079
FXUS64 KLIX 271744
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong moisture loading into the stalling frontal systems in the
foothills and plains causing strong spring breezes over our area is
quite normal for this time of year before the easterlies win out
and we move into the heat of summer. But while the westerlies are
still active, we can still get some strong storms due to this
battle. With the systems stalling to the west and the upper level
troughing not making much advance, we will see these winds
continue and possibly get a bit stronger. The normal dance of
stronger winds over marine areas at night and over land during the
day will also continue. Land gusts overnight should give a clue to
what the sustained wind speeds will be during the daylight hours
once mixed out. Some of these numbers are in the 18-23kt range
this morning, so to see some sustained winds in and around
20-25mph with gusts to 30mph will be a good possibility today and
possibly Sunday. We will post a wind advisory for today mainly for
the frequent gusts 25+mph. The other headlines will remain as
posted. Water levels will rise with these consistent winds and
levels 1-2ft above normal levels should be the result. We will
also bring precip numbers up a bit for the Pearl River and
Mississippi coastal areas for Sunday. There is some evidence that
as the trough out west budges just a bit farther east by tonight
into Sunday that it will squeeze the western periphery of the sfc
high to the east. This should cause a really good sfc convergence
area over the gulf into our area for Sunday. This should be able
to promote at least some showers during the early morning hours
Sunday and possibly some deeper showers and even a strike or two
of lightning with heating Sunday. The NBM mean is not showing this
very well so it has been manually added to the fcast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This story will get old as fronts move as far east as Dallas and
stall only to retrograde. This activity will continue to orphan the
line of sh/ts that develop along the front. The line moves a bit
farther east then dissipates as support is taken away. This will
change a bit by Monday. Another line of sh/ts will move away from
the frontal support but will not meet the same demise as the others.
The support will come from the H3 jet from the upper trough to our
NW coupling with the strong almost zonal flow coming across the
EastPac into Mexico and over the gulf. This will set up a strong
split flow at H3 near our area and will move east with time Sun
night and Monday. The upper trough will not move much farther east
than the Arkansas/Louisiana area Monday. This means that as the area
of divergence aloft moves east, it will eventually become weaker as
it moves east of the Miss/Ala state line. And in turn, since this
will be the support for the sh/ts that area moving east Monday,
the sh/ts will also begin to weaken and decay. No frontal passage
with these storms but they will offer some temporary cooling as
they cold pool out. This could give our area some much needed rain
as well. But we will need to get closer to this time frame to see
how much. This frontal dance to the west will continue into the
foreseeable future but the front may actually become oriented more
zonally over Arkansas by the end of the upcoming week. This
doesn`t change a lot here, but sh/ts could move away from this
front and give us a chance of rain from time to time by late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs will persist throughout the period with
more VFR in the daytime hours and MVFR this evening and overnight.
Very breezy conditions(~15G25KT) will exist for all terminals
today and tomorrow. Unlike most nights when winds relax, they are
unlikely to weaken much as the pressure gradient remains tight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong SE winds(20-25kt) will remain over all marine areas through
at least the next few days if not more. Small craft advisories have
been extended for this reason. There will be some gusts to gale
force, but this should be the rule most of the time. But this will
be a high end advisory for all waters. Winds will remain out of the
SE through this fcast but should ease just a bit as we move through
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  82  66  81 /   0  20  10  80
BTR  69  88  71  86 /   0  10  10  80
ASD  67  83  68  84 /   0  20   0  50
MSY  71  84  71  85 /   0  10   0  60
GPT  69  80  69  81 /   0  30   0  30
PQL  66  82  66  84 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ058-070-076-
     078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE