Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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945 FXUS64 KLZK 070736 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 236 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Convection this morning moving across NRN/NWRN sections will continue to move east through the early morning hrs...gradually weakening over time. Some strong to SVR storms will remain possible this morning...with damaging winds the primary threat expected. Some large hail and a brief tornado could also be seen...along with locally heavy rainfall. Most activity will have either dissipated or moved east of the area by mid morning...with maybe some lingering isolated activity across SERN portions into the early afternoon hrs. A weak upper wave looks to pass over the area Tue night into early Wed morning...with some small chances for convection across central/SERN sections as a result. Substantial SW flow aloft will continue throughout the day on Wed...with mainly dry conditions expected into the early afternoon hrs. This will allow temps to warm into the upper 70s to upper 80s...and dewpts in the 60s and 70s. The aforementioned warm temps/high dewpts will result in impressive ML CAPE over 3k J/kg by mid afternoon. Initially...a capping inversion looks to hold for most of the afternoon hrs on Wed...and with no significant upper disturbance moving overhead...only an isolated TSRA or two looks to develop by mid afternoon. Better forcing will come by late afternoon as a pre-frontal SFC trough drops SE into AR...which looks to be the first focus for convection on Wed afternoon. Additional convection looks to fire further NW with the main SFC cold front later in the evening hrs...with the front then pushing SE into the CWA by the end of the short term period. Given this timing...there may be lowering instability by the time the main forcing moves into the area to trigger the main lines of convection. Even so...think severe weather looks likely given the ample deep layer SHR...and with decent low level SRH. CAPE profiles look impressive...with forecast LI in a general -6 to -12 range. Given this...think all severe weather threats will be possible...especially with the convection firing along the pre- front trough. Damaging winds...large hail...and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Further NW with the frontal convection...expect the threat to transition to mainly a damaging wind threat...along with large hail also possible. While some locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flash flooding...don`t think a widespread heavy rainfall event is expected at this time. Expect the threat for strong to SVR storms to slowing drop SE by the morning hrs on Thu in the early part of the long term. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Calmer conditions will make up much of the long term period, especially when compared to short term. To begin, a surface cold front should be located invof Cntrl/Srn AR, slowly working its way Swrd through the daytime. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to redevelop near and to the S of the boundary beneath a passing upper level disturbance. Therefore rain chances will remain in the forecast on Thursday afternoon and evening across the Srn half of the state. Rain will taper off by Thursday night as the upper level impulse moves away from the region. At this time, organized severe weather appears low. On Friday, NW upper flow will replace zonal flow over the nations mid-section. This will allow surface high pressure to move towards the state from the Plains. Drier and cooler air will advect into the region with the approach of high pressure. Going through the weekend, modest upper level ridging will move into the Plains/MS Valley. This should bring nice, drier and cooler, weather to AR as high pressure settles in overhead. By Monday, the upper ridge axis and surface high will begin to depart the region to the E. Surface winds will switch back to the S and low end PoPs return by Monday as a new upper trough/perhaps closed low moves into the Four Corners region. The warmest day during the period should be Thursday, with highs topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not to surprising the coolest day is expected to be Friday, with high temperatures mainly in the 70s. A slow warming trend will ensue through the weekend into Monday. Low temperatures will be refreshing, with readings mainly in the 50s most mornings, especially Friday morning and beyond. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 85 67 86 60 / 40 10 60 70 Camden AR 87 70 89 66 / 10 30 20 70 Harrison AR 82 60 81 53 / 10 0 60 30 Hot Springs AR 86 66 86 62 / 20 20 40 70 Little Rock AR 88 70 87 65 / 20 30 40 80 Monticello AR 87 73 90 69 / 20 10 20 70 Mount Ida AR 86 65 85 60 / 30 20 50 60 Mountain Home AR 83 60 84 55 / 10 0 70 40 Newport AR 85 67 86 62 / 40 20 60 80 Pine Bluff AR 86 71 88 67 / 10 20 30 80 Russellville AR 86 65 84 58 / 30 10 50 50 Searcy AR 85 67 86 62 / 30 20 50 80 Stuttgart AR 85 71 87 67 / 20 30 40 90 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....70