755
FXUS64 KMAF 281725
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

After a busy evening for eastern portions of the area we are in
the clear for a couple of days. A Pacific front has shoved all
low level moisture well east of the area. West winds will be much
lighter this afternoon as the pressure gradient finally weakens.
Highs will be a couple of degrees cooler today for most locations,
but still near normal for late April. The dry air will lead to a
comfortable night with lows by Monday morning in the 40s/50s.
Monday looks quiet as well with fairly light winds again and highs
climbing closer to 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Zonal flow aloft on Tuesday gradually backs to southwesterly for
Wednesday and Thursday as a trough swings through the central
Rockies into the central Plains. Lee troughing induced by the
zonal flow helps pull the dryline back west of the Permian Basin
by Tuesday morning. Without much synoptic aid, widespread storms
aren`t expected but a few weak storms are possible in the eastern
zones Tuesday evening. More rounds of storms are possible off the
dryline both on Wednesday and Thursday with a bit more ascent as
the aforementioned trough moves a little closer. Still, this
feature is too far north to provide much help and storm coverage
may only be a touch higher than Tuesday. The real effect of the
trough is going to be a notable cold front sent into our region
Thursday night. The front essentially washes out the dryline and
with east-southeast flow instilled late Friday, brings good
moisture back into the area. This is just in time for the next
shortwave set to approach on Friday-Saturday, which could be the
next wholesome chance for good rainfall for a larger portion of
the area. Ensembles are always optimistic at these time
ranges...so we`ll see how the forecast trends the next few days.

As for temperatures, the low level thermal ridge reigns dominant
for the middle part of the week and hot temperatures are the
result, especially behind the dryline. Much needed relief comes
with the strong cold front Thursday night that takes high
temperatures from the upper 80s and 90s on Thursday into the 70s
and 80s for Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. West-northwest
winds today will shift to the south-southeast tonight, before
returning to the west on Monday. Aside from some intermittent
gusts this afternoon, winds will be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  88  61  92 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 52  86  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   59  92  66  93 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            56  89  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           52  77  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  84  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    44  83  47  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     54  88  62  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   56  87  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     52  89  59  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84