Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 241031 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
531 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Quiet conditions are ongoing this early Sun morning as SFC high
pressure moves across the region. This SFC high will shift east for
this Sun...with SRLY flow increasing throughout the day. Moisture
levels will increase as a result...ahead of an approaching storm
system to the west.
An upper shortwave trough will lift NE over the central Plains
tonight into Mon...with SFC low pressure over KS moving east towards
MO during the daylight hrs on Mon. A trailing cold front will move
east into AR by Mon afternoon...moving east through the state Mon
afternoon and evening. Expect this front to move east of AR by the
end of the short term period.
Expect widespread convection to develop in vicinity of the EWD
progressing cold front Mon...with most precip expected just behind
this frontal forcing. A few isolated discrete cells may develop
ahead of the front...which look to be the main focus for any SVR Wx
threat.
Intense SW/SRLY flow aloft will bring in plenty of dynamics for SVR
Wx potential...but instability looks to remain the limiting factor
for the overall threat for SVR TSRA. Best combination of instability
and SHR will be across the SERN corner of AR Mon afternoon/evening
along and just ahead of this front. The primary threat expected with
the strongest storms looks like damaging winds...but given the
forecast low level SHR...a few tornadoes could also be seen.
Again...instability looks limited...but there may be enough across
SERN sections to create some isolated SVR storms capable of
producing damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. Expect this threat
for SVR Wx to decrease rapidly behind the front as stability
increases...but there may remain some damaging wind potential with
any established linear convection that may be ongoing along the
front. Beyond the SVR threat...some heavy rainfall will also be
possible...with 1 to 2 inches QPF...with locally higher amounts
possible. Some localized flash flooding may occur as a result.
Breezy SRLY winds will also be seen ahead of this front...with SRLY
winds of 20 to over 30 mph possible starting late tonight through
much of Mon. Gusts may exceed 40 mph at times. As a result...will
post a Wind Adv for at least a majority of the CWA where winds will
be strongest. The threat for SVR Wx and breezy winds will decrease
by late Mon night...with the threat for hazardous weather becoming
low.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
To begin the period, calmer and dry conditions will move in behind a
weather system that affected the state on Monday. High pressure will
control the weather pattern through the period. Mostly sunny skies
are expected with some high clouds possible.
Temperatures will be the coolest to begin the period before warming
above average by the weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be
in the lower 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday before warming
into the mid 60s to lower 80s by Saturday. Overnight low
temperatures will follow a similar trend with lows in the upper 20s
to upper 30s early in the period before rising into the lower 40s to
mid 50s by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Breezy conditions will continue to increase throughout this
Sun...and especially by tonight into early Mon as the pressure
gradient tightens. Gusts may exceed 25 kts by tonight. Chances for
SHRA will also return by late this evening and overnight...with
some MVFR conditions also possible late in the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 62 55 63 45 / 0 50 100 60
Camden AR 66 57 69 45 / 10 30 100 30
Harrison AR 60 51 61 33 / 10 70 90 20
Hot Springs AR 64 55 65 40 / 10 60 100 20
Little Rock AR 65 56 67 44 / 0 50 100 40
Monticello AR 66 57 70 51 / 0 20 100 70
Mount Ida AR 64 55 63 37 / 10 70 100 10
Mountain Home AR 62 52 63 36 / 10 60 100 30
Newport AR 64 52 64 46 / 0 40 90 80
Pine Bluff AR 65 56 69 47 / 0 30 100 60
Russellville AR 64 55 65 37 / 10 70 100 20
Searcy AR 63 53 64 43 / 0 40 100 60
Stuttgart AR 63 55 66 45 / 0 20 100 70
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-063>065-069-103-112-
113-121>123-130-137-138-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...62