865
FXUS64 KMAF 011110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

As expected, yesterday`s convection has shoved the dryline westward
early this morning, and is hung up as far west as Carlsbad through
the western high terrain. Between this and brisk southeasterly flow
reinforcing moisture return, the atmosphere is quickly reset and
primed for another round of storms this afternoon. With subtle
cooling aloft thanks to a large scale upper trough pushing into the
western CONUS, lapse rates are a touch more impressive than they
already were yesterday. When the better moisture is factored in as
well, CAPE values will exceed 3000 J/kg along/east of the dryline.
Environmental shear remains on the low side (0-6km shear of only
~20kts...) but with the EL all the way up near 200mb, stronger winds
above 6km can provide additional shear for the top-half of any
convective storms. This should be enough to get splitting storms, in
a similar setup to yesterday. The low level thermal ridge remains
overhead this afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise into the
upper 80s and low 90s by 18z, and with such good moisture,
convective temperature will be easily achieved, with a relatively
uncapped environment. Most HREF members agree in CI around 18-19z,
and further west compared to yesterday, generally between the Davis
Mountains and the Reeves/Pecos County line. Dominant right movers
should take hold again through Pecos County with left movers
shooting in the Permian Basin. With more CAPE and better convergence
along the dryline, storm coverage should be higher than yesterday`s,
and additional cold pool interactions should help initiate more
storms as well as provide locally enhanced low level shear. With any
storms (especially supercells), the main concerns will be strong
wind gusts and large to very large hail (yesterday saw tennis-ball
to baseball sized hail...). However, with less storm interference
and better environmental shear, dominant right movers in Pecos
County may produce a tornado or two. Given the nature of the storm
splitting, it appears that there will be a minima in storm coverage
somewhere in the east-central Permian Basin with left movers focused
more for the west-central Basin and the right movers for the
southern Basin and Stockton Plateau. Either way, with how early the
storms get going, they will be quite progressive and be out of our
jurisdiction by 01-02z this evening.

After yet another muggy night with convective outflow and the LLJ
reinforcing nocturnal moisture, the aforementioned upper trough aids
in more eastward mixing of the dryline for Thursday afternoon into
San Angelo`s area and a much quieter day is the result. Clear skies
and dry air in place helps temperatures soar into the low 90s for
most on Thursday.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

We end the week and head into the weekend with more busy weather. A
cold front will arrive late Thursday and push toward the Pecos River
before stalling Friday. Temperatures look slightly cooler behind the
front with highs in the 80s, but still hot further west with many
locations in the 90s. A few showers and isolated storms are possible
Friday afternoon across mainly the eastern Permian Basin with no
major impacts expected at this time.

Things get a bit more interesting this weekend. The initial front
will likely wash out and most areas will see a return to
southeast winds and increasing low level moisture. At the same
time another cold front is indicated by the models to push through
the PH and into our region by Saturday afternoon. Increasing SW
flow aloft along with an embedded shortwave moving overhead will
help generate showers and storms along the cold front. There is
still quite a bit of disagreement in the models, but some are
indicating at least a couple of rounds of storms, mainly affecting
the Permian Basin. We will continue to fine-tune the forecast,
especially as we get into the range of the CAMs. Severe weather
and flash flooding will be a possibility as it is now May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Low clouds are currently filling in across the eastern Permian
Basin and should bring MVFR CIGs to MAF in the next hour or so.
These clouds will stick around through the morning hours,
gradually breaking up in the late morning. Once these clear, all
sites should stay VFR throughout the day. However, thunderstorm
development is expected at some point early this afternoon near
PEQ/FST, and could impact INK/MAF in the mid/late afternoon.
Unceratinty in timing/location precludes mention at this time, but
gusty/erratic winds are a sure bet near any storms. Will amend as
needed this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

An active weather pattern will bring periods of stronger winds
every few days. This will combine with persistent low RHs to
produce at least near critical fire weather conditions much of the
upcoming week. Wednesday, 20-ft winds will increase over the
Guadalupe Mountains, Sacramento Foothills, and adjacent plains
immediately to the east, combining with very critical fuels in
these areas as ERCs climb over the 90th percentile.

Drier conditions become more widespread Thursday, but stronger
20-ft winds are expected only at the higher elevations. More moist
conditions arrive behind a cold front for most of the area Friday
into the weekend, but higher elevations and areas west of the
Pecos River will remain very dry. Further east, wetting rains are
possible and could alleviate some of the concerns depending on
rain amounts. A stronger storm system Monday could bring more
widespread critical fire weather conditions to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  62  94  59 /  40  30   0   0
Carlsbad                 94  58  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   88  67  97  65 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            91  62  93  59 /  50  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           83  57  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    91  56  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    87  51  84  48 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  62  92  59 /  40  20   0   0
Odessa                   89  63  93  59 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                     94  59  93  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 11
     PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills
     and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16