Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 140530
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Not much to write home about in the short term. WV imagery shows
the west coast trough just off the Bay Area coast, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the
surface, respectable return flow continues. A few mountain wave
clouds are crossing into the Presidio Valley from Mexico, but
otherwise CAVU conditions are resulting in a nice afternoon for the
region.
Tonight, the LLJ will only be 30-35kts, but will continue advecting
Gulf moisture into the east. In the west, surface winds will veer
to west in response to leeside troughing as the Bay Area trough
makes landfall. These winds, and increased boundary layer moisture,
will keep overnight minimums well above normal.
Sunday, the westerlies mentioned above will add a downslope warming
component to the mix, helping increase thicknesses to yield perhaps
the warmest day this spring as highs plateau ~ 10-12F above normal.
Sunday night, return flow continues in the east, advecting 60+F
surface dewpoints up the Pecos River Valley by 12Z Monday. This
will keep overnight lows an average of 13-15F above normal,
especially in the east where better low-level moisture is present.
This will sharpen up a dryline mid-CWA by 12Z Monday, priming the
pump for a severe weather event Monday afternoon in not Midland...
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Monday starts the week off with windy conditions as an upper low
moves just north of the area. A High Wind Watch will be hoisted for
the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains with this forecast package.
Expansion of the watch may be needed for the Davis Mountains and
Eddy County Plains as this event moves into the near term as
confidence is not as high about high winds being seen in those
areas(though it will be quite windy either way). Most other adjacent
plains and lower elevation locales will likely see Wind Advisories
issued for the breezy and gusty winds. Monday afternoon also sees a
dryline take shape north-south through the central Permian Basin
down towards Fort Stockton and Marathon. The position of the dryline
will determine which areas near or just east of the aforementioned
locations see storms, some of which may be severe. The best chances
remains over the eastern counties during the late afternoon and into
the evening.
Winds decrease late Monday night after the passage of a Pacific
front that will reinforce dry air that continues to sit over the
western portions of the CWA. Warm and dry conditions prevail Tuesday
through Thursday with daytime highs reaching into the upper 80s to
low 90s areawide. Ensembles continue to show a cooldown late this
coming week with a backdoor front sliding across the Permian Basin
and SE NM and bringing a chance for rain. However, there remains
some uncertainty regarding both temperatures and which spots
actually see precipitation, so expect this to change over the coming
days.
-Stickney
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024
VFR conditions continue the next 24 hours. Southerly to
southeasterly winds tonight will veer to the west/southwest after
12Z, with elevated and intermittently gusty conditions possible
for CNM/HOB during the afternoon. Gusts diminish after 15/00Z as
winds shift to the southeast at all but CNM/HOB, becoming elevated
at FST due to the return of the nocturnal low-level jet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Southerly to southwest flow beneath a flattened ridge continue this
afternoon leading to temperatures reaching well above normal.
Combined with min RHs in the 10-15% range and already dry fuels,
there is an elevated fire weather concern. This continues into
Sunday as an upper low moves through the Desert Southwest and
approaches the region. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for SE
NM and much of West Texas for Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
The upper low passes just north of the CWA with an associated jet
rounding the southern edge of the system that will move over SE NM
and parts of West Texas. Highest winds will mainly be confined to
the mountains, but the adjacent plains and foothills will still see
gusts between 40-50mph. During this same time, a dryline sharpens on
a north-south line near Midland/Odessa southward towards Fort
Stockton and Marathon. Winds decrease east of this line with better
moisture return and a chance for showers and storms. Fire weather
concerns will be much lower for those areas.
Winds decrease late Monday evening, but the passage of a Pacific
front ushers in more dry air that hampers moisture recovery into
Tuesday morning. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions
will be seen Tuesday as RHs reach critical levels areawide. Winds
remain a factor, but less so compared to Monday. Further fire
weather products will be needed with future updates. Above average
temperatures and dry air with poor overnight recoveries linger
through midweek, further curing fuels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 93 62 92 56 / 0 0 10 20
Carlsbad 88 59 88 49 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 94 63 94 59 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 93 64 98 56 / 0 0 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 79 60 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 87 57 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 87 53 89 43 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 91 62 92 55 / 0 0 10 10
Odessa 91 64 92 56 / 0 0 10 10
Wink 92 61 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower
Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...84