Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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993 ACUS11 KWNS 020029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020028 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020200- Mesoscale Discussion 0595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...Far Northeast CO...Western and Central KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 172... Valid 020028Z - 020200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells over western KS are expected to persist, with the potential for all severe hazards. An additional severe threat may exist farther north across northwest and north-central KS, downstream of the cluster coming out of northeast CO, and additional watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show pair of well-organized supercells over Logan and Gove Counties in western KS. These supercells are very close to the warm front extending from west to east across the KS, which is likely contributing to both low-level moisture convergence and low-level vorticity. Interactions between these two storms may contribute to some fluctuations in storm intensity, but the overall environment is expected to remain supportive of storm persistence. Additionally, increasing low-level flow over the next few hours will lengthen low-level hodographs, with the low-level kinematic environment becoming more favorable for tornadoes. Regional radar imagery also shows a more linear, forward-propagating cluster of storms moving out of far northeast CO towards far northwest KS. This activity is expected to continue moving southeastward, with the strengthening low-level flow and associated isentropic ascent contributing to storm persistence. Current trajectory takes this cluster north of the warm front, but some interaction with this frontal boundary could occur with more southeastward extent. Hail appears to be the predominant risk with this cluster, although some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly with eastward/southeastward extent. A watch may be needed north of Tornado Watch 172 to address this threat. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39550240 40060155 39719906 38499942 38420118 39550240