000
FXUS63 KLSX 141949
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
249 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

FOCUS FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE POPS.

ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL DETERMINE
EARLY EVENING POPS...BUT WITH CONVECTION DISSIPATING...MAY BE ABLE
TO CUT BACK TO CHANCE POPS. BELIEVE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER WRN IA
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. MDLS SUGGEST THESE TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD AS THE LLJ
VEERS. MDLS HINT THAT TSRA MAY DEVELOP AS FAR S AS THE NRN FRINGES
OF THE STL METRO AREA.

WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...HAVE
TRENDED TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

TILLY

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

(TONIGHT - MONDAY)

ACTIVE WX WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE SW OF THE FA IS EXPECTED TO STEER AN
OLD MCV FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS THRU SWRN IL
TONIGHT BUT WILL LARGELY ACT UPON A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS.  NONE OF
THE MODELS WANT TO PUSH MUCH PCPN...IF ANYTHING...THRU THE FA AS A
RESULT...BUT AM SUSPECT OF THIS.  MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...
AND WITH A LOCALLY STRONG SOURCE OF LIFT IN THE OLD MCV...BELIEVE
THE MODELS ARE UNDERDONE IN PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THIS FEATURE...AND
HAVE CONTINUED IN LARGE PART THE POP TRENDS DESPITE A LOWERING IN
MOS VALUES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN GET FLATTENED FROM LATE SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY BY PASSAGE OF A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN TX.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RICH MOISTURE AND WITH DECENT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ANTICIPATED FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF
A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE NRN FA...SHOULD SEE HI-END CHC AND LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST LOCALES...PREFERRING AT OR ABOVE THE HIGHEST MOS.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THRU
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING CONTINUED CHCS FOR TSRA.
ALL OF THIS WILL CULMINATE ON MONDAY WITH A SFC CDFNT SWEEPING THRU.

WITH ALL OF THESE RAIN CHCS...ANY HOT TEMPS WILL BE KEPT AT BAY.
SATURDAY IS THEIR ONE DECENT OPPORTUNITY AT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF DECENT STRENGTH STILL IN THE VICINITY AND
RAIN PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE.  MOS TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TOO
WARM AND UNDERCUT.

(TUESDAY - THURSDAY)

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD THANKS TO PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT ON MONDAY
ALLOWING SFC HI PRES TO PREVAIL.

WENT DRY POPS FOR TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...BUT DID SLIP IN SOME LO
POPS AGAIN BY THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND A SFC WRMFNT IN THE
AREA.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO RE-ASSERT
ITSELF OVER THE HI PLAINS...ANOTHER STRONG PAC NW SYSTEM CRASHES
ONSHORE AND LIMITS ITS AMPLIFICATION...AND SO THE FINAL LEADUP TO
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE...IT IS LOOKING LIKE OUR AREA WILL AVOID ANY BIG
HEAT WAVES.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

WILL BE UPDATING KUIN TO INCLUDE AT LEAST SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIFT EAST...SOUTHEAST. THINK KCOU AND METRO TAF
SITES WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT AFFECT
THEM. CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT ROUND OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME VC OR PROB30S FOR
TERMINAL SITES BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION MAY THROW ANOTHER WEAKENING BATCH OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE
TERMINAL SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL CONFINE THIS
THREAT TO A PROB30 AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS     84  68  89  72 /  10  30  30  70
QUINCY          81  65  86  68 /  80  70  60  70
COLUMBIA        85  67  87  70 /  10  20  50  70
JEFFERSON CITY  86  67  87  69 /  10  20  50  70
SALEM           81  62  85  70 /   5  20  20  60
FARMINGTON      83  62  87  69 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX