Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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383 FXUS64 KMEG 290306 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1006 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A slow moving cold front is stretched across the Central Plains. An associated dry line is stretched through Oklahoma into Texas. This dryline is firing off convection across the southeast United States as of 10 PM. Severe weather parameters across the Mid-South however, are winding down per latest mesoanalysis. 0-6km bulk shear is around 30kts, MLCAPE is 1500 J/kg or less (with highest values along and west of the Mississippi River) and mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 C/km. Low level lapse rates continue to stabilize, which would result in any convection developing to be elevated. The front and associated dry line has really slowed due to a strong ridge encompassing the east coast. Confidence is low in severe storms this evening as the slowed down timing shortens the severe weather window of ingredients available. PoPs were trimmed a good bit as the line continues to slow and winds were adjusted for the same reason. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s as cloud cover will hold steady. DNM && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through the Mid-South through the late afternoon and early evening hours today. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to advance toward the Mid-South later tonight, bringing the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the primary threats. A warm and wet pattern is expected to persist through the remainder of the week. Higher rain chances are forecast on Friday ahead of the next cold front, with somewhat cooler and drier conditions being expected next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South are in the mid to upper 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers have recently popped up on radar that are expected to continue into the late afternoon/early evening hours, so be sure to bring an umbrella with you this afternoon and early evening if you have any outdoor plans. Early afternoon water vapor analysis depicts that an upper low pressure system was moving northeastward across portions of the central and northern Plains. An associated mid-level shortwave disturbance located across portions of western Texas is forecast to continue moving northeastward. Ahead of this disturbance, convective activity is expected to initiate along a remnant QLCS that is currently located across eastern OK/TX and western AR. The line of showers and thunderstorms is then expected move eastward through Arkansas this afternoon and evening, likely approaching the western periphery of our forecast area later tonight. The primary threats with this activity appear to be damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of large hail. The line of storms should weaken as it crosses the Mississippi River, where instability looks to wane with eastward extent. In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible considering the fact that precipitable water values of around 1.6 inches from the HREF grand ensemble exceed the 90th percentile value for the date. The CAMs have depicted scattered showers and thunderstorms could form tomorrow along a remnant convective outflow from the aforementioned line. Given that PWATs remain elevated during this period, locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern. The cold front associated with this system looks approach portions of western and central Arkansas Monday night and lifts north as a warm front on Tuesday, as the shortwave exits the Mid-South. Thereafter, small disturbances in the zonal flow pattern will result in rain chances remaining elevated through the remainder of the week. A better chance of precipitation is expected to occur on Friday as a cold front, associated with a mid-level trough, moves toward the Mid-South. The passage of the cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across the Midsouth tonight, approaching JBR around 04z, MEM around midnight and MKL by 09z. Ahead of the line south winds will prevail around 10kt with gusts up to 20kt. LLWS is also expected at MKL ahead of the line. Brief IFR or LIFR conditions due to diminished vis as well as gusty wind(primarily from the west) is possible in association with any on station thunderstorms. Thunderstorms look less likely at MKL. TUP probably won`t be impacted overnight. Cigs will gradually lower to IFR levels tonight and slowly improve to MVFR levels tomorrow. Periods of showers will continue through the day. Expect south to southwest wind tomorrow 10kt or less. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...JDS