR cigs are expected. Tonight cigs are expected to
drop to VFR and possibly to LIFR levels after midnight. Winds will
be a bit weaker today but will some gusts to around 20kt will be
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Strong SE winds(20-25kt) will begin to weaken today over all marine
areas. Small craft advisories will be lowered by mid morning and
caution statements will take their place. Winds should continue to
ease tonight into Tuesday falling to around the 5-10kt range. Winds
will remain out of the SE through this fcast but should remain
around 10kt for the most part.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  61  84  64 / 100  50  30  10
BTR  82  67  88  69 / 100  40  40  10
ASD  83  64  85  67 /  90  50  40  10
MSY  83  68  84  71 /  90  50  40  10
GPT  81  66  83  67 /  70  60  40  10
PQL  83  65  84  65 /  60  60  30   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ086-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE