Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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805 FXUS64 KLZK 022251 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 551 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered areas of precipitation moving northeast across the forecast area, with a few convective cells with lightning affecting the delta region of the state. This activity is promoted by short wavelength energy approaching the state. This activity will continue through most of the overnight hours, with the greatest coverage of precipitation expected across extreme eastern sections of the forecast area. Will have several quick moving fronts approach and affect the forecast area during the rest of the forecast period. Climatologically, it is an uncommon instance that a front approaching the forecast area would not support severe thunderstorm formation. At this time, however, a review of forecast fields indicate that those values are not in the parameter space that favors severe thunderstorm formation. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Not many appreciable changes have been made to the forecast/grids this afternoon as new guidance remains in relatively good agreement with current thinking that our sensible weather will initially be unsettled. Any differences were blended together with consensus between models seeming to be the best way to go. Period initiates with upper troughing over the upper midwest and a sprawling upper low /trough sitting off the Oregon coast. On the surface, a cold front will be sitting over northwest Arkansas where it will remain through late Sunday. Upper wave kicking out of the main trough will interact with the boundary as it starts to move to the north as a warm front Sunday, resulting in a broad area of showers and thunderstorms with the highest QPF over the northwest portion of the state. Aforementioned western system will lift out early next week and move into the northern high plains. Warm front will lift to the north of the area allowing temperatures to rise to well above seasonal averages. As the system moves into the northern plains, another cold front will be approaching as the parent low occludes out. This front will likely remain to the north and west of the state and while precipitation chances will decrease, they will not entirely go away. The highest chances of precipitation from Tuesday onward will be across the north and west, closer to that front. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Some isolated to scattered SHRA will continue into the evening hrs across portions of the area...with an isolated TSRA also possible. A break will be seen for portions of the area overnight into the morning hrs...then most areas should remain dry for the daytime hrs Fri. However...convection will become possible again in the afternoon across SRN sections. Some low CIGs and patchy fog will be possible overnight into Fri morning as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 64 79 63 82 / 70 50 20 60 Camden AR 66 80 64 83 / 50 70 30 40 Harrison AR 60 77 60 78 / 40 30 10 70 Hot Springs AR 64 80 64 81 / 50 50 30 50 Little Rock AR 66 80 67 83 / 70 50 30 50 Monticello AR 67 79 66 83 / 70 70 40 40 Mount Ida AR 63 80 63 80 / 40 40 30 60 Mountain Home AR 61 78 61 79 / 50 30 10 60 Newport AR 65 80 65 82 / 80 40 20 50 Pine Bluff AR 66 80 65 82 / 70 60 40 50 Russellville AR 63 81 63 81 / 50 30 20 60 Searcy AR 64 79 64 82 / 70 50 30 50 Stuttgart AR 67 79 67 82 / 80 60 40 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....57 AVIATION...62