474
FXUS64 KLZK 262328
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
628 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Looking at the big picture, a broad upper level trof will remain
over the western 2/3 of the country, with several vigorous
shortwaves rotating thru the trof and lifting into the upper Plains.
The overall pattern thru the period will remain southwesterly aloft
with several shortwaves rippling thru the flow.

At the surface, the forecast area is now entirely in the warm
sector, with a warm front north of the area in MO, and a dryline
located over OK. There has been quite a bit of cloud cover and
convection across portions of the state this morning into early this
afternoon. Of note is an area of partial clearing extending from
south-central AR up to NE Arkansas where temperatures are a bit
warmer than surrounding regions.

Models have been all over the place on instability forecasts for
this afternoon and evening. Observations show quite a bit of
instability in eastern OK, but I believe the model forecast
instability over the western portions of AR are very questionable,
considering the extensive cloud cover and earlier convective
activity.

As for the potential for severe weather this afternoon and tonight,
I am adopting more of a wait and see approach. With the model
instability forecasts all over the board, and sim radar forecasts
quite diverse, I feel like the most realistic scenario will be a
band of convection over western AR extending into north-central AR,
with the possibility of a second band developing from SW Arkansas
into NE Arkansas.

We have collectively been discussing the possibility for instability
being high enough for severe convection this afternoon and tonight.
Our thoughts are that there may be a narrow window of opportunity
late this afternoon into early evening, but if stronger convection
does not develop by then...it likely will not get going in AR.

Severe chances will be on the slate again on Sunday...where it looks
like chances will be much better over a greater portion of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Main feature in the long term will be a storm system in the Plains
dragging a cold front toward Arkansas Sunday night. Ahead of the
front, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread, and some storms
could be severe in the west. This will be a heavy rain event, with
two to more than three inch amounts possible. Some flash flooding
will likely result if this much precipitation materializes.

The system will track toward the upper Midwest and well to the
north. The front will become parallel to a quasizonal flow, and will
stall across the region. This will keep the pattern somewhat
unsettled in the days to follow, with mostly diurnal convection
expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should pop up each
afternoon, and pretty much dissipate after dark.

By Thursday, large scale troughing will build this way from the
Rockies. A new cold front will try to push through from the
northwest, and will bring better chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

Slightly cooler and drier air will follow the front on Friday.
Otherwise, above average temperatures are expected overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SHRA/TSRA continue to move into central and southern terminals
while SHRA continues to move out of northern Arkansas. Rain and
thunderstorms will likely continue to about 06Z/27. Winds will be
out of the south and could be gusty at times. MVFR/IFR conditions
are expected through much of the period with improvements possible
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  82  66  79 /  70  60  20  50
Camden AR         66  84  66  81 /  70  30  10  50
Harrison AR       62  78  63  72 /  20  40  50  90
Hot Springs AR    65  82  66  78 /  80  50  30  70
Little Rock   AR  68  85  67  82 /  70  50  20  60
Monticello AR     69  86  66  84 /  50  20   0  30
Mount Ida AR      64  81  64  76 /  60  60  40  80
Mountain Home AR  63  79  64  75 /  50  50  30  80
Newport AR        67  84  66  81 /  50  50  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     68  85  65  82 /  70  30  10  40
Russellville AR   64  82  65  77 /  70  70  40  80
Searcy AR         65  84  63  80 /  70  60  20  50
Stuttgart AR      69  84  66  81 /  70  40  10  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...73