Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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586 FXUS64 KMEG 031732 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The latest KNQA radar scan shows a decaying MCS slowly propagating east into eastern Arkansas at this hour. No lightning is currently detected, but that will likely change over the next hour or so as the atmosphere destabilizes. Downstream of the MCS, isolated to scattered showers have developed south of I-40. This activity should continue to fill in over the next couple of hours as daytime heating becomes maximized. Another area of convection has fired up to our south over the past hour and is slowly lifting into north Mississippi. As a result, increased PoPs mainly across north Mississippi to account for latest trends. Hi-res model guidance continues to struggle with the evolution of the aforementioned decaying MCS. Nonetheless, the MCS will likely turn into an MCV by late afternoon and then rotate northeast into middle TN through this evening. A few strong storms could occur, especially near the TN River, where instability will be greatest. Made significant changes to PoPs from now through tomorrow morning. Increased PoPs along and south of I-40 through early afternoon, increased PoPs this evening across west Tennessee, and decreased areawide PoPs through the overnight hours. Due to heavy cloud cover along I-40 this morning, went ahead and also decreased high temperatures a few degrees. The rest of the forecast is on track. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A series of upper-level disturbances will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 7 days. This will result in the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will average near normal to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends early this morning show showers and thunderstorms occurring near the Tennessee River. This activity is associated with a shortwave trough beginning to lift away from the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a couple of MCS`s are producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of Northeast Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. A mild and humid airmass is in place across the area with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the 60s. Short-term models including CAMs indicate nocturnal convection should continue to diminish over the area this morning. Another weak shortwave trough combined with leftover convective boundaries and diurnal instability may be sufficient to produce additional showers and thunderstorms during peak afternoon heating, especially east of the Mississippi River. HREF Grand Ensemble spread indicates surface-based CAPE values ranging generally between 1000-1800 J/kg while 0-6 km shear is expected to remain relatively weak around 20 kts. A couple of strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall may be possible this afternoon. Subtle shortwaves within weak southwest flow aloft combined with an unstable airmass will produce additional showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South into the upcoming weekend. A small area of 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25-30 kts combined with sufficient instability may result the development of a few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as a cold front approaches northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Confidence in the overall severe threat remains low for Saturday due to a lack of model consensus this morning. Long-term models indicate an active and unsettled pattern will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as the area continues to remain within broad southwest flow aloft. Increasing shear combined with a warm and unstable airmass suggest a potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorms may exist towards the middle of next week. This potential threat will continue to be monitored in subsequent model runs. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 TSRA potential has decreased at MEM given a weakening upstream MCV and stabilizing effects of -RA and cloud cover. However, expect scattered SHRA to increase in coverage over north central and northeast MS, aided by surface heating and convergence along the northern periphery of an MCS over central MS. VFR over east central AR should spread into the MEM by late afternoon, and continue through the late evening inbound push. Clearing aloft and weak surface winds will favor low stratus formation at all TAF sites prior to 12Z. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB