Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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175 FXUS64 KLZK 300909 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Recent night fog sat imgry depicted developing fog acrs much of the FA, w/ sfc high pressure centered over the Mid-South. Thru the remaining overnight hrs and towards sunrise, expect areas of fog to persist around the region, w/ locally dense fog (VISBY`s less than 1 mile). Foggy condns should improve after sunrise w/ the onset of diurnal heating/mixing. Thru the day today, expect settled condns acrs the FA, w/ winds bcmg more Srly by the aftn hrs as broad sfc cyclonic flow develops acrs the Cntrl Plains. Strong WAA wl start to yield above normal temps around the region, w/ fcst high temps in the mid to upper 80s the next few days. Rain chances wl return to the fcst on Wed as WAA continues across the region, w/ higher Chc PoPs mainly focused acrs portions of Wrn AR, including some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 An unsettled weather pattern will return by the second half of the week here in Arkansas as a fairly significant complex of thunderstorms will likely be moving into the region from east TX and OK. SW Arkansas will be at the highest risk for any heavier rain and flash flood potential considering we are now well above climatological norms triggering lower flash flood guidance. Will need to keep a close watch on the progression out of NE Texas over the next few days as this area of concern could shift into LA. In the meantime a cold front will drop in from the north providing another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms across the state heading into the end of the week. The threat for heavy rain is somewhat less aggressive but will need to monitor streamflows and recent rainfall observations for any high runoff and flood prone areas. Temperatures will be mild through the period with lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. These will fluctuate day to day due to rainfall chances and the presence of enhanced sky cover. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Expect VFR condns over the next few hours at area terminals, with areas of dense fog expected to develop around much of the state. MVFR to IFR VISBY`s are anticipated, w/ lower VIS over Cntrl to Srn terminals. Shortly after daybreak Tues mrng, fog should begin to mix out w/ the onset of diurnal heating/mixing, and VFR condns should resume thru the day, w/ winds bcmg Srly. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 82 62 86 64 / 0 0 10 10 Camden AR 85 60 87 65 / 0 0 20 20 Harrison AR 82 60 84 64 / 0 10 10 10 Hot Springs AR 84 61 87 65 / 0 0 20 20 Little Rock AR 85 64 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 Monticello AR 84 63 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 Mount Ida AR 85 61 86 66 / 0 0 20 30 Mountain Home AR 82 60 86 64 / 0 10 10 10 Newport AR 83 61 86 64 / 0 0 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 84 62 87 65 / 0 0 10 10 Russellville AR 85 61 87 65 / 0 0 10 20 Searcy AR 83 60 86 63 / 0 0 10 10 Stuttgart AR 83 63 86 66 / 0 0 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ005>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-123-140-141- 223-240-241-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...72